Anurag's Blog

"Innovation distinguishes between a leader and a follower," Steve Jobs.

2010-06-18T15:09:00.001+05:30

And how well these words describe the man himself. For a man who takes home an annual salary of $1, it is surprising that Jobs regularly is in the list of the world's rich and powerful.

In his resume, Jobs says his objective is to look for a fixer-upper with a solid foundation. "Am willing to tear down walls, build bridges, and light fires. I have great experience, lots of energy, a bit of that "vision thing" and I'm not afraid to start from the beginning."

Born in Green Bay, Wisconsin to Joanne Simpson and an Egyptian Arab father, Jobs is the chief executive officer of Apple Computer and Pixar Animation Studios. Jobs was adopted by Paul and Clara Jobs of Mountain View, Santa Clara County, California.

Jobs lives with his wife, Laurene Powell and their three children in Silicon Valley. He also has a daughter, Lisa Jobs from a previous relationship.

Here is Steve Jobs' Commencement address at Stanford University where he speaks about the highs and lows of life, how to counter challenges and how to fight the odds to come out victorious. Jobs delivered this speech on June 12, 2005.

I am honoured to be with you today at your commencement from one of the finest universities in the world.

I never graduated from college. Truth be told, this is the closest I've ever gotten to a college graduation. Today I want to tell you three stories from my life. That's it. No big deal. Just three stories.

The first story is about connecting the dots.

I dropped out of Reed College after the first 6 months, but then stayed around as a drop-in for another 18 months or so before I really quit. So why did I drop out?

It started before I was born.

My biological mother was a young, unwed college graduate student, and she decided to put me up for adoption.

She felt very strongly that I should be adopted by college graduates, so everything was all set for me to be adopted at birth by a lawyer and his wife.

Except that when I popped out they decided at the last minute that they really wanted a girl.

So my parents, who were on a waiting list, got a call in the middle of the night asking: "We have an unexpected baby boy; do you want him?" They said: "Of course."

My biological mother later found out that my mother had never graduated from college and that my father had never graduated from high school. She refused to sign the final adoption papers.

She only relented a few months later when my parents promised that I would someday go to college.

And 17 years later, I did go to college. But I naively chose a college that was almost as expensive as Stanford, and all of my working-class parents' savings were being spent on my college tuition.

After six months, I couldn't see the value in it.

I had no idea what I wanted to do with my life and no idea how college was going to help me figure it out.

And here I was spending all of the money my parents had saved their entire life. So I decided to drop out and trust that it would all work out OK.

It was pretty scary at the time, but looking back it was one of the best decisions I ever made.

The minute I dropped out I could stop taking the required classes that didn't interest me, and begin dropping in on the ones that looked interesting.

It wasn't all romantic. I didn't have a dorm room, so I slept on the floor in friends' rooms, I returned coke bottles for the 5 deposits to buy food with, and I would walk the 7 miles across town every Sunday night to get one good meal a week at the Hare Krishna temple.

I loved it.

And much of what I stumbled into by following my curiosity and intuition turned out to be priceless later on.

Let me give you one example: Reed College at that time offered perhaps the best calligraphy instruction in thecountry.

Throughout the campus every poster, every label on every drawer, was beautifully hand calligraphed.

Because I had dropped out and didn't have to take the normal classes, I decided to take a calligraphy class to learn how to do this.

I learned about serif and san serif typefaces, about varying the amount of space between different letter combinations, about what makes great typography great.

It was beautiful, historical, artistically subtle in a way that science can't capture, and I found it fascinating.

None of this had even a hope of any practical application in my life. But ten years later, when we were designing the first Macintosh computer, it all came back to me.

And we designed it all into the Mac.

It was the first computer with beautiful typography. If I had never dropped in on that single course in college, the Mac would have never had multiple typefaces or proportionally spaced fonts.

And since Windows just copied the Mac, its likely that no personal computer would have them.

If I had never dropped out, I would have never dropped in on this calligraphy class, and personal computers might not have the wonderful typography that they do.

Of course it was impossible to connect the dots looking forward when I was in college.

But it was very, very clear looking backwards ten years later.

Again, you can't connect the dots looking forward; you can only connect them looking backwards.

So you have to trust that the dots will somehow connect in your future.

You have to trust in something -- your gut, destiny, life, karma, whatever.

This approach has never let me down, and it has made all the difference in my life.

My second story is about love and loss.

I was lucky -- I found what I loved to do early in life. Woz and I started Apple in my parents garage when I was 20. We worked hard, and in 10 years Apple had grown from just the two of us in a garage into a $2 billion company with over 4,000 employees.

We had just released our finest creation - the Macintosh -- a year earlier, and I had just turned 30. And then I got fired.

How can you get fired from a company you started? Well, as Apple grew we hired someone who I thought was very talented to run the company with me, and for the first year or so things went well.

But then our visions of the future began to diverge and eventually we had a falling out.

When we did, our board of directors sided with him.

So at 30 I was out. And very publicly out. What had been the focus of my entire adult life was gone, and it was devastating.

I really didn't know what to do for a few months. I felt that I had let the previous generation of entrepreneurs down -- that I had dropped the baton as it was being passed to me.

I met with David Packard and Bob Noyce and tried to apologise for screwing up so badly.

I was a very public failure, and I even thought about running away from the valley. But something slowly began to dawn on me -- I still loved what I did.

The turn of events at Apple had not changed that one bit. I had been rejected, but I was still in love. And so I decided to start over.

I didn't see it then, but it turned out that getting fired from Apple was the best thing that could have ever happened to me.

The heaviness of being successful was replaced by the lightness of being a beginner again, less sure about everything.

It freed me to enter one of the most creative periods of my life.

During the next five years, I started a company named NeXT, another company named Pixar, and fell in love with an amazing woman who would become my wife.

Pixar went on to create the worlds first computer animated feature film, Toy Story, and is now the most successful animation studio in the world.

In a remarkable turn of events, Apple bought NeXT, I returned to Apple, and the technology we developed at NeXT is at the heart of Apple's current renaissance.

And Laurene and I have a wonderful family together.

I'm pretty sure none of this would have happened if I hadn't been fired from Apple. It was awful tasting medicine, but I guess the patient needed it.

Sometimes life hits you in the head with a brick.

Don't lose faith. I'm convinced that the only thing that kept me going was that I loved what I did.

You've got to find what you love. And that is as true for your work as it is for your lovers.

Your work is going to fill a large part of your life, and the only way to be truly satisfied is to do what you believe is great work.

And the only way to do great work is to love what you do.

If you haven't found it yet, keep looking. Don't settle.

As with all matters of the heart, you'll know when you find it. And, like any great relationship, it just gets better and better as the years roll on.

So keep looking until you find it.

Don't settle.

My third story is about death.

When I was 17, I read a quote that went something like: "If you live each day as if it was your last, someday you'll most certainly be right."

It made an impression on me, and since then, for the past 33 years, I have looked in the mirror every morning and asked myself: "If today were the last day of my life, would I want to do what I am about to do today?"

And whenever the answer has been "No" for too many days in a row, I know I need to change something.

Remembering that I'll be dead soon is the most important tool I've ever encountered to help me make the big choices in life.

Because almost everything -- all external expectations, all pride, all fear of embarrassment or failure -- these things just fall away in the face of death, leaving only what is truly important.

Remembering that you are going to die is the best way I know to avoid the trap of thinking you have something to lose.

You are already naked. There is no reason not to follow your heart.

About a year ago I was diagnosed with cancer. I had a scan at 7:30 in the morning, and it clearly showed a tumor on my pancreas.

I didn't even know what a pancreas was. The doctors told me this was almost certainly a type of cancer that is incurable, and that I should expect to live no longer than three to six months.

My doctor advised me to go home and get my affairs in order, which is doctor's code for prepare to die.

It means to try to tell your kids everything you thought you'd have the next 10 years to tell them in just a few months.

It means to make sure everything is buttoned up so that it will be as easy as possible for your family. It means to say your goodbyes.

I lived with that diagnosis all day.

Later that evening I had a biopsy, where they stuck an endoscope down my throat, through my stomach and into my intestines, put a needle into my pancreas and got a few cells from the tumor.

I was sedated, but my wife, who was there, told me that when they viewed the cells under a microscope the doctors started crying because it turned out to be a very rare form of pancreatic cancer that is curable with surgery.

I had the surgery and I'm fine now.

This was the closest I've been to facing death, and I hope its the closest I get for a few more decades.

Having lived through it, I can now say this to you with a bit more certainty than when death was a useful but purely intellectual concept:

No one wants to die. Even people who want to go to heaven don't want to die to get there.

And yet death is the destination we all share. No one has ever escaped it. And that is as it should be, because Death is very likely the single best invention of Life. It is Life's change agent. It clears out the old to make way for the new.

Right now the new is you, but someday not too long from now, you will gradually become the old and be cleared away. Sorry to be so dramatic, but it is quite true.

Your time is limited, so don't waste it living someone else's life. Don't be trapped by dogma - which is living with the results of other people's thinking.

Don't let the noise of others' opinions drown out your own inner voice. And most important, have the courage to follow your heart and intuition.

They somehow already know what you truly want to become. Everything else is secondary.

When I was young, there was an amazing publication called The Whole Earth Catalog, which was one of the bibles of my generation.

It was created by a fellow named Stewart Brand not far from here in Menlo Park, and he brought it to life with his poetic touch.

This was in the late 1960's, before personal computers and desktop publishing, so it was all made with typewriters, scissors, and polaroid cameras.

It was sort of like Google in paperback form, 35 years before Google came along: it was idealistic, and overflowing with neat tools and great notions.

Stewart and his team put out several issues of The Whole Earth Catalog, and then when it had run its course, they put out a final issue.

It was the mid-1970s, and I was your age.

On the back cover of their final issue was a photograph of an early morning country road, the kind you might find yourself hitchhiking on if you were so adventurous.

Beneath it were the words: "Stay Hungry. Stay Foolish." It was their farewell message as they signed off.

Stay Hungry.

Stay Foolish.

And I have always wished that for myself.

And now, as you graduate to begin anew, I wish that for you.

Stay Hungry. Stay Foolish.

Thank you.

Over 50% of petrol prices are made of taxes!!!

2010-03-26T13:18:00.004+05:30

India’s bureaucratic albatross

2010-02-27T10:07:00.003+05:30

The following article is by Tavleen Singh taken from Indian Express.

Tavleen Singh

Every time I deal with Indian officials I become so depressed that I almost need therapy. As a reckless optimist and a proud Indian, I keep hoping that I will one day go into a government office and notice the changes that are necessary if India is to drag herself out of poverty, illiteracy and corruption. Having just last week had dealings with officials in various government departments, I can only report the opposite. Our officials remain untouched by technology, modernity, national interest or higher ideals. So I endorse from the bottom of my heart a new report that concludes that our bureaucrats are the worst in Asia. The report is the result of a survey of 12 Asian economies done last year by the Political and Economic Risk Consultancy based in Hong Kong, and although bits of it have found their way into Indian newspapers, there has been not nearly as much fuss as there should have been about a report that shames India.

The report blames India’s ‘suffocating bureaucracy’ for us falling behind countries like Vietnam, Bangladesh, Bhutan and Myanmar in providing our people with minimal standards of healthcare, sanitation and education. Examine just the sad fact that 43 per cent of Indian children under the age of five are underweight compared with 20 per cent in Vietnam and 14 per cent in Bhutan and you understand what we are up against. It is not because of a shortage of funds that millions of Indians are forced to live in conditions of shameful poverty and degradation. The Government of India spent Rs 4 trillion on various poverty alleviation programmes last year. The report points out that if even half this money had been distributed among our estimated 60 million poor households, they would each get Rs 80 a day and so rise above the poverty line. Our own Planning Commission pointed this out more than a decade ago but because there has not been the smallest attempt to get our babu-log to work more efficiently, nothing has changed.

The result is that our bureaucrats and the army of petty officials that work under them have remained mired in systems that make the simplest procedure into a long and difficult thing. One of the offices I had to deal with last week was the Regional Passport Office in Delhi. It was hell. There were queues for coupons that allowed you to join queues to enter the building, that led you to other queues that led to a maze of windows behind which sat bored officials. There was no system. If I had not had the help of a guide, I think I may have queued for days, as others do, and taken months to get my ‘tatkaal’ (at once) passport. My English brother-in-law did not even need to go to the British High Commission to renew his. He filled his form online and in three days he had his new passport.

Indian government departments have computers today and access to the Internet, but they seem not to understand that this should put an end to filling endless forms. And, other useless procedures. If things are bad in Delhi, it is hard to even begin to describe how bad they are in the provinces. I have been into provincial government departments and provincial courts in which they are still using ancient typewriters. Then, there are the filthy working conditions that get filthier in our state capitals. Rotting garbage, stray animals, dusty furniture, wires hanging everywhere and mountains of waste paper. The general impression is of a country falling to pieces and not one that harbours dreams of becoming an economic superpower.

The reason why this column bangs on and on about the need for urgent administrative reforms is because without them we can do almost nothing else. It is not just civilian government departments that are mired in 18th-century systems, but even those that deal with national security. Bad governance is a pernicious, pervasive disease. If you want proof, all you need to do is spend five minutes observing procedures in your nearest police station. That is all the time you need to discover that it is not just the absence of modern weapons that handicap our police when they are dealing with Islamist terrorists. It is incompetence enforced by convoluted and confused procedures.

Having covered governance and politics for more than 20 years, it is my humble view that India could become an economic superpower with clean air and water, magnificent new cities and a healthy, literate population, if we could make our officials do their jobs properly. Dr Manmohan Singh knows this and has been talking about the importance of administrative reforms since the first press conference he gave after he became Prime Minister in 2004. Why does he do nothing about it?

LIFE-CYLE

2010-02-19T09:50:00.000+05:30

Just exactly as if you are landing a spaceship from another galaxy, your soul enters your body and lands here on Earth. Perhaps you come from out of nowhere, out of nothingness.
Or else you had a previous existence somewhere, in another realm or in this realm, and you have forgotten it.
Perhaps you land here of your own free choice.
Or some cosmic force some karma beyond you causes you to land on this planet; and you have no choice. No matter. This is Earth. You land and stay for a while.

You come here to do certain specific things.
You may have one task or many. Your tasks may be obvious to you or you may need time, effort, maybe struggle even to clarify your tasks.
You may never quite even clarify your task until the moment your time in this body ends.
You may work on your task for years before you realize, “This is my task.”
The tasks you came to perform may take the whole of your life or be done in an instant.
You may be aware you are performing your life task while you do it.
You may perform your task quickly, hardly noticing anything special, unaware you are doing the task you came to do while you do it.
Your task may be so easy, obvious and natural, you never even wonder, "What is my task?"
Your unique blend of talents and interests may lead you to your task and you just do it.
Or, your task may be a constant, unpleasant struggle you fight every step of the way.
Your task may be noble and wonderful and gain you recognition, rewards and honors.
Or, it may be simple, totally unnoticeable by anyone else.

You will be born with a powerful innate desire to remain alive. You will do almost anything to continue living. At some point you may discover some limits, and allow your life to end.

Every thought you have, every action you take, every feeling you perceive is an experience.
Experiences are neither good nor evil. Some experiences are short, some are long.
Some experiences will be fun, others will be excruciating.
Sometimes experiences seem interconnected, sometimes they seem random.
They are simply experiences.

Your experiences will come to you through four modalities: physical, emotional, mental and spiritual.
Your body will give you physical messages of sensation, movement, pain and pleasure.
Your emotional mechanism’s feelings will attract you and repel you in different directions, sometimes conflicting.
Your mind’s thoughts will make logical inferences and judgments about your experience.
Your soul’s intuitions will guide you to realize the deepest subtleties of your experience and its meaning.

Some of your experiences will be difficult. They will bring you pain and suffering.
You may wish with all your heart that some experience did not come your way.
You may find joy in the challenge of an experience, even when the pain is most severe.
Each difficult experience is a challenge, an opportunity to continue.

You will have the experience of choosing or selecting. More than one viable option will lie before you.
You will experience weighing the advantages and disadvantages of each, as best you can.
You will perceive yourself picking one and letting go of the other.
Some experiences of deciding will be very difficult; others scarcely worth noting.
Your decisions will have consequences.
The consequences of a choice may be significant or trivial.
The ultimate consequences of a choice may be very different from their first appearance.

You will experience a process of change in yourself.
One moment you may be paralyzed with fear of what lies ahead; the next moment you will feel confident and knowledgeable having walked through the fear.
The change may come gradually with no clear moment or division.
Whether the outcome you receive is what you were hoping for or very different, you will grow through each experience.

You will experience stages in your life. You begin as a single cell and grow until you are born as a small infant. You continue to grow through the life-cycle for as long as you survive: childhood, adolescence, young adulthood, adulthood, maturity, super-maturity, elderhood, and frailty.
You may not live through all of the available stages. Each segment contains physical, emotional, mental and spiritual growth experiences unique to itself.
Stages may end and begin suddenly, or segué into one another gradually.
As you conclude a stage you may feel relief or remorse that it is over.
Once you move through a stage, it is over; you cannot go back.

You will receive assistance through this process. You will find various teachers and mentors
who will share their experiences and help you read the signposts along your way. You will have birth parents who will be your central guides; or you will find surrogates for them. If you do not find another person to be your guide, you may find you can look deep within to find guidance.

You will find diverse modes through which to exchange information with other beings. You will learn spoken and written languages.
You will find ways to communicate with your body. You will communicate many things through your actions. You will discover a variety of visual, auditory and tactile arts through which to express your thoughts and feelings.
You may also discern very subtle, almost unnamable communications which can be the most powerful.

Every experience requires abilities. You will master diverse skills for an endless array of available activities.
You will have innate talents for some skills; they will come to you so easily they seem automatic.
Others will require many hours or even years to master; even after much practice, you may never become proficient at them.

You will participate in games at every stage of life.
You will play with others or by yourself in a variety of contests.
Some games will be fun; some will be deadly serious. Some games will be highly competitive; others will be totally noncompetitive.
You may compete individually or as a team, against others or only against yourself.
Some games will offer physical or material rewards or acclaim from others if you are successful at them.

You will study diverse subjects, each of which attempts to explain some details of how the world works. You may study them in a school or by your own investigation.
You will acquire minimal knowledge of some, and you will dive deeply in others.
You will learn aspects of mathematics, geography, physics, sociology, economics, biology, astronomy, anthropology, history, engineering, the arts, chemistry, philosophy, and religion.

You will be inclined to produce something or to provide a service for which you receive compensation.
Your work will earn you the food and shelter you need to survive and less essential things for your enjoyment.
You may work many long hours each day or a much smaller time segment. Your work may be an important component of your life task. Or, your work may ensure your physical survival or comfort, allowing you to fulfill the tasks you came here to do.

You will find a group of individuals to which you feel connected, either by birth, or by affinity.
You will experience a bond with the other members of this tribe or with the tribal entity itself.
You will be subject to the rules your tribe makes.
You will have a position within the tribe based on your birth or your talents. Your position will affect your activities within the tribe and throughout your life. You may find you are a part of more than one tribe or that your tribe is part of a tribal confederation.

You will find deities to which to attach your greatest fears and devotions.
You may have one god or many. You may learn about your god or gods from others or you may experience them yourself. Your gods may be attached specifically to your tribe or they may claim a wider domain. Your gods may be projections of human experience or they may be something beyond human experience with a reality all their own.

At certain special moments of your life you will mark transitions: you will sing, you will dance, you will talk to your gods, and you will do special rituals to celebrate.
You may celebrate alone or in a group.
You will celebrate those moments when you or someone in your tribe passes from one stage of the growth process to another.
Special good times and special bad times call for celebrations. Repeating seasons of each year ask for celebrations as well.

You will be drawn to certain individuals with whom you will share some of your experiences more closely. You will experience strong connections with some of the friends you find. Some will remain friends for a short time, while others may remain close to you for long periods.

You will be drawn to bond strongly with a partner. Like friends, mates may remain for short or long periods of time. Your mate may be your closest, special friend or a friend with whom you share a set of experiences. You may have one mate for your lifetime or more than one mates at different times.

You will earn rewards for your work or in payment for your other activities. Some wealth will have material value which you can exchange for physical objects or services you desire or which your tribe convinces you, you desire.
Other types of wealth are more subtle and not exchangeable. You will decide which types of wealth you will pursue and how vigorously to pursue each of them.

You will exert control through your physical being, your wealth, your office, your abilities, your personal energy or your facility for managing other people.
With this power you will make some things happen the way you want them to happen.
If your power is great enough, others will do what you would like them to do, even if it is not in their own best interest.

You will experience delights of the senses. Food, touch, music, aroma, nature, movement, art and dance will intensify your enjoyment of your time here.

You will feel an intense yearning of your body to touch another person most deeply. The intensity of that touch may take the experience beyond the body, to bond closely with the other person or to procreate, to make the life-cycle begin anew.

You will experience the urge to create your own space where you spend most of your time, where you belong, where you experience roots. It may be in the place of your origin or you may feel compelled to travel elsewhere to create it. You may wish to share your home with those closest to you.

You will express yourself or create something existing independently of yourself. What you form may last for generations or for only a moment. The content of your expression may take physical form or it may reach out through other media.

You will feel the urge to show others whatever you have earned, whatever you have created, whatever you have learned, whatever you have become. You may wish to display it publicly, to have others to view it. Or, you may display it privately just for yourself or a few others.

As your experiences broaden, you will become familiar with experience itself. You will recognize its ebb and flow, and you will become more comfortable with its changes. You may experience the desire to share this wisdom you accumulate with others.

You will do things your tribe decided was forbidden or others told you is wrong. You may do some things that something within you says you should not do. You will test some of the limits by lying, cheating, stealing, or doing other things that may cause pain. You may get caught by those in power and you may have to pay a penalty.

You will participate in the birth process and the child rearing process. You may give birth to a child. You may take a central role in guiding a child through life’s stages. You may experience parenting as bringing whatever you create into existence.

You will feel impelled to share some of what you learn through life’s experience with others. You may teach in a classroom or through any mode of communications available to you.

You will experience the need to let go of some things. You will discharge waste from your body, from your physical surroundings, from your emotional apparatus, from your mind and from your spirit. You will seek ways to discharge your wastes in a manner that is safe for yourself and your environment.

You will experience disease, pain, or sickness in yourself, in those around you or even in the whole planet.
You will feel the urge to find remedies and treatments, emotional support, and focused energy to aid in the healing process.

In some activities, you will not reach the goal you desired. You will feel pain at your failure. At times, the pain of failure will become very severe.

Everything you have is impermanent. Things you work for and you value will not remain with you forever. People close to you will die. You will feel pain with loss.

At times your emotional mode will become extremely highly charged. You will be moved to cry, either in pain or in joy or in some mixture of both.

You will experience the urge to connect intensely in physical, emotional, mental and spiritual modes.
Your love toward other beings, nature, gods, or life itself will draw you very close to the other, to identify with it most intimately or to lose yourself in it.

You will become comfortable with the diversity among other beings. You will experience accepting other beings exactly as they are, in their own unique perfection, exactly as you would like them to accept you as you are.

You will go through fundamental alterations in the quality of your experience either spontaneously or as a result of prayer, meditation, ritual, song, or special foods. You will experience great love, wisdom, serenity, or connection to a god or nature.
Experiencing altered states of consciousness will affect all of your other experiences.
You will experience yourself transformed into a different being.

The limits of your experience will expand to include intuition or a transcending of this realm or a oneness with something much greater than yourself.
You may experience yourself leaving your body or knowing things before they occur.
You may experience powerful synchronicity. You may lose your sense of yourself as an independent being and experience yourself as one with the infinite wholeness of the universe.

You will experience the urge to pass on the tale of your lifetime.
You may tell your story to those most likely to remember it or you may transmit it in some other artistic form.

You will leave your body. Everyone else will experience your body becoming lifeless and begin to decay. You will no longer be present in this plane in your physical form, but some aspects of your emotional, mental and spiritual modes may continue to be experienced by others.

Your emotional, mental or spiritual modes will enter some sort of afterlife. You may be aware of your continuity between this lifetime and the next realm or you may not.
You may experience reincarnation into the body of another being and begin another lifetime.
The nature of your next realm may be determined by your activities and experiences in this lifetime. The nature of the next realm may be extremely subtle and indescribable.

Those who knew you will recall who you were, what you did, what you gave and the qualities you manifested.
If you physically parented another, your genetic material will continue within them as well.
Others’ remembering you will continue to affect them directly and the whole planet indirectly in subtle and not so subtle ways.

The Return of Malthus

2009-09-28T08:31:00.001+05:30

For those of you who are hearing of this gentleman for the first time, he was the 19th century scholar who postulated (the Malthusian Theory), that nature will keep producing population growth, until it creates a resource crunch, which will then create a series of natural calamities, decimating the population and setting off a new cycle.

Intuitively, he found a lot of adherents, because in the old, pre-industrial, deflationary economy, this was actually true; till man learnt ‘systematic innovation’ and started to create new professions and economics became a tool in his hands to achieve progress.

After 1850, the world learnt about inflation, monetary policy and the Industrial Revolution, which created the modern era. Thereafter, the ‘natural limits’ to any constraint started to shift outwards, until 150 years later, we have started to believe that even a desperately poor country like India has a hope of beating the Malthusian Theory.

After Japan, it became the done thing to argue that human ingenuity would be able to beat all known (resource) constraints. You could have a tiny island nation with almost no natural resources, and the dubious distinction of having a quarter of all known natural disasters, which could grow to be the most productive nation in the world, by all known measures of savings and wealth accumulation.

As always, we Indians learn the wrong lessons. We extrapolated this to tell ourselves that our huge population would never hit a resource crunch, and that our own ingenuity would always delay the onset of Armageddon.

We forgot that every time man beat the Malthusian clock, then it was because he had a lot of time to see the threat and react to it.

This time, global warming will set off a series of events that might not give us enough time to react. If the current El Nino effect turns out to be a regular affair, how many years of 60 per cent monsoon deficits can we survive?

The current monsoon deficit may well turn out to be the most comprehensive, countrywide drought that we have seen in the last 100 years. We have been following coal-based energy usage, refusing to give up our right to pollute, with the “dog in the manger” attitude that it was the West that had done the most damage till now. But the worst affected will be us; the frail, weak uptick that we have seen these last 10 years, will be over-shadowed by what follows.

If we have three monsoon failures in a row, do we have the desalination industry that will produce enough clean, potable water to quench an entire nation’s thirst? How quickly do we have communication systems to create a culture of rain harvesting, water conservation/recycling etc.? No doubt, Israel has beaten all limitations to agricultural productivity, but how quickly can we duplicate those achievements?

In the short run, we will need to quickly create a market for water. There is no way you can tell a population that something has suddenly become precious, without putting a price to it.

The reason this will not happen is this: Mamata Banerjee/The Left/The BJP will politicise the issue. Just as any concessions given to the Kyoto negotiations is seen as a sign of weakness. I am very sure that no national consensus on water will be built, until it is too late.

This time, the consequence will not be economic, but humanitarian. Geopolitical think-tanks have postulated that India will be one of the worst-affected victims of global warming, with an estimated 100 million people dying.

If 2009 is to water, what 1991 was to forex, then we have the same man-in-charge. The PM hopefully has the same understanding of this problem that he had of the forex crunch. Certainly, he has the mandate to move swiftly on this issue. He just needs to tick off the following policy prescriptions:

* Get off your high horse on the Kyoto negotiations. It makes no sense to defend our right to pollute just because the West had done so;
* The country that gets off the ground first, on ‘alternate energy’, will see technological leadership in one of the most important pillars of economic progress in the current century — clean energy. The solar mission, if it is serious, is a step in the right direction. It needs to be followed up with the development of a quasi-fiscal investment market that subsidises the excess capital cost of solar energy, leaving enough space for cost-led innovation;
* Then focus on the clean energy applications. The first would be a full commodity market in water: just make water enormously profitable to everyone;
* Create a panel of IDFC-like nodal investment institutions, whose bonds have 200 per cent weighted tax-free deduction, i.e. for every Rs 100 subscribed to the bonds, you get Rs 200 as deduction (far better than raising the taxable limit). That provides a 70 per cent subsidy to the capital cost of solar power, which the institution channelizes as debt to the sector. Set high debt norms with long paybacks for eligible projects.
* Now let a thousand flowers bloom. Include the desalination industry in this panel of clean energy users. Create a pseudo-market in “water paper”, where credits are given to those who recycle industrial (waste) water, converting it to agricultural-grade clean water. This should create millions of recycling units, mostly based on solar applications, a variant of the solar water heating systems that have been so successful in rural areas;
* Promote the same ‘water paper’ to create a micro-irrigation industry, through which farmers can buy entitlement to water through the adoption of micro-irrigation techniques. Target subsidies through a small set of producers, where the leakages would be less;
* The first step is to create a sense of crisis, before a real one is created (I hope I have not spoken too late). The current monsoon may be typical of many more to come, and we will need a typical Dhirubhai Ambani overkill: create a giant capacity, 100 times the water needs of Delhi, then get to work at making it dependent on clean energy, maybe solar.

The problem with a product market for water is that the (commodity) prices will be very volatile, with prices collapsing during a good monsoon. So it has to be an investment-led market, not a product-market, i.e. the capital cost would be contributed through a market instrument, similar to the timeshare industry, or the one-time premium insurance products. If all sides of the industry are left open to market pricing, then there would be enough space for innovation to create a spectacular winner. A company that either reduces the cost of the project, or which can reduce the cost of capital, or which can extract other operating efficiencies, will find itself at the top of the industry.

“The cost of communication will go to zero”, said Ambani to a new recruit in 1989, when asked about the next big thing for the ‘90s. For the new millennium, Reliance should have been working at taking the cost of energy to zero. Certainly, if it can take the cost of water to zero, it would have made every Indian its customer: another Dhirubhai dream.

There is more greatness for anyone interested. A company that sits at the heart of all Indian energy usage is bound to be the next Reliance (if it isn’t Reliance itself). 80 per cent of the energy used in India’s villages, goes into water management. Think of the economic potential that will get unlocked by someone who takes that out.

10 Ways To Get Rich By Warren Buffet

2009-09-17T09:37:00.000+05:30

With an estimated fortune of $62 billion, Warren Buffett is the richest man in the entire world. In 1962, when he began buying stock in Berkshire Hathaway, a share cost $7.50. Today, Warren Buffett, 78, is Berkshire's chairman and CEO, and one share of the company's class A stock worth close to $119,000. He credits his astonishing success to several key strategies, which he has shared with writer Alice Schroeder. She spend hundreds of hours interviewing the Sage of Omaha for the new authorized biography The Snowball. Here are some of Warren Buffett's money-making secrets -- and how they could work for you.

1. Reinvest Your Profits: When you first make money, you may be tempted to spend it. Don't. Instead, reinvest the profits. Warren Buffett learned this early on. In high school, he and a pal bought a pinball machine to pun in a barbershop. With the money they earned, they bought more machines until they had eight in different shops. When the friends sold the venture, Warren Buffett used the proceeds to buy stocks and to start another small business. By age 26, he'd amassed $174,000 -- or $1.4 million in today's money. Even a small sum can turn into great wealth.

2. Be Willing To Be Different: Don't base your decisions upon what everyone is saying or doing. When Warren Buffett began managing money in 1956 with $100,000 cobbled together from a handful of investors, he was dubbed an oddball. He worked in Omaha, not Wall Street, and he refused to tell his parents where he was putting their money. People predicted that he'd fail, but when he closed his partnership 14 years later, it was worth more than $100 million. Instead of following the crowd, he looked for undervalued investments and ended up vastly beating the market average every single year. To Warren Buffett, the average is just that -- what everybody else is doing. to be above average, you need to measure yourself by what he calls the Inner Scorecard, judging yourself by your own standards and not the world's.

3. Never Suck Your Thumb: Gather in advance any information you need to make a decision, and ask a friend or relative to make sure that you stick to a deadline. Warren Buffett prides himself on swiftly making up his mind and acting on it. He calls any unnecessary sitting and thinking "thumb sucking." When people offer him a business or an investment, he says, "I won't talk unless they bring me a price." He gives them an answer on the spot.

4. Spell Out The Deal Before You Start: Your bargaining leverage is always greatest before you begin a job -- that's when you have something to offer that the other party wants. Warren Buffett learned this lesson the hard way as a kid, when his grandfather Ernest hired him and a friend to dig out the family grocery store after a blizzard. The boys spent five hours shoveling until they could barely straighten their frozen hands. Afterward, his grandfather gave the pair less than 90 cents to split. Warren Buffett was horrified that he performed such backbreaking work only to earn pennies an hour. Always nail down the specifics of a deal in advance -- even with your friends and relatives.

5. Watch Small Expenses: Warren Buffett invests in businesses run by managers who obsess over the tiniest costs. He one acquired a company whose owner counted the sheets in rolls of 500-sheet toilet paper to see if he was being cheated (he was). He also admired a friend who painted only on the side of his office building that faced the road. Exercising vigilance over every expense can make your profits -- and your paycheck -- go much further.

6. Limit What You Borrow: Living on credit cards and loans won't make you rich. Warren Buffett has never borrowed a significant amount -- not to invest, not for a mortgage. He has gotten many heart-rendering letters from people who thought their borrowing was manageable but became overwhelmed by debt. His advice: Negotiate with creditors to pay what you can. Then, when you're debt-free, work on saving some money that you can use to invest.

7. Be Persistent: With tenacity and ingenuity, you can win against a more established competitor. Warren Buffett acquired the Nebraska Furniture Mart in 1983 because he liked the way its founder, Rose Blumkin, did business. A Russian immigrant, she built the mart from a pawnshop into the largest furniture store in North America. Her strategy was to undersell the big shots, and she was a merciless negotiator. To Warren Buffett, Rose embodied the unwavering courage that makes a winner out of an underdog.

8. Know When To Quit: Once, when Warren Buffett was a teen, he went to the racetrack. He bet on a race and lost. To recoup his funds, he bet on another race. He lost again, leaving him with close to nothing. He felt sick -- he had squandered nearly a week's earnings. Warren Buffett never repeated that mistake. Know when to walk away from a loss, and don't let anxiety fool you into trying again.

9. Assess The Risk: In 1995, the employer of Warren Buffett's son, Howie, was accused by the FBI of price-fixing. Warren Buffett advised Howie to imagine the worst-and-bast-case scenarios if he stayed with the company. His son quickly realized that the risks of staying far outweighed any potential gains, and he quit the next day. Asking yourself "and then what?" can help you see all of the possible consequences when you're struggling to make a decision -- and can guide you to the smartest choice.

10. Know What Success Really Means: Despite his wealth, Warren Buffett does not measure success by dollars. In 2006, he pledged to give away almost his entire fortune to charities, primarily the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. He's adamant about not funding monuments to himself -- no Warren Buffett buildings or halls. "I know people who have a lot of money," he says, "and they get testimonial dinners and hospital wings named after them. But the truth is that nobody in the world loves them. When you get to my age, you'll measure your success in life by how many of the people you want to have love you actually do love you. That's the ultimate test of how you've lived your life."

UPA will cost India economic superstardom

2009-03-25T14:52:00.001+05:30

The current global crisis is potentially an inflection point that marks the transition from an Anglo-American dominance to an Asian dominance in world economic affairs.

Certainly, there is a startling turnaround in the fact that China holds $2 trillion in US Treasury securities and therefore lectures the Americans about running their economy -- it feels like only yesterday when the shoe was on the other foot.

Another indicator is China's aggressive fire-sale purchases of commodities, including oil, copper, iron ore, et cetera from all over the world. 'Have money, will buy' is China's mantra.

But where is India in this 'Asian century'? Alas, India has once again fumbled a golden opportunity to rise to economic superstardom.

Given the profligate spending of the United Progressive Alliance and its self-proclaimed galaxy of economic geniuses, India now sports perhaps the highest deficit of any country: about 13 per cent, a far cry from the 5 per cent that the UPA has been promising us all along.

Yet again, the Congress has successfully brought India back to the verge of the 'Nehruvian rate of growth' of 2-3 per cent, which is an economic crime against humanity, imposing abject poverty on 250 million people.

After sixty years of Congress misrule, India has most of the world's poor people, and some of the worst health and nutrition indicators, even worse than much poorer sub-Saharan Africa. This is truly a crime and a national shame.

It is evident that India's wonderful 'hybrid economy' gives the country the very worst of, both, capitalism and communism. For, when the world was going through a capitalistic feeding frenzy, India, not being sufficiently open to trade and capital flows, did not benefit. In contrast, China, taking full advantage of its World Trade Organisation accession, amassed a singular fortune, and uplifted large numbers of its poor.

So India didn't grab that opportunity. One would think, then, that the obverse would be positive -- that is, when the excess leverage hit the fan, isolated India would not be affected very much. To some extent this is true: since India is a tiny trading power (accounting for perhaps 1 per cent of world trade in goods), the precipitous decline in demand from the West has not affected India anywhere near as much as it has hit China.

That is India, a slow and steady tortoise to China's flashy hare. In fact, this is why commentators are crowing about the alleged virtues of the dirigiste Indian State and its (usually deadening) hand on the levers of the economy.

In comparison to the formerly-lionized-and-now-reviled Alan Greenspan's laissez-faire Federal Reserve in the United States, so the theory goes, the virtuous Reserve Bank of India has been able to protect India from Anglo-American buccaneer investment bankers.

If only that were more than a half-truth!

The reality is closer to the way Pay Commission reports are implemented in India -- only one half of the recommendations is implemented. Pay Commissions routinely suggest a) reducing headcount, b) increasing working hours, c) tying salary increments to productivity, and d) increasing base salaries substantially. Of course 'a', 'b', and 'c' are ignored, and only vote-winning 'd' is implemented at large cost to the taxpayer.

Similarly, it is true that Anglo-Americans were unable to dump toxic mortgages on the Indian banking system. Unfortunately, India's politicians, including an alleged 'Dream Team' of economics mavens, have done the dastardly deed entirely on their own through almost Rs 200,000 crore (Rs 2,000 billion) of deficit spending, which will result in crushing inflation with a vengeance in the near future.

This in the name of programmes for the 'common man': such as the NREGS (National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme), the waiver of farm loans, and the windfall for bureaucrats.

Rs 70,000 crore (Rs 700 billion) for the NREGS, which, if we had truth-in-advertising, should be renamed 'National Employment Guarantee Scheme for Party Cadres', because 95 per cent of the funds ended up in their pockets (I quote Rajiv Gandhi who said 20 years ago that 90 per cent of the funds were pilfered en route, and surely they are more innovative now).

Rs 70,000 crore for the waiver of farm loans, most of which went to rich landlords already flush with untaxed agricultural income that has led to a boom in consumption in villages. Rs 30,000 crore (Rs 300 billion) spent on the corrupt, do-nothing bureaucracy. All this is money that the Congress printed out of thin air.

Not to speak of the billions-worth of counterfeit currency introduced by the friendly neighbourhood printing presses in Karachi.

One ocean-going container full of Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 notes from Pakistan -- by all accounts very good copies -- was seized at the Cochin port, which means hundreds of other containers could have gotten through.

Thus, even though there is a deflationary trend -- especially in real estate after the bubble burst, and it too had been propped up the same unaccounted-for money in the politician-civil servant-criminal nexus -- the long-term prospects are of raging inflation, as this Rs 200,000-plus crore chases limited goods.

Interestingly, the US is heading down the same path by announcing that it will inject $1 trillion in the system via Fed purchases of long-term Treasury securities. In other words, they too printed money. The reaction was swift -- the dollar tumbled, naturally.

Lost in all the hoopla about India's inflation coming down to 0.44 per cent recently is the fact that 12 per cent inflation for months has imposed a high-water-mark pricing on practically every manufactured good. Prices have gone up by 50 per cent in many cases; they have stubbornly remained there, and the chances of them coming down are nil.

In India, peculiarly, prices go up, but they never come down. This must be a 'feature' of the chimerical 'hybrid economy'. The only things that have come down are agricultural commodities like grain, and post-bubble real-estate.

Thus, once again, India has managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. China will go on to make it the 'Chinese century', and India will always have unrealized potential.

India's curse, (noted economist) Jagdish Bhagwati once observed, is its clever economists. This has been proven with a vengeance in the last five years.

2 Major-Generals face corruption charges

2009-02-28T11:00:00.000+05:30

NEW DELHI: In yet indicator of the declining standards of probity and discipline in the armed forces, two Major-Generals from the Army Ordnance Corps (AOC) are now in the dock for their alleged acts of commission and omission.

Both the Maj-Gens are facing courts of inquiry (CoI), which will establish whether there is enough prima facie evidence to try them through court martial, in separate cases.

The first, Maj-Gen Anand Swaroop, officiating commandant of College of Materials Management (Jabalpur), is facing charges of irregularities in purchase of items for a unit headed for a UN peace-keeping mission.

The second, Maj-Gen S P Sinha, ordnance chief at the Western Army Command at Chandimandir, in turn, is accused of irregularities in purchase of general stores for ordnance depot at Choeki. Both officers, on their part, have refuted the charges against them.

This comes after the case of yet another senior AOC officer, Maj-Gen A K Kapur, who is facing a CBI probe after raids led to the discovery of property worth around Rs 5.3 crore in his or his family's name in late-2007. The CBI, however, is yet to file a chargesheet in the case.

With the three seniormost AOC officers facing corruption charges, even if they have not been proved so far, the post of director-general of ordnance services at the Army HQ continues to remain vacant.

Both AOC and Army Service Corps (ASC) have been embroiled in such controversies in recent years, with senior officers jostling for top posts, often levelling accusations against each other.

The ASC, for instance, witnessed a bout of controversy some time ago with two Lt-Gens, S K Sahni and S K Dahiya, also having to face legal proceedings. The names of Sahni, Dahiya, four Maj-Gens, nine Brigadiers, a Navy Commodore, two Commanders, a Lt-Commander, an IAF Group Captain and a Coast Guard DIG had figured in a list of 21 senior officers facing corruption charges tabled by defence minister A K Antony in Parliament.

The corruption charges ranged from selling military liquor in civilian markets to financial bungling in purchase of cereals, petrol and the like in the armed forces.

A Maj-Gen had faced the music for even sexual harassment last year. The court martial against Maj-Gen A K Lal, who was removed as commander of the strategically-located 3 Infantry Division at Leh in September 2007 after a woman officer accused him of "misconduct'' and "misbehavior'', held that he should be dismissed from service.

Many of these officers, including Maj-Gen Lal, however, have appealed in high courts against the court martial verdicts against them.

India a sponge protecting US: Ashley Tellis tells US Senate

2009-02-02T07:22:00.000+05:30

On a hearing held on January 28, 2009 by the US Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs summarizes the testimony of Ashley Tellis, strategic affairs expert and an influential policy adviser, as follows:

QUOTE:
India has become the "sponge" that was protecting the United States and the West from the terror campaign of Lashkar-e-Tayiba and is absorbing most of the blows unleashed by terrorist groups in Pakistan.

LeT, which has been blamed for the Mumbai attacks, remains a terrorist organisation of genuinely global reach and represents a threat to regional and global security, second only to Osama bin Laden's al Qaeda.

Tellis, a Senior Associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, made these remarks while testifying before the Senate committee on homeland security and governmental affairs on Wednesday on the November 26 terrorist attacks in Mumbai and their consequences for the US.

"India has unfortunately become the sponge that protects us all. India's very proximity to Pakistan, which has developed into the epicenter of global terrorism during the last 30 years, has resulted in New Delhi absorbing most of the blows unleashed by those terrorist groups that treat it as a common enemy along with Israel, the United States, and the West more generally," he said.

Tellis said the Barack Obama administration should keep Pakistan's feet to the fire and ensure that Islamabad makes good on its promises to take on terrorist groups.

Washington should also demand more of Islamabad precisely because the LeT threatens to become a significant global terrorist threat, he said, adding, the US should insist that Islamabad roll up and eliminate the entire LeT infrastructure of terrorism that currently exists inside of Pakistan.

Tellis also termed India's response to the Mumbai attack as inadequate and suggested that New Delhi should set up a body on the lines of America's national counter-terrorism centre and take US help.

Tellis said since the launch of the global war on terror post 9/11, Inter-Services Intelligence's assistance to LeT has become more recessed but it has by no means ended, even though the organisation was formally banned by then Pakistans president Pervez Musharraf on January 12, 2002.

Throwing light on LeT's links with Pakistan's Inter Services Intelligence, Tellis said the terror group has received strong financial, material, and operational support from Pakistan's powerful spy agency -- including from its field stations in Nepal, Sri Lanka, and Bangladesh -- because of the growing conviction within the Pakistan military that the war against India could never be won if the hostilities were to be confined only to Jammu and Kashmir issue .

While India has occupied the lion's share of LeT attention in recent years, he said the organisation has not by any means restricted itself to keeping only India in its sights.

LeT was from the very beginning a preferred ward of the ISI, enjoying all the protection offered by the Pakistani state, he added. Even when Pakistan, under considerable US pressure, formally banned LeT as a terrorist organization in 2002, the LeT leadership remained impregnable and impervious to all international political pressure.

Tellis said it would be a gross error to treat the terrorism facing India, including the terrible recent atrocities as simply a problem for New Delhi alone.

In a very real sense, the outrage in Mumbai was fundamentally a species of global terrorism not merely because the assailants happened to believe in an obscurantist brand of Islam but, more importantly, because killing Indians turned out to be simply interchangeable with killing citizens of some 15 different nationalities for no apparent reason whatsoever.
UNQUOTE.

To watch and listen to the hearings. please click: http://hsgac.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?Fuseaction=Hearings.Detail&HearingID=4bad8b13-1ed8-4ea4-8ed7-0c020c6205f4

(It takes some time for the video to start).

For the text of Ashley Tellis's prepared testimony. please click: http://hsgac.senate.gov/public/_files/012809Tellis.pdf

Poonch pooh pooh

2009-01-13T16:05:00.001+05:30

This operation is symbolic of an unlearning nature of the Indian army. Unfortunately, nothing will change even now.

The operations against terrorists in the Mendhar forest against militants got over with an egg on the face of the Indian Army. One JCO and one soldier was killed with the weapon of the JCO sieged by the militants. Neither a single militant was captured nor was a dead body found in the area.

Best of the armies encounter failures but the really great ones draw the right lessons from those experiences. An experience of over four decades in counterinsurgency in the North East, nearly two decades fighting Islamist insurgents in Kashmir and more specifically, a similar experience with Mast Gul and gang at Charar-e-Sharif 13 years back should have prepared the army better to handle such situations.

The reactions to this incident will be the most obvious. The army will try its level best to find some scapegoats — sack the Brigade Commander, crucify the local battalion commander and full stop. Things will get back to the usual after that pretty soon. The prevalent culture in the services will not allow any in-depth study of the incident, quick dissemination of the lessons to other units in COIN operations, introduction of new tactics and induction of latest equipment or weaponry to prevent such incidents in the future. The unintended message to junior and middle ranking officers from all this is to follow the proverbial eleventh commandment — Thou shall not get caught.

If the internal mechanisms in the army are failing, then the external entities are doing no better. The highly voluble veterans community which was so strident on the pay commission issue will not even point out this weakness of the Indian army. The ignoramuses in the mainstream media, will continue to treat army like a holy cow and brush this incident under the carpet.

This downhill slide of a professional force, which is hell-bent on drawing its strength solely from the past and is blithely unconcerned about its future, will continue till a military tragedy of calamitous proportions strikes the nation. Then there will be many queuing up to lambast the defence services. By then it will be too late for constructive criticism, one that seeks constant improvement and betterment of the Indian Army.

SUPPRESSING INDIAN HISTORY

2008-12-29T18:13:00.000+05:30

The anniversary of Ayodhya has come and passed. Once more, many of India's intelligentsia felt that the destruction of the mosque has signalled the end of a certain tolerant India, for which secularism was the unifying factor and has planted a dangerous seed of Hindu "nationalism" in India's psyche. Yet, one should remember that the Hindu 'fundamentalists' did not kill a single soul in Ayodhya, whereas the bombs planted a while later in revenge by Indian Muslims with the help of Pakistan, killed more than 350 innocent human beings. In fact, during its long history, Hinduism has been one of the most peaceful creeds in the world, accepting the reality of different beliefs, never trying to convert -even in a non-violent manner, like the Buddhists did in Asia - and submitting itself rather meekly, except for a Shivaji, a Guru Gobind or a Rani of Jhansi, to numerous invasions. The same thing cannot be said about Islam, whatever N. Ram says in Frontline. Many historians, amongst them Will Durant, Louis Frederick, or Alain Danielou, have remarked that the Muslim invaders were so certain that they were doing their holy duty by razing temples and killing Hindus, that they had recorded down carefully and proudly their deeds in their own archives.

Mahmud of Ghazni, for instance, who patronised art and literature, would recite a verse of the Koran every night after having razed temples and killed his quota of unbelievers. Firuz Shah Tughlak, personally confirms that the destruction of Pagan temples was done out of piety and writes: "on the day of a Hindu festival, I went there myself, ordered the executions of all the leaders and practionners of his abomination; I destroyed their idols temples and built mosques in their places". Aurangzeb did not just build an isolated mosque on a razed temple, as Romila Thapar would like us to believe, he ordered all temples destroyed, among them the Kashi Vishvanath, one of the most sacred places of Hinduism and had mosques built on a number of cleared temples sites. All other Hindu sacred places within his reach equally suffered destruction, with mosques built on them. A few examples: Krishna's birth temple in Mathura, the rebuilt Somnath temple on the coast of Gujurat, the Vishnu temple replaced with the Alamgir mosque now overlooking Benares and the Treta-ka-Thakur temple in Ayodhya. The number of temples destroyed by Aurangzeb is counted in 4, if not 5 figures. This is a small excerpt of his own official court chronicles: "Aurangzeb ordered all provincial governors to destroy all schools and temples of the Pagans and to make a complete end to all pagan teachings and practices". Or:: "Hasan Ali Khan came and said that 172 temples in the area had been destroyed... His majesty went to Chittor and 63 temples were destroyed. Abu Tarab, appointed to destroy the idol-temples of Amber, reported that 66 temples had been razed to the ground".. Aurangzeb did not stop at destroying temples, their users were also wiped-out; even his own brother, Dara Shikoh, was executed for taking an interest in Hindu religion and the Sikh Guru Tegh Bahadur was beheaded because he objected to Aurangzeb's forced conversions. As we can see Romila Thapar and Percival Spear's statement of a benevolent Aurangzeb is a flagrant attempt at negationism (the negation of historical crimes). Even the respectable Encyclopedia Brittannica in its entry on India, does not mention in its chapter on the Sultanate period any persecutions of Hindus by Muslims, except "that Firuz Shah Tughlaq made largely unsuccessful attempts at converting his Hindu subjects and sometime persecuted them".

Indian school books seem to have taken their cue from the Encyclopedia Brittannica , as there is hardly any mention of this dark aspect of India's past. But why does India negate its history? We know that Nehru and Gandhi wanted to keep Pakistan within India and wished to avoid the splintering away of Muslim groups. But was it a good enough reason to suppress information about Muslim atrocities during ten centuries of bloody invasions and the massive destruction of Hindu temples ? On the contrary this has only created more terrorism. Denying and suppressing the history cannot keep the harmony. In its place, truth and reconciliation are necessary. Hiding the truth denies sympathy to the victim, civilization and culture. A nation unless, it is ready to face its own history - the Good and the Bad, the Courageous and the Cowardly - can never bloom into its full plenitude. Hidden aspects of its own history sooner or later will surface and bring with them the guilt, anger, regret, which are the necessary ingredients to wipe-off that particular black karma. In Germany, for instance, Germans have been reminded again and again about the atrocities committed by the Nazis during World War II, and that has brought a sense of guilt, which has acted as a deterrent to future atrocities

The Jews have constantly tried, since the Nazi genocide, to keep alive the remembrance of their six million martyrs. This has got nothing to do with vengeance. Do the Jews of today want to retaliate upon contemporary Germany? No. It is only a matter of making sure that history does not repeat its mistakes, as alas it is doing today in India : witness the persecution of Hindus in Kashmir, whose 250.000 Pandits have fled their 5000 year old homeland, or the oppression of Hindus in Bangladesh and Pakistan. To remember, is to be able to look at today with the wisdom of yesterday. No collective memory should be erased for appeasing a particular community. Hiding the facts and justifying past Muslim crimes has led to terrorism in the Indian sub-continent. Muslims were never held accountable. One of the first steps to curb violence is to make one aware of past mistakes. Guilt in the culprit and forgiveness in the victim can put an end to self-righteousness and the kind of terrorism we see today in Kashmir, in spite of India's peace overtures.

FRANCOIS GAUTIER

How Wall Street operates

2008-11-01T11:16:00.000+05:30

Once upon a time in a village in India, a man told the villagers that he would buy monkeys for Rs. 200 each.

The villagers seeing there were many monkeys around, went out to the forest and started catching them.

The man bought thousands at Rs. 200, but, as the supply started to diminish, the villagers stopped catching monkeys. The man further announced that he would now buy at Rs. 250. The villagers renewed their efforts and caught more monkeys. Soon the supply diminished even further and people started going back to their farms. The offer rate increased to Rs. 300 and the supply of monkeys became so little that it was an effort to even see a monkey, let alone catch it!

The man now announced that he would buy monkeys at Rs 500 each! However, since he had to go to the city on some business, his assistant would now act as buyer, on his behalf.

In the absence of the man, the assistant told the villagers: “Look at all these monkeys in the big cage that my boss has collected. I will sell them to you at Rs. 400 and when he returns from the city, you can sell them back to him for Rs 500.”

The villagers squeezed together their savings and bought all the monkeys.

Then they never saw the man or his assistant again, only monkeys everywhere!

Welcome to WALL STREET

Why industrialists prefer Modi to Buddha

2008-10-13T09:16:00.000+05:30

Industrialists always like to deal with governments that are stable, can take quick decisions and are capable of handling political opposition to any idea or project they support.

Till the Left Front took charge of West Bengal in 1977, industrialists were scared of taking up new projects in that state. Even if the government gave the go-ahead, the opposition political parties, then led by the Left, would manage to obstruct the smooth implementation of projects. Even running projects would be a headache.

All this began to change after the Left Front came to power and Jyoti Basu was sworn in as the chief minister of West Bengal. Industrialists realised that the Left Front at the helm was the best insurance they could hope for against industrial unrest affecting their factories and plants in West Bengal.

There were three distinct advantages. One, the Left Front government in the state was stable, with a huge majority the Left parties enjoyed in the Legislative Assembly. Two, Jyoti Basu was the undisputed leader of the government and he was empowered to take the final decision once he made up his mind. And three, the state was left with hardly any opposition political party of any significance.

So, all that an industrialist in West Bengal had to do was to have a good working equation with the Left Front chairman (who headed the Left coalition, of which the CPI-M was obviously the dominant partner) and Jyoti Basu (who headed the state government). Once the industrialists took care of these two offices, they would not face any problem - either from the government or from the employees' unions, which were invariably controlled by the ruling Left parties.

If industries still did not make a beeline for investments in West Bengal, it was primarily because the Jyoti Basu government did not pursue rapid industrialisation with private capital as one of its goals and, of course, it had to contend with an investor-unfriendly reputation that refused to die easily.

In any case, the first ten years of the Left Front rule saw Jyoti Basu spending most of his energies on land reforms and a sustained battle with the Centre to get more public sector investments in the state and a larger share in central taxes. He achieved significant success in his efforts at land reform and managed to convert centre-state fiscal relations into a national issue, but failed miserably in attracting central investments to the state.

A few years after the launch of the economic reforms by Manmohan Singh in 1991, Jyoti Basu also changed his industrial policy and began attracting private investment for industrial projects in the state.

His successor, Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee, built on this industrial policy. It appeared that Mr Bhattacharjee was making some headway in his plan for industrialisation in West Bengal with the help of private capital. If Ratan Tata decided to invest in Singur to produce the world-famous Nano from West Bengal, it was largely because he and his advisors had reckoned that Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee ruled the state like Jyoti Basu.

But what became clear to the Tatas in the last few months was that things had changed in Bengal and these were changes that even Mr Bhattacharjee and his administration failed to recognise and take appropriate remedial measures.

A powerful opposition political party by the name of Trinamool Congress had grown its roots in West Bengal and had won a majority of the seats in the Panchayat elections in Singur.

Worse, Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee failed to act as a chief minister who was in complete command of the situation. His government was stable. Yet he failed to act decisively and quickly to resolve the crisis and face the challenge posed by the chief opposition party in the state. After the Trinamool Congress protests began and disrupted work at Singur, Ratan Tata waited for more than a month before taking the final decision to pull out from West Bengal.

If Tata Motors [Get Quote] has now gone to Gujarat to relocate the Nano project there, it is largely because its chief minister, Narendra Modi, offers those very qualities which industrialists love in a state government. Mr Modi's government is stable, he is known for taking quick decisions and has nothing to fear from any opposition political party in the state. There is no Mamata Banerjee in Gujarat.

Nothing else really matters for industrialists when they have to decide on the location of their projects. The riots in Ahmedabad, Surat and other cities in Gujarat after the Godhra train fire may have been condemned by industry leaders. Minority communities may still not feel safe in Gujarat today. For industrialists, however, Narendra Modi meets all the criteria for choosing his state as their next investment destination.

That is where Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee has lost out to Narendra Modi. Panicked by riots in Gujarat after the Godhra riots, Kutubuddin Ansari, a resident of Ahmadabad, had fled his state and secured a safe refuge in Kolkata.

Narendra Modi lost Kutubuddin Ansari. But that did not come in the way of his convincing the Tatas to set up their prestigious Nano factory.

10 Indian peacekeepers in Congo sex scandal

2008-10-13T09:04:00.000+05:30

Fresh investigations into a sex-for-cash scandal involving Indian UN peacekeepers deployed in the Democratic Republic of Congo have revealed that at least 10 soldiers may have had sex with prostitutes. The United Nations code of conduct in Congo prohibits peacekeepers from soliciting prostitutes.

Lifting the lid on their actions, the North Kivu Indian brigade has gathered sufficient evidence to prove the peacekeepers used children to hire Congolese girls for sex in Masisi, an exhausting five-hour drive from Goma.

The UN Organisation Mission in Democratic Republic of Congo (known by its French acronym MONUC) is served by 4,554 troops.

Hindustan Times has learnt that five children have identified the peacekeepers from 1 Jammu and Kashmir Rifles after they were shown photographs of around 100 peacekeepers based in Masisi when allegations of sexual misconduct were made last year.

North Kivu brigade commander Bipin Rawat told HT, “Initial findings confirm their involvement. We have sent our report to the army headquarters in New Delhi and recommended a thorough probe in view of new evidence.”

The peacekeepers involved returned home in April as part of half-yearly troop rotation. Charges against them would be corroborated in India before prosecutions, Rawat said.

The 18,931-strong MONUC, the largest and costliest UN deployment across the globe, is the only mission where troops can be prosecuted for sex with prostitutes. The act falls within the definition of sexual exploitation and abuse.

The investigation conducted by the North Kivu brigade, on the orders of army vice-chief Lieutenant General M.L. Naidu who was here this May, challenges the findings of a previous inquiry by the United Nations' Office of Internal Oversight Services in Congo.

To the consternation of the Indian Army, the powerful UN investigating agency had charged almost 60 soldiers with soliciting sex from prostitutes and some 40 troops with employing child labour earlier this year. Considering the findings of the army inquiry, the rot may not run as deep as the UN agency had made it out. But pre-emptive measures have been put in place to discipline troops.

Brigadier Rawat has formed flying squads to snoop on his men garrisoned in and around North Kivu's capital Goma. Raids are regularly conducted at no-go places such as nightclubs, bars and red light areas. The squads include personnel drawn from the Bangladesh military police.

Troops finishing their tenure have been placed under surveillance as sexual abuse and exploitation usually takes place during the last two months, said an officer. There is evidence to prove that posts held by soldiers provide safe haven for such activities.

http://www.hindustantimes.com/StoryPage/Print.aspx?Id=dba2bd1a-440a-4bc9-a34c-5325b8368282
© Copyright 2007 Hindustan Times

Major general guilty of sexual misconduct

2008-09-15T09:47:00.001+05:30

A military court has found a major general guilty of sexual misconduct and awarded him a sentence of dismissal from service.

Major General AK Lal, a former commander of the Leh-based 3 Infantry Division, faced a general court martial (GCM) in Bathinda after a previous inquiry found evidence against him. Captain Neha Rawat of the Corps of Signals had filed a complaint against Lal last September, alleging that he had misbehaved with her while conducting yoga classes at his residence. Lal is the senior-most officer in the army’s history to be awarded such a sentence on charges sexual misconduct.

The GCM, presided over by 10 Corps commander Lieutenant General R.S. Sujlana, delivered the verdict on Saturday. The sentence is subject to confirmation under the provisions of the Army Act. If a higher authority confirms the verdict, Lal won’t be eligible for retirement benefits. Even after the sentence is confirmed, he has the option of challenging it in a high court or the newly constituted Armed Forces Tribunal.

Maj Gen AK Lal faced a general court martial in Bathinda after a previous inquiry found evidence against him.

Automobiles Can Banish Unemployment and Poverty

2008-09-10T13:38:00.003+05:30

The Sindur controversy highlights a clash of perceptions. Firstly it tries to resist the increasing trend of marginal agriculturalists leaving rural areas for better urban opportunities. Secondly it reveals the old socialist perception that cars are toys of the elite and do not deserve encouragement.

The Nano is however belatedly making India's economists, planners and politicians realize that the automotive Industry is a huge driver of employment and growth. According to Japan Automobile Manufacturer's Association, automobiles contribute to 21% of Japan’s GDP and are the main engine of its economic growth employing 7.3 million people. According to Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers, the industry already contributes to nearly 12% of India's GDP.

The impact on employment can be seen from the example of Maruti that now directly employs just 5,500 people and plans to make 700,000 cars this year. But the 6,000 trucks needed to deliver them create employment for about 24,000 people. Their 1,500 dealers employ over 75,000 people. Maruti however makes only 20% of the car. They make no steel, castings, forgings, tyres, batteries, electricals, brakes, glass and components. The employment by the vendors, just dedicated to Maruti cars, must exceed 200,000. India’s trucks employ 15 million people as compared to just 2 million by the railways.

Put together, all the makers of Indian cars, trucks, tractors, and 2-wheelers may generate some 3,000,000 salaried jobs. But these salaries create another huge multiplier effect of tertiary employment for the millions who supply these salaried employees with food, clothing, shelter, education, medical facilities, entertainment, etc.

Anyone who has seen the sudden explosion of new townships like Surajpur, near the Honda, Daewoo, Yamaha and Honda plants, Sriperumbudur, near Hyundai's plant or Malaimaraipur near Ford's plant, Bidadi near the Toyota plant can see the quick impact automobiles have on employment and economic growth. Rather few jobs initially went to these towns because modern auto plants wanted educated engineers not skilled workers. But local teashops became hotels and hotels expanded into housing estates. Schools, cinemas, video parlours, groceries, fast food outlets and real estate developers multiplied. Doctors, architects, interior decorators and caterers streamed in. Unlettered locals prospered as masons, carpenters, mechanics and contractors. Prosperity quickly created even more prosperity.

And the impact spreads wider. The people who own and run India's 50 million two-wheelers, 12 million cars and some 8 million trucks and buses need many millions of people to service them in every small town. And these millions of local mechanics having learned technical skills and to work with their hands will never be unemployed. Academic education does not assure jobs but work with one's hands does.

India does not have too many cars. According to the World Bank India today has 12 cars per 1000 people as compared to 19 in Pakistan, 64 in Malaysia, 67 in Turkey, 426 in UK, 543 in Japan and 765 in USA,. So car density is a virtual index of economic prosperity. But more vehicles will need many more highways and much wider city roads and more parking spaces including parking in the basements of all new commercial and residential buildings. With rapid transport new satellite towns can be built near existing ones to decongest them. More highway police will be needed to manage the growing numbers. All these are big job generators.

India is not just a poor country but also a country with a horribly hot and dusty climate where the people should be allowed the comfort and efficiencies of motorized transport instead of the agony of bicycles and bullock carts. Few people realize just how heavily India's autos are taxed. The combined impact of 40% Modvat on components, 16 -24% excise duties, 12% local sales taxes plus octroi in some cities has a cascade effect to almost double the manufacturing costs of indigenous vehicles. In most other countries, there is just one tax like 15% VAT in EU and USA, 8% in Korea and 8 - 16% in Japan (according to size). With similar taxes, A Maruti 800 would probably cost about Rs. 1.20 Lakhs, a Honda City about 4 Lakhs to say nothing about two wheelers and transport vehicles. If this happened, India's automobiles would boom with a huge impact on employment and economic growth.

India’s planners had previously been so obsessed by the vision of automobiles being elitist that they crippled one the greatest generators of employment and economic growth. China who had earlier been a great crusader for socialism learned two decades ago that many objects of elitist consumption were good for the people. While India restricted production and levied huge taxes on bikes, cars, telephones, TV’s, soft drinks, white goods and mobile phones, China let them lead the way to a huge economic revolution. China did not feel that its independence or security was threatened by entry of any multinational. They considered the idea of a foreign company being capable of challenging the great Chinese dragon or its culture as laughable.

But India’s politicians and their bureaucratic `running dogs’, as the Chinese would have put it, had such a love affair with poverty that poverty is what they perpetuated. Taxes instead of being a necessary resource for economic development were greedily sought for creating a bloated bureaucracy and lining political pockets.

Automobiles drove America to prosperity and led the recovery of Germany, Japan and Korea after their wars. Hopefully our planners will belatedly see the light and lead India to a new prosperity. Automobiles transport 80% of all goods and 85% of passengers adding up to some 200 million people who are using the cars, 2-wheelers, buses and trucks every day. Perhaps the next election slogan should be: Tax ghatao, gaari chalao, unatti badhao.

IS SHABANA AZMI A LIAR??

2008-09-01T08:56:00.000+05:30

"Four flats in Juhu, and a house in Khandala are what actor Shabana Azmi owns, if some of the prominent people from the film fraternity are to be believed.

Irked by the alleged irresponsible statement by Azmi, who claimed that she was denied a house in Mumbai because she is a muslim, people from the film industry called a press meet at Club Millennium in Juhu on Wednesday.

"It's the worst communal statement made by someone who has multiple houses. There are many societies who do not allow Hindus, but we respect their culture and don't condemn them." said filmmaker Ashoke Pandit.

http://www.dnaindia.com/report.asp?newsid=1184725

Now, either she or he is telling the truth. And if it isn't her, then shouldn't the Income Tax Dept be interested?

Healthcare is a big opportunity in India

2008-08-22T10:32:00.001+05:30

While private players are keenly entering this "social" infrastructure sector, innovative measures are needed to improve financial performance.

The last decade has seen a significant increase in private sector participation in healthcare delivery. Existing players such as Apollo, Wockhardt, Manipal, Care Hospitals and Narayan Hrudalaya have expanded aggressively.

New players such as Fortis, Max, Sterling, Global Hospitals, AMRI, Ruby Hall and Reliance, ADAG have entered the sector with plans to establish national and regional presence. International players such as Elbit, Columbia Asia and Parkway have also entered India with plans of establishing a network of hospitals.

These corporate players together operate around 25,000 beds across the country. Healthcare providers have also attracted investments from private equity players such as IDFC, Apax Partners, Actis, Indivision, ICICI Ventures, and Trinity Capital.

My colleague Monika Sood is an acknowledged thought-leader and strategist in the healthcare space. Over a long fireside-chat, she explained to me the dynamics of the private healthcare market.

Healthcare delivery can be segmented into primary, secondary and tertiary care. Primary care constitutes treatment on an out-patient basis. Secondary care refers to hospitalisation for "non-critical" ailments. Tertiary care relates to treatment of critical ailments and requires high-tech and expensive facilities and equipment.

As of now the corporate sector is focused on tertiary care. The opportunity exists because of the lack of adequate facilities, high investment requirement (which becomes an entry barrier for smaller players), higher revenue realisation per patient, less competition from doctor-entrepreneur led facilities as well as an ability to differentiate product offerings.

Five key factors are currently driving private participation in "for profit" healthcare delivery.

Increasing population base - Population growth of 1.7 per cent per annum for the next five years will result in a need for approximately 30,000 new beds every year.

Increasing income - The number of households with income greater than Rs 2,00,000 per annum is likely to increase from 95 million (8 per cent of population) to 404 million (32 per cent of population) by 2015.

Rising insurance penetration - Private medical insurance penetration has increased from 0.4 per cent of population in 2001 to 1.5 per cent of population in 2006.

Increasing incidence of "lifestyle" diseases - Cardiac ailments, diabetes, and the like result in an increased requirement of tertiary care beds.

Increase in the number of senior citizens - Driven by higher life expectancy, from 59 to 63 in the last decade, senior citizens (around 4 per cent of population) constitute around 20 per cent of in-patients at hospitals.

The above drivers are likely to result in an annual increase of 10-12 per cent in the size of the healthcare delivery market over the next five years.

However the financial performance of players has not been very encouraging. Average operating margins have been less than 18 per cent (and declining), and Return On Capital Employed has been less than 15 per cent. This is a key area of concern.

This rather lacklustre financial performance has been due to:

High capital expenditure per bed: Capital expenditure of Rs 50-75 lakh (Rs 5-7.5 million) per bed for tertiary care and Rs. 25-30 lakh (Rs 2.5-3 million) for secondary care, is essentially driven by high cost of land as well as high cost of medical equipment.

Given the importance of location while establishing a new facility, providers are forced to pay a high cost for acquiring land especially in the metros and Tier I cities.

Medical equipment typically comprises 30-40 per cent of project cost. State-of-the art medical equipment is being deployed to attract "star" physicians as well as being used as a marketing tool. Given the large share of imported equipment, providers have to pay dollar prices on par with international players thus increasing capital costs.

Increasing customer expectations have also resulted in an increased spend on hospital interiors and services.

Ongoing capital expenditure: Significant investment is required on an ongoing basis given the high obsolescence of medical equipment.

Limitations on revenue realisation per bed-night: Revenue realisation per bed-night has been limited by increasing competition especially in metros and Tier I cities. For example, the average price increase in competitive markets over the last five years has been only around 5 per cent per annum.

The large share (greater than 40 per cent) of secondary care patients at most tertiary care hospitals also results in low realisation per bed-night. Thus, while the facility has been created for tertiary care (high capex), it is being sub-optimally utilised to offer secondary care (low realisation).

Increasing share of bulk buyers (insurance, corporates etc.) also limits the ability to increase realisation significantly. The limited size of the population that can afford high-end tertiary care also restricts revenue growth.

Increasing operating costs: While most players in competitive markets have not been able to increase prices significantly, their operating costs have gone up disproportionately. This increase has been driven essentially by increasing human resource costs due to a shortage of trained personnel and increasing competition for talent.

At a key tertiary care hospital in Delhi while the revenue has increased by 5 per cent per annum over the last five years, personnel costs have increased by 14 per cent per annum. High costs associated with attracting and retaining "star" physicians (since they continue to be key drivers of patient volumes) have resulted in high fixed operating costs, especially for new players.

High costs incurred on marketing the facility over and above developing a referral network have also increased operating costs for most players.

High gestation period: High fixed operating costs and slow build-up of occupancy results in operating losses in the first few years. Patients have shown a preference for established facilities and physicians and are reluctant to try new facilities especially for critical ailments, thus increasing the gestation period for a new facility.

High capital expenditure, constrained revenue realisation per bed-night and increasing operating costs have resulted in shrinking operating margins (average range 10-18 per cent) and low asset turnover ratios.

Clearly, innovative measures are the order of the day to improve financial performance. Such measures would include:

Better planning at the time of conceptualisation: Reducing capital expenditure through innovative hospital design, "optimal" selection of medical equipment, phased rollout, right choice of location, specialty-mix etc.
Leveraging scale to reduce procurement price - for capital equipment as well as consumables.
Having the "right" doctor engagement model and building an "institutional" brand.
Focus on untapped opportunities - geographic locations as well as undeserved segments.

The burgeoning Indian market, if handled smartly, offers a challenging opportunity for value creation.

Healthcare, then, would definitely turn out to be a healthy business!

The Indian armed forces also have a lot to answer for

2008-08-22T10:23:00.003+05:30

When the sixth pay commission recommendations came out earlier this year, the reaction in the rank and file of the Indian armed forces was strongly negative as it once again felt let down by the political-bureaucratic establishment. The veterans came out on the streets to protest and the Indian army chief was forced to take his case to the President, much to the annoyance of the government.

The issues related to the Military Service Pay, the exclusion of the rank pay from the pay scale of officers leading to a lowering of officers' status, introduction of running pay bands were, among others, issues that caused a lot of consternation within the services, especially as it reinforced a perception that it's all part of a well-established pattern of behavior on the part of their civilian masters.

Such turmoil within the ranks of any nation's armed services should be a cause for concern but in the case of India that aspires to join the ranks of world's major global powers this is a recipe for disaster.

The government has now decided to implement a modified version of the Pay Commission recommendations and the service chiefs seem to have given their blessings to the proposed changes. The navy chief has been quoted as saying that the concerns of the armed forces appear to have been suitably addressed. One hopes these views are shared by the rank and file of the nation's defence forces.

If the top leadership is indeed satisfied with the government's response, then the onus now is on them to give the Indian defence policy a new direction, a trajectory that does justice to India's rising stature in the global inter-state hierarchy. Blaming the government for all the ills afflicting the defence sector seems to be becoming the default position within the ranks of the military, and taking this too far can be really dangerous for the liberal democratic ethos of this nation.

India's armed forces need fundamental reforms, a restructuring that enables them to operate with utmost efficiency in a rapidly evolving domestic and global context. The armed forces can begin by putting their own house in order.

It is true that big macro issues remain beyond the influence of the armed forces as they have to work within the strategic framework set by the civilian leadership. The Indian economy will have to continue to grow at high rates of growth if Indian defence needs can be adequately catered to. High rates of economic growth over the last several years have given India the resources to undertake its military modernisation programme and redefine its defence priorities.

India, which currently has the world's fourth largest military and one of the biggest defence budgets, has been in the midst of a huge defence modernisation programme for nearly a decade that has seen billions of dollars spent on the latest high-tech military technology. This liberal spending on defence equipment has attracted the interest of Western industry and governments alike and is changing the scope of the global defence market.

A country like India does not have the luxury to make a choice between guns and butter and high economic growth is the only solution that will allow it to take care of its defence and developmental needs simultaneously. India's own version of 'revolution in military affairs' will force it to spend much more on sophisticated cutting-edge defence technology and on trained manpower. Without sustained rates of high economic growth, this will become very difficult to achieve as the defence forces will find it difficult to make demands on the government for greater resources.

The other issue is of appropriate institutional frameworks that enable a nation to effectively leverage its capabilities -- diplomatic, military and economic -- in the service of its strategic interests. India lacks such institutions in the realm of foreign and defence policies. While the prime minister laments the paucity of long-term strategic thinking in India, his government has done nothing substantive to stimulate such thinking.

The National Security Council still does not work as it ideally should. The headquarters of the three services needs to be effectively integrated with the ministry of defence and the post of the chief of defence staff is the need of the hour for single-point military advice to the government. The fact that successive Indian governments have failed to produce a National Security Strategy is both a consequence of the institutional decay in the country as well as a cause of the inability of the armed forces to plan their force structures and acquisitions adequately to meet their future challenges.

Yet, the Indian politico-bureaucratic establishment is not the only guilty party here as the Indian armed forces also have a lot to answer for. Their top leadership has shied away from making tough choices about reducing manpower strength; about adjusting the inter-service budgetary balance; and about restructuring the nation's professional military education system. No military anywhere in the world gets all the resources from its government that it deems adequate but an effective military organisation should be able to optimise the use of whatever is at its disposal.

Resources alone, however, will not make Indian armed forces the envy of its adversaries. It is the policy direction that is set by the military leadership and the quality of training imparted to its manpower that will make the difference. The debate on the wide-ranging changes that India's defence set-up needs should have been initiated long back by the armed forces themselves.

The questions that need to be debated and answered include: Do we have a 21st century military in terms of doctrine and force structure? Have the doctrines and force structures evolved in line with the equipments that the nation's resources are being spent on? Do India's command and control processes reflect the changing strategic and operational requirements? Does the Indian military have the capacity to initiate military actions on very short notice and actually conduct military operations that result in something other than a stalemate, something that India might have wanted to do during Operation Parakram in 2001-02 but could not? Have the Indian armed forces got the balance between capital and labour right?

Though high rates of economic growth have given and will, in the future, provide greater resources for defence, the changing socio-economic milieu will also make it increasingly difficult to attract young men and women to the services. As a result the armed forces will have to find a way to strike a balance between growing manpower shortage and the easing of budgetary constraints. The services have no option but to modernise their human resources policy -- recruitment, retention, promotions, exit et al which will make a huge difference to the satisfaction levels of the rank and file.

The armed forces need to do some serious introspection if these issues are to be sorted out before it's too late. It is disappointing to see the service headquarters continuing to resist greater integration and inter-services rivalry continuing to be as vicious as in the past. When the army came up with the doctrine of Cold Start, it found no support for it in the other services. The other services may have had genuine concerns about the doctrine but they have made no attempt to reconcile their differences, underlining Indian operational weaknesses.

The government, meanwhile, can always point to the malaise within the armed forces as an excuse for not undertaking any meaningful defence reforms of its own. India, for example, finds itself in a peculiar position of having a Strategic Forces Command but no CDS, partly because of the differences among the three services.

The debate has got stuck on the issue of the CDS whereas the nation needs to be thinking seriously about integrated theatre commands, allowing the three services to share their resources and enabling a reduction of manpower at various levels. Today's military challenges can not be tackled without a real integration up to the command level.

India desperately needs a defence policy that can do justice to its rising aspirations and its armed forces need to rise to this challenge. It is time for the Indian defence forces to start producing men and women of intellectual leadership and administrative acumen that this time in India's history demands.

The armed forces face a choice: They can keep blaming the political-bureaucratic establishment and do nothing or they can initiate a process of internal reforms forthwith. India's future, in many ways, will depend on the choice that they make.

by Dr Harsh V Pant teaches at King's College London

Army orders probe against Indian soldiers in Congo

2008-08-13T10:04:00.001+05:30

The Indian Army has ordered a probe into allegations of Indian peacekeepers in Congo indulging in sexual and child abuse weeks after the charges surfaced that had left defence authorities red faced.

The probe is being conducted by a senior Army officer posted in the central African state, top Army officials said on late Tuesday night.

The order for the probe was given by Army's Vice-Chief Lt Gen M L Naidu, who was on a four-day visit to Congo recently to meet the troops deployed for the UN peacekeeping mission there.

UN officials have said the alleged incidents took place in North Kivu province, where UN troops have been policing a shaky ceasefire between rival rebel and militia factions and government troops.

The allegations surfaced after the UN mission in Congo came under heavy scrutiny due to a report by Human Rights Watch earlier this year, which accused it of covering up allegations of Pakistani and Indian troops' involvement in alleged arms and gold smuggling in eastern Congo.

UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said, "an internal UN investigation has found evidence that some Indian peacekeepers may have engaged in sexual exploitation and abuse in Congo”.

In a statement issued by his spokeswoman's office, Ban said he was "deeply troubled" by the outcome of the UN investigation and said "disciplinary action to the maximum degree permitted by Indian law should be taken as soon as possible against those found to be involved."

The Indians were previously stationed in the Democratic Republic of the Congo as part of the United Nations' MONUC peacekeeping force, the statement said.

It added that the Indian government assured the United Nations it would investigate the charges and, if true, "strict and exemplary action" would be taken against anyone involved.

The statement contained no details about the suspected "sexual exploitation and abuse."

Aid workers in Congo, who asked not to be identified, said in May that the inquiry was focusing on Indian UN peacekeepers accused of paying for sex with underage girls in the country's violence-torn east.

Last month, the UN mission in Congo said it was investigating an Indian peacekeeping officer accused of showing support for Tutsi rebels in the east.

From The Economic Times, August 13, 2008

India’s Role in the Globalization of the IT Industry

2008-08-13T08:42:00.000+05:30

During economic boom or bust, whether for import, domestic, or export, India has helped to drive globalization of the IT services industry; it is likely to create the second largest IT services labour pool after the United States within the next seven to eight years, as per an article published by the global research and analytics firm, Evalueserve.

In the article, Evalueserve provided the following statistics about the India’s IT services industry (which includes exports, as well as domestic IT services, engineering services, research and development services, and those related to software products):

• The Indian IT industry employed 450,000 professionals and earned USD 8.7 billion in revenue (i.e., approximately 1.75% of India’s GDP) in 2001–02.

• It employed 1,316,000 professionals and registered revenue worth USD 30.1 billion 2007–08. Since India’s GDP was approximately USD 1,050 billion during 2007–2008, the IT industry constituted approximately 2.86% of India’s GDP.

• The industry is likely to employ 3,750,000 professionals and record USD193.1 billion in revenue by 2015–16. Since India’s GDP is growing annually at 8.5% in real terms and 14% in nominal terms, this GDP is likely to be USD 2,400 billion by 2015–2016, and hence the IT industry is likely to constitute 8.05% of India’s GDP.

Consequently, if the forecasts by Evalueserve are accurate, then by 2015–2016, the number of professionals working in the IT industry will grow tenfold (from 2001–2002) and the total revenue by 22 times (in nominal terms). In other words, the industry is likely to witness significant growth even as many worry about the tough economic times ahead.

Unlike the Indian IT industry, the IT and software industry in the United States started in late 1950s, gained prominence due to mainframe computers in late 1960s and early 1970s, grew further due to the advent of personal computers in 1980s and due to the Internet that allowed organizations and individuals to be connected to each other in 1990s. Considering that all of these innovations occurred primarily in the United States, its IT industry has dominated those in other countries and continues to be significantly ahead even today.

According to Evalueserve, during 2006–07, the Unites States IT industry generated approximately USD452 billion in total revenue (i.e., domestic, as well as exports), which is almost fifteen times more than theUSD30.1 billion generated by the Indian IT industry. In 2007, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics published its report, which stated that approximately 3.2 million IT professionals were employed in 2006 in different sub-sectors of the United States IT industry and forecasted that approximately 4.01 million professionals are likely to be employed in 2016.
Therefore, Evalueserve’s study concludes with the following:

• With respect to the number of professionals, the IT industry in India in 2016 is likely to be second in the world after the United States, with the latter employing between 1.25 and 1.33 times more professionals.

• Even in 2016, the IT industry in the United States is likely to generate approximately USD 810 billion in annual revenue, which would be approximately five times the revenue of the corresponding industry in India.

• The IT industries in both the U.S. and India have become inextricably linked with one another and with the rest of the world. Both the countries are likely to import, as well as export more IT services and products, at least for the next 7 to 8 years.

Appeasement is never good for a nation

2008-08-07T10:54:00.001+05:30

10,000 forest trees are chopped down to build the Mughal road in Kashmir. No one makes a noise.

Acres of land in the Kashmir valley are given to install mobile phone towers. No one screams.

Acres and acres of land in the Kashmir valley are allotted to lay sewage and drinking water pipes. No one objects.

But when 40 hectares of uninhabitable land is handed over to the Shri Amarnath Shrine Board to provide better facilities to the Amarnath Yatra

pilgrims, all hell breaks loose.

Why? Because the Shri Amarnath Shrine Board caters to Hindu pilgrims who want to visit the Amarnath shrine in the valley of Kashmir. It is as simple as that.

Politically correct politicians, policy-makers and administrators might try to tell you that it is not about religion, but the fact of the matter is that it is all about religion. It is a design by communal forces within the valley to completely Islamicise the valley by removing every symbol of Hinduism and other faiths from the valley.

Today, these communal forces are preventing the setting up of facilities for the yatra, tomorrow they will even go to the extent of banning the yatra altogether.

The land transfer fiasco has already consumed the Ghulam

Nabi Azad-led Congress government and is on its way to now adversely damage the state's economy. The fear psychosis has already resulted in a sharp decline of tourists to the valley. Counter-strikes and bandhs announced by the pro-land-transfer parties within the Jammu province have paralysed the life in that part of the state as well.

So far it has been a win-lose situation in favour of communal forces in the valley.

Let us take a hard look at the arguments presented by the locals who opposed the transfer of land:

1. The allotment would have adversely affected the environment around the area. One wonders where these tree-hugging environmentalists were when the same government allowed the felling of 10,000 forest trees to build the 89 km-long Mughal road.

40 hectares of land that was going to be used to provide temporary shelters and night-time facilities to pilgrims was in fact going to help in proper maintenance of the current day waste that actually pollutes the environment. But who can argue with senseless politicians who instigate people to come out on the streets?

2. The allotment is the government's ploy to settle Hindus from outside the state to change the demographics of the valley. Look, who is talking! One has to only go back 18 years in the history and check who changed the demographics of the valley.

Islamic terrorists changed the demographics of the valley by ethnically cleansing Kashmiri Hindus from the valley. I wonder where these we-do-not-want-to-change-demographics-folks were when Kashmiri Hindus were slaughtered and the valley's demographics were altered.

One would like to ask a few questions: a. Is 40 hectares of land enough to settle so many Hindus that it would change the demographics of the valley?

b. By putting this argument of demographic change, are the valley's Muslims implying that Hindus are not welcome in the valley anymore? And I do not mean the Hindus from outside Kashmir. I mean the Hindus from the state of Jammu & Kashmir itself.

What if the Hindus, who hold the state subject certificate of J&K state and are legally allowed to purchase land in any part of the state want to purchase land in the area around the Holy Amarnath? Are the valley's Muslims saying that those Hindus cannot buy the land there and settle down? Is that what they are implying? Are they trying to protect the environment by preventing the Hindus from settling in the valley?

Another argument Kashmiri Muslims present is that the land cannot be allotted to the Shrine Board because Article 370 does not allow anyone outside of J&K to own land. Their argument is that since the J&K governor is the chairman of the board and he is an outsider, this transfer of land is illegal.

How dumb does one have to be to understand that the land is transferred to the Shrine Board which is an institution based in the state of J&K and created by the J&K government. The land is not transferred to the chairman or the CEO of the board per se.

Having touched upon the outlandish arguments of those who oppose the allotment of land, let us look at some facts and the real story:

It was during the first three years of the Mufti Mohammad Sayeed-Ghulam Nabi Azad coalition government that the original proposal of land transfer was initiated and cleared. It was under Mufti Sayeed's leadership that his forest minister Qazi Mohammad Afzal and law minister Muzzafar Hussain Baig originally cleared the proposal. It just so happened that due to red tape, the proposal was finally approved by the cabinet when Azad had taken over as chief minister during the second three-year part of the six-year term.

The same PDP led by Mufti Sayeed was originally okay with this proposal. But as soon as the PDP smelt that terrorist outfits like the Hizbul Mujahideen

were not in favour of the allotment of land and realised that it could become a polarising issue to whip up sentiments to garner votes in the upcoming assembly election, it backtracked.

Since it is an election year, the National Conference and other smaller political parties would not let the PDP cash in on this opportunity alone. They jumped into the fray and whipped up sentiments by fooling the local Kashmiri Muslims. And that leaves the Congress. How could the Congress not try to cash in on this polarising issue in an election year?

Azad did not waste any time and revoked his cabinet's decision to appease the Kashmiri Muslim vote bank. He did not just stop there. In addition to revoking his own order, he also effectively disbanded the Shri Amarnath Shrine Board. Now that is some level of appeasement! That is the real story behind the story.

It is an issue created by Mufti Sayeed to polarise the vote banks. It is his design of playing politics with the religious sentiments of lakhs of Hindus from all over the country.

Now that we know the real story behind the story, how about the Hindu pilgrims who want to visit the shrine and what about their fundamental rights to practice their religion with complete security, dignity and honour?

Isn't it a shame that Hindus living in India, where 80 per cent of population is Hindu, cannot freely visit the shrine and expect better facilities? It is only in India that the majority community has to make all the sacrifices in favour of minorities because our politicians believe in appeasing Muslims at the cost of Hindus.

National Conference leader Omar Abdullah on a television debate on this issue asked why there is a need for land and new facilities when the pilgrimage has been going on for many years.

Does Omar Abdullah mean to say that there is no need to improve the facilities provided during the treacherous pilgrimage? Is he implying that if the yatris were okay for so many hundred years, then why change and improve the facilities?

I have never heard him say such things with regards to the Haj pilgrimage. Every year Muslims from Kashmir and the rest of the country want better facilities and subsidies for Haj pilgrims. But when it comes to providing better facilities to Shri Amarnath pilgrims, it becomes a sore point for Kashmiri Muslims and their leaders.

Heavy rains, snowstorms, landslides and hostile environment took away 256 lives during the yatra in 1996. And Omar Abdullah has the audacity to promote the status quo!

Some of you might argue that it was not the valley's Muslims, but the political parties and terrorists who opposed the land transfer order and forced people to come out on the streets.

I can buy that argument, but that does not absolve the valley's people from their responsibility? They cannot always support these fundamentalist forces and then at the same time claim innocence.

They did the same in 1989 and in the early 1990s when they either stood as mute spectators or as vocal supporters while Kashmiri Hindus were ethnically cleansed. As a good citizen, it is incumbent upon them to raise their voice against these dreaded forces and stop this madness.

If they sincerely believe in peace, then they need to stand up and reject these terrorist outfits and their masters. Conversely, if they don't, then they are as much party to the madness as the principals and thus need to be held accountable.

Appeasement policies are never good for a nation, particularly for a nation like India that is so diverse in ethnicity and culture. Whether it is amending the Constitution during the Shah Bano case, releasing terrorists during the Rubaiya Sayeed kidnapping case, freeing dreaded terrorists during the IC-814 hijacking or continuing the temporary Constitutional provision of Article 370, all such policies will one day result in the nation's doom.

It is incumbent upon the leaders of the nation as well as the citizenry to be on guard and not allow such appeasement policies to take effect in a nation that is based on the concept of secularism, democracy and fairness to one and all.

by Lalit Koul

Corruption, officer shortage dent military's image

2008-08-06T15:08:00.001+05:30

An alarming rise in the number of Indian military officers charged with corruption, senior ranks quitting due to frustrating service conditions and increasing instances of 'fragging', in which disgruntled soldiers have shot dead their seniors, are severely damaging the image of the country's defense forces.

There is no rush of youths to join the once-favored military, and the persisting shortage of officers in the 1.1-million-strong army is now around 11,000. The navy and air force too face a shortage of officers but not as severe as the army.

Senior officials cite expanding employment opportunities in the private sector as the reason behind this shortage.

But serving and retired officers said this was only part of the cause and that the services too had to take responsibility for lowering the military's image and overall standing in the country's order of preference for employment.

'Standards have changed. Bribery and corruption have seeped deep into the army ' retired Lt. Gen. Harish Chander Puri said. A larger number of officers in the army, particularly the senior ones, are increasingly becoming as corrupt, if not more so, than their civilian and political counterparts, he added.

Serving army officers say the 'rot' in service ethics has been steadily creeping into the services.

Till the 1980's military officers were considered upright men, respected in society and eagerly sought after by parents as suitable matches for their daughters.

Retired military men talk nostalgically of the days when a mere note from the commanding officer on behalf of any jawan to the local authorities back in his village carried weight.

Those were times when the esprit d'corps in the apolitical service was strong and invitations to riotous, albeit swinging, regimental officers' messes much sought after.

Salaries were low but the lifestyle was somewhat lavish in what was largely a gentleman's army.

'Many officers were, in reality, eager boys trapped inside grown bodies seeking to indulge in passions like shikar, riding, polo and outdoor living and danger at state expense,' said retired Brig. Arun Sahgal, an armoured corps officer. Colonial traditions made military service even more attractive.

From independence till the third war with Pakistan in 1971, there was ample opportunity for the latter.

And it was adequately vindicated, except for the disastrous 1962 war with China in which India came off badly. But in this instance, it was the political and not the military establishment that forced ignominy on the country.

The flamboyance, bravery and tactical brilliance of all ranks in the three wars with Pakistan are well recorded and form the subject of study in combat institutions around the world.

Politics was rarely, if at all, discussed by officers who if passed over for promotion retired gracefully, confident of their status in society.

Promotions were merit-based and, by and large, fair with undeserving candidates adhering to the Peter Principle and rarely ever crossing their limits of incompetence.

Army chiefs and senior commanders brooked no political interference in operational matters and were listened to with respect by the establishment.

When asked by prime minister Indira Gandhi to move into East Pakistan (later Bangladesh) in early 1971, the chief of army staff Gen. Sam Manekshaw (later Field Marshal) firmly told her that it would take at least 10 months before his force would be ready for combat. Gandhi paid heed and Bangladesh came into being in December that year.

In short, the olive green uniform enjoyed an exalted status it was soon to lose.

Its professionalism and apolitical stance began to slowly unravel after the Third Pay Commission in the late 1970's when officer ranks were diluted, ostensibly to enhance career prospects, but their responsibilities reduced in inverse proportion to their promotions.

Periodic cadre reviews further led to a lopsided rank structure, creating a situation where Lt. generals, among the seniormost army officers, and their equivalents in the navy and air force, discharged duties previously performed by middle ranking Lt Colonels and similar ranks in the other two services.

At present there are 732 brigadiers, 213 major generals and 60-odd Lt. generals, around a third of whom are replaced every two-three years. Pressure on promotions also meant that they served 12-18 months in their commands, leaving them little time to effect any meaningful change in the command and control structure.

The cadre re-assessment was the moment for which politicians and civil servants had long been waiting. Having always looked upon the military with suspicion after independence, they were simply waiting to gain ascendancy over the services.

Sadly, succeeding military chiefs and senior officers did not disappoint by seeking political and bureaucratic patronage for career enhancement.

As a consequence, the military's standing deteriorated over the years. It reached the unbelievable stage where it was almost entirely excluded from the 'security loop'.

The service chiefs, for instance, were told about Pokhran II, India's multiple nuclear tests in 1998, just hours before they happened; that too, as an insurance against any 'adverse reaction' from neighbouring Pakistan.

The military was also unaware of India's cache of chemical weapons stored at various Defence Research and Development Organisation laboratories across India that are now being destroyed under the global Chemicals Weapon Convention.

Today India's Mughal-like army, with one of the highest teeth-to-tail ratios, faces a crisis of confidence, most military officers concur.

Besides struggling against the slew of corruption charges exposed by tehelka.com, the news website, in 2001 and the more recent allegations levelled by the Central Bureau of Investigation against senior officers for arms imports, the military has also to battle lop-sided promotion and arbitrary equipping policies as it struggles to re-order and modernise itself within a nuclear weapon state.

by Rahul Bedi a defence analyst

Siachen scam: Army gets final warning

2008-08-06T15:03:00.000+05:30

After allegedly failing to cooperate with the Jammu and Kashmir Police, the Army was served with a final notice to produce its officers and jawans for questioning in connection with the alleged pilferage of food and clothes meant for troops on the Siachen glacier.

This is the third and final notice and after this the police will approach a court for issuing non-bailable warrant against the officials besides seeking a direction to the Army for providing details about the scam, official sources said.

Defence Minister A K Antony had informed Parliament earlier this month that after an internal probe by the Army into the pilferage scam, the authorities had initiated administrative action against three officers and three junior commissioned officers.

The entire scam to light after the police found special rations meant for soldiers serving in Siachen Glaciers being sold in open market. Immediately, police wanted to question some of the officials including one in the rank of Brigadier stationed at Leh-based 14 corps.

Officials in Jammu and Kashmir Home Department said the Army top brass had assured cooperation once its inquiry was completed.

Now that their inquiry report is over, neither the report has been handed over to the police nor the officials handed over for questioning, senior officials said.

The army had filed a complaint against Leh's Senior Superintendent of Police Alok Kumar for his alleged aggressive attitude towards its personnel deployed in the Himalayan town located in north Kashmir, a charge vehemently denied by the state government.

An IPS officer of 1997 batch, Kumar was instrumental earlier in alleged Petrol and Diesel scam, where few army officials allegedly entered into a criminal conspiracy with petrol dealers and sold the oil in open market while filling the tankers with water.

In the present case, the Police have registered 11 FIRs since July this year after finding food packets and other equipment meant for Siachen being sold in the open market but the army has refused to cooperate in the probe.

Police arrested 31 people, including shopkeepers, in various areas in this Himalayan town located in north Jammu and Kashmir. Police registered the first FIR against shopkeepers and unknown army officers under various sections of the Ranbir Penal Code related to cheating.

A few of them have made confessional statements before magistrates, during which they named senior army officers who allegedly supplied the materials to them, they said.

The police seized the boots and trousers at a time when the army's high command and the defence ministry are running from pillar to post for meet the requirements of troops in Siachen. The local command too had made a requisition for the special high altitude gear needed by the soldiers.

Recently, army rations including high-calorie food items meant for soldiers defending the borders in inhospitable terrain, were found on sale in the markets of Leh.

Chattisinghpura -Inquiry finds Indian troops did killings

2008-08-06T14:57:00.002+05:30

Troops hunting terrorists killed and buried Indian civilians and passed them off as Pakistani militants responsible for killing Sikhs in Kashmir, an inquiry by India's top investigating agency has revealed. When villagers' protests led to the bodies being exhumed, the army doctored DNA tests to show that the remains were those of militants from across the border, India's Central Bureau of Investigation said in its final report two weeks ago. Human rights groups frequently report abuses by security forces in the Himalayan territory claimed by both India and Pakistan. But this was the first case of its kind handed over to the agency for investigation. The bureau found four army officers guilty of killing the civilians.

Hours before then-U.S. president Bill Clinton visited India in March 2000, 35 Sikhs were killed in Chattisinghpura village in Kashmir by suspected Islamic militants in army uniforms. India blamed Pakistan-based terrorists for the attack.

Four days later, 17 Muslim residents from three neighboring villages disappeared. Simultaneously, reports emerged that five Pakistani terrorists involved in the massacre of the Chattisinghpura Sikhs had been killed by the army. Juma Khan, a 45 year old from Brari Angan, was among the villagers picked up without explanation by the soldiers. "I thought they would not harm him because he was a family man and was not involved in anything," Khan's wife, Roshan Jan, said recently.

Two days after Khan's arrest, the army said its sharps******* had shot dead five "foreign militants" during a "ferocious encounter." There were no autopsies before the bodies were buried, but locals determined from clothing and personal items recovered at the gravesites that the bodies were those of missing villagers. As violent protests raged around Kashmir, local officials ordered exhumations. Although the bodies were charred, the army fatigues in which they were clothed were mysteriously intact. Relatives of a local cattle trader said his body was headless. There were no bullet wounds in another corpse. The chopped-off nose and chin of a shepherd was discovered in a grave holding another body.

Farooq Abdullah, then chief minister of the state, ordered DNA tests to determine identities. But that plan came under a cloud when two forensic laboratories said DNA samples from relatives of the dead men had been tampered with. "In one case, blood samples were said to belong to the mother and daughter of one victim. But not only were the samples male in origin, both belonged to the same man," a senior scientist at Calcutta's Central Forensic Science Laboratory told investigators. In three cases, samples allegedly collected from female relatives were found to have come from men. Another woman's sample contained the DNA of two individuals.

Two doctors involved in collecting the samples were suspended by the government, and a new team, headed by a senior police officer, collected fresh blood samples in April 2002. The new DNA tests established the dead men were "not foreign terrorists, as contended by the forces, but innocent civilians," a CBI investigator said this week.

The agency concluded the doctors, under pressure from the army, had tampered with the first DNA tests. "We have irrefutable evidence of at least seven such fake encounters, where Indian security forces killed 13 innocent Indian villagers in the last five years and passed them off as Pakistani militants," said Pervez Imroz, a human rights lawyer who spearheads the Association of the Parents of Disappeared Persons. "However, since 1989 more than 8,000 Kashmiris have disappeared from the custody of the security forces and we know nothing of their whereabouts."

Narayana Murthy's words of wisdom

2008-07-28T10:24:00.000+05:30

Way back in 1981, Nagavara Ramarao Narayana Murthy and six other young engineering graduates launched an information technology company from a garage in Mumbai.

Murthy had borrowed Rs 10,000 from his wife (Sudha) to launch Infosys Technologies. Infy, as it is popularly known, recently, reported a net profit of Rs 1,302 crore (Rs 13.02 billion) for the quarter ended June 2008.

For 21 years Murthy served as the company's chief executive officer, before he handed over the reins to co-founder Nandan M Nilekani in March 2002.

To know more about the man, his life's philosophy and his success mantra, read on...

"We were huddled together in a small room in Bombay (now Mumbai) in the hope of creating a brighter future for ourselves, for the Indian society, and perhaps, we dreamed, even for the world."

"Our value system was like the British Constitution - it was all unwritten but extremely well practiced...Our value system is the true strength of Infosys."

"Unless we can sell well we cannot do anything, such as create jobs, pay good salaries and satisfy investors. Right from the beginning we realised that we have to focus on selling better and better in the marketplace."

"Truth is God. Our success at Infosys depends on our continual learning."

"Entrepreneurship is about running a marathon, not a 100 metre dash."

"Capitalism and Marxism intend to better the lot of humanity. Consequently, responsible Capitalism that creates wealth and allows it to percolate down seems to be a better option."

"I am a 100% free marketeer but I call myself a compassionate capitalist. While I'm very conservative in economic matters I'm very liberal about social matters."

"If we have to make life better for these (rural) people and give them reasonable standards of living, disposable incomes, healthcare and nutrition and education, I personally believe we have to look at low-tech manufacturing to start with and then high-tech manufacturing in a big way just as China has done because most of these people are semi-literate or educated at a very basic level."

"I define globalisation as sourcing material from where it is cheapest, talent from where it best available, producing where it is most cost-effective, and selling where the markets are -- without being constrained by national boundaries."

"Entrepreneurship, resulting in large-scale job creation, (is) the only viable mechanism for eradicating poverty in societies."

"I believe that we have all at some time eaten the fruit from trees that we did not plant. In the fullness of time, when it is our turn to give, it behooves us in turn to plant gardens that we may never eat the fruit of, which will largely benefit generations to come. I believe this is our sacred responsibility, one that I hope you will shoulder in time."

China vs India: Which stock market is better?

2008-07-23T10:22:00.000+05:30

For all of 2006 and till October 2007, the Chinese stock markets were on a roll. From a paltry 1,220 in December 2005, the Shanghai Composite Index multiplied 4.27 times to 6,429 by October, registering one of the most rapid rises in stock markets across the globe.

During the same period, the Dow appreciated by just 32 per cent, the FTSE by 20 per cent, the Nikkei by 8.5 per cent, Hang Seng by 114 per cent and Sensex by 115 per cent.

China is a nation of high savers. Their savings rate is known to be 40 per cent. In those 22 months, the Chinese poured their savings into the stock markets as if there was no tomorrow.

Brokerage accounts were opened at the rate of 2 lakh accounts per day. Even during the frenzy of the Reliance Power issue, the NSDL opened under 4 lakh accounts in the entire month of December 2007.

During the scorching rise, the benchmark index fell for just three months. The longest running bull phase was for 10 months from August 2006 to May 2007. The best phase that the Indian markets have had in the history since 1990 was for nine months during the Harshad Mehta-led rally, from July 1991 to March 1992.

Now the shoe is on the other foot. Shanghai is the worst performing stock market of the world in CY 2008. It has just replaced Vietnam at the top of the ladder among the worst performers with a 48.97 per cent fall.

Vietnam with 47.16 per cent comes second and our Sensex with a 35.17 per cent slide takes third place at the victory podium. From its rally peak of 6,429, the Chinese index is down 55 per cent.

But the Indian bourses are much better in many ways. There are just 893 companies listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, compared to 4,909 companies listed on the BSE and more than 2,500 stocks traded every day.

Indian markets by comparison are much more advanced compared to their Chinese counterparts, which are still planning to introduce index futures trading. In India, we not only have index futures but also index options, stock futures and stock options apart from several sectoral indices.

Though we are ahead in terms of regulation and capital market reforms, China is huge in terms of overall size. Even after seeing a deflation of 58 per cent from the highs, their market cap is $2.58 trillion, compared to ours at $0.96 trillion.

At the peak, their market cap was $4.75 trillion and ours was $1.89 trillion. In terms of market cap to GDP ratio we are better placed at 0.97; the Chinese are at 0.67. At the peak, we were at 1.96 and the Chinese at 1.38.

While listed Chinese companies are smaller in number, they are huge by Indian standards. The IPO of the Industrial and Commercial bank of China, which came in October 2006, was a mammoth at $21 billion and the largest the world had ever seen. The largest we have had in India was Reliance Power, which raised just $2.9 billion.

China is a real giant when it comes to consumption of commodities. It consumes 34 per cent of the world's steel, 29 per cent of zinc, 28 per cent of aluminium and 25 per cent of copper. It also produces 36 per cent of the world's steel, 32 per cent of zinc and 30 per cent of aluminium.

As a result, if China catches cold, the world sneezes. Earlier this month, when China closed down a few smelters to improve the quality of air in and around Beijing ahead of the Olympics, aluminium prices raced to an all-time high.

Foreign direct investment (FDI) is another area where China leads by a very wide margin. China has received $500 billion of FDI since 2000. India, by comparison, has got just $15.8 billion since 1991.

Till now, China was considered the world's workshop and India, the software lab. But the appreciation of the Renminbi by 21 per cent since October last has suddenly made Indian capital goods competitive. There was never an issue of quality with India. India could soon attract FDI in the sector. Hopefully, things will change for the better for India as the Dragon breathes a little easy.

Taxi + drive = smooth ride

2008-07-04T09:15:00.000+05:30

Down a bustling hallway, across a call-centre and rows of busy executives, Neeraj Gupta, MD of Meru Cabs, paces restlessly. It's almost 4 pm, and he hasn't come up with a new idea all day "Every day, I need to come up with one new idea to help further the business," he said, as the turquoise blue of his firm's Maruti Esteem taxis seeped into his cabin's large bay windows. "It gives me sleepless nights if I don't manage to."

Idea
One thousand taxi drivers and a customer base of 30,000 passengers across the city are sure glad he came up the idea for a 24x7 call-taxi service in January 2007. An idea he got from Singapore's nearly 25,000-strong round-the-clock, on-call taxi service, which bowled him over.

Business
In July 2006, six months before he started up, the state government had announced it would grant licences to anyone who wanted to operate private taxi fleets.

His timing was perfect. Gupta set about creating his business plan. The 300 per cent growth of Gupta's four-year-old private fleet service V Links - from one bus to 13,000 vehicles - was testament to the fact Gupta was no Johnny-come-lately.

Over six months, he sat with global consulting firm Accenture's executives and convinced private equity firm India Value Fund to invest Rs 10 crore in the venture. He made three trips to Singapore to study its taxi system and finally sourced a state-of-the-art mobile communication device system - a mapping device to track the exact location of the taxi - from Australia at Rs 10 crore for 1,600 vehicles. His project was ready to roll.

"We carried out a survey on the passenger transport market and felt that Neeraj's concept had huge potential," said Prateek Roongta, vice president of the fund. "He had four solid years of experience in running a private fleet service - the perfect platform to securely invest in."

But manpower sourcing turned out to be a lot more difficult than Gupta had expected. The government had stopped issuing fresh permits to new drivers in 1997. "So we had to convince the existing black-and-yellow drivers to join us," said Gupta. "But the fear of losing their freedom to a corporate set-up with fixed works hours held most of them back."

But all it took was convincing the first batch of five to sign up in July 2007. "We told them that they were free to take as many street pick-ups as they wanted when they were not on call, as long as they submitted Rs 600 to the company daily," explained Sajid Rane, senior manager, operations at Meru cabs. "What they earned beyond this was theirs as the company managed maintenance and vehicular insurance."

The first batch of recruits then convinced their peers to make the switch. Within four months, the company had 1,000 drivers on its payroll. Mohammed Sheikh was one of them. He cannot believe how much his life has changed over the past nine months.

He is glad he took fleet service Meru Cabs up on its offer to Mumbai's taxi drivers: Trade your black-and-yellow taxi for an air-conditioned Maruti Esteem, wear a smart ochre and chocolate brown uniform and double your income.

It was a challenge when he changed over. The rattletrap had been the 32-year-old breadwinner's sole source of livelihood for two-and-a-half years, and helped him buy a one-room home in Mumbai. "But I don't regret my decision," said Sheikh of his giving up the familiar. "I now earn almost double what I did before, and my passengers treat me respectfully. I enjoy going to work everyday."

As Sheikh talks about the gifts he bought his family a month ago, ten clean shaven, uniformed men seated in the company's plush meeting room nod in unison to his testimony. Their lives changed too after they took a risk and changed course.

"As a Cool Cab driver, I would spend hours unengaged by the side of the road and make half the money I do today," said another Meru driver, whose earnings have even peaked to Rs 10,000 to Rs 12,000 a day over the last six months. "The permission to take both street pick-ups and phone appointments keeps me busy all day."

Success

Meru's drivers are not the only ones to praise Gupta's business plan. Smita Shrivastava, a corporate communications manager at Mastek India, uses only Meru cabs to ferry her to the airport for business trips. "I can be assured of a pick-up even if I make a call to Meru 10 minutes before I leave," she said. "The drivers are very polite and hand over a printed bill at the end of the journey. You feel safe knowing you are not being taken for a ride."

That's because Gupta's blueprint ensures that the entire service works with clockwork precision. A call on the helpline sets off a flashing red dot on a digital map stored in the call centre executive's computer. That helps him or her locate the caller's location and the number of engaged and free drivers in the vicinity.

The executive then sends a message with the caller's address to the closest free vehicle through the communication system. The address flashes across a digital screen inside the vehicle.

"I've timed the entire process," said Gupta, pointing to tiny maps with red and green dots across the call centre. "If executed perfectly, it shouldn't take more than two minutes. I've invested in GPS (global positioning system) and MCD (mobile communication device) because you will never be able to grow beyond a fleet of 200 without the right technology."

It's this eye for detail that is evident in Gupta's choice of drivers as well. Each of the 1,000 drivers has been picked after three rounds of scrutiny - a personal interview, a psychometric test and a five-day training programme at the Meru Academy, the small training division.

In fact, he picks just one percent of the 1,000 applications he receives every month. "One of the major complaints that customers had with the black-and-yellow cabs was bad driver behaviour," Gupta said. "We have to ensure that our drivers speak courteously, dress neatly and are on their best behaviour while on duty."

Erring drivers are counselled and put through monthly etiquette refresher courses.

Future

Gupta displays a similar perfectionism when chalking out his expansion plans. With his fleet of 500 having made a statement across Mumbai, Gupta is in the process of expanding to a fleet of 400 in Hyderabad, 250 in Delhi and 350 in Bangalore. And Roongta of private equity firm India Value Fund, which invested in Meru, said Gupta is bang on course. "Over the last year alone, Meru's services have grown so rapidly," he said. "Like all evolving economies, different transport formats will eventually co-exist, posing no threat to the other."

Gupta also has a team that is in charge of thoroughly researching the potential market in Chennai, Ahmedabad and Pune, with the aim of permeating every major metro by March 2009. "We're not even considering Kolkata, which already has a well-established private cab network," Gupta said. "But I am determined to have 5,000 Meru Cabs plying across the country by December. When your business plan is well thought-out, nothing can stop you from expanding."

Ten mistakes equity investors generally make

2008-07-03T15:40:00.001+05:30

1. Guided by greed

Many investors have been losing money in stock markets owing to their inability to control greed and fear. The lure of quick wealth is difficult to resist, particularly in a bull market. Greed augments when investors hear stories of fabulous returns being made in the stock market in a short period of time and, thus, lose their hard-earned money in many cases.

2. Following herd mentality

Following herd mentality is another reason for the investors’ losses. “It has been witnessed that the typical buyer’s decision is heavily influenced by the actions of his acquaintances, neighbours or relatives. So, if everybody around is investing in a particular stock, the tendency for potential investors is to do the same. But this strategy may backfire in the long run,” says Ashish Kapur, CEO, Invest Shoppe India Ltd

3. Resorting to speculation

Investors also face losses because they speculate and buy shares of unknown companies. They should, therefore, avoid relying on random tips and go for long-term gains only.

4. Lack of research

Proper research should be undertaken before investing in stocks. But this is rarely done. Investors generally go by the name of a company or the industry they belong to. But this is not the right way of putting one’s money into the stock market. “Therefore, if one doesn’t have time or temperament for studying the markets, one should always take the help of a suitable financial advisor,” says Kapur.

5. Creating leveraged positions

Many investors suffer from creating heavy positions in the futures segment without really understanding the risks involved. Instead of creating wealth, however, these investors burn their fingers very badly in case the sentiment in the market reverses.

6. Panic selling

In a bear market, investors panic and sell their shares at rock bottom prices. Trading on the bourses was suspended on May 17, 2004, May 18, 2006 and recently on January 22, 2008. Investors who had taken speculative positions lost heavily when blood was on the street. Even investors who had the capacity to hold on to their investments, lost faith in the markets and sold their investments in a hurry, thus incurring heavy losses.

7. Timing the market

Many investors try to time the market. But this has not proven to be a great strategy. Historically, in fact, it has been witnessed that even great bull runs have shown bouts of panic moments. The volatility witnessed in the markets has inevitably made investors lose money despite the great bull run. Therefore, only prudent investors who put in money systematically, in the right shares and hold on to their investments patiently, have made outstanding returns. So it’s not ‘timing the market’, but ‘time in the market’ which creates wealth. Hence, it is prudent to have patience and always keep a long-term broad picture in mind.

8. Putting all eggs in one basket

Another mistake which investors generally make is non-diversification of their portfolio. They generally put all their money in limited and favourite stocks which are in momentum. So, investors should diversify their portfolio across industries and size of the companies. Also, it is important to diversify across asset classes – equities, real estate, bonds, commodities, cash etc.

9. Avoiding financial planning

Investors also do not apply financial planning practices in their investment approach. They should follow an asset allocation model and invest only in long-term funds in the equity markets. They should also keep rebalancing their overall portfolio from time to time to keep their exposure to equity markets at the desired ratio of the total portfolio.

10. No monitoring of portfolio

We are living in a global village. Any important event happening in any part of the world has an impact on our financial markets. Hence, we need to constantly monitor our portfolio and keep affecting the desired changes in it. If one can’t review one’s portfolio due to time-constraint or lack of knowledge, they should take the help of a financial advisor.

Pilgrims deserve better

2008-07-01T08:36:00.001+05:30

It is distressing and alarming that communal tension is rising over the decision of the Jammu and Kashmir state government to transfer a little less than 40 hectares of land to the Sri Amarnathji Shrine Board to enable the latter to provide accommodation facilities to the thousands of Hindu pilgrims who visit the Amarnath shrine every summer. One cannot expect separatist and militant outfits in Jammu and Kashmir to make a sober and mature appraisal of the larger issues at stake. It is the attitude of mainstream political parties that is most disappointing and worrying.

The specious grounds for the the Peoples Democratic Party's objections are that the implementation of the decision of the state government would change the "eco-cultural character" of the state. What is the nature of this eco-cultural character of Jammu and Kashmir that is so fragile that it cannot survive the transfer of a small tract of land? Does the Kashmir valley have only a "Muslim" character? What happened to the much-touted Kashmiriyat? Or is that a politically correct platitude that has become an inconvenience to be ignored now that most of the Kashmiri Pandits have been hounded out of their homes in the Valley to Jammu, Delhi and elsewhere in India? Kashmiri politicians owe it to the rest of India to clarify their position on this issue.

To my mind, whether or not the land in question should be transferred to the SASB is only a technical question, not the heart of the issue. The more important thing is whether the state government feels that it has an obligation to improve the facilities that would make the pilgrimage of thousands of Hindu devotees more secure and more comfortable. For centuries pilgrims have been making the arduous trip to Amarnath cave without the benefit of any facilitation by the state. They relied on the local people for food, accommodation and other facilities. They lived in tents. But a caring State in independent India can and should do more.

It would be instructive to see what the Government of India does for Haj pilgrims visiting Mecca and Medina. The government is, in the words of External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee, "committed to ensure that the best possible arrangements are put in place for the comfort and well-being of Indian pilgrims to facilitate their sacred pilgrimage." The "welfare and well-being of Haj pilgrims," he says, "is always a matter of utmost concern to the government."

In keeping with these public policy statements, the Government of India makes elaborate arrangements for the welfare of Haj pilgrims and strives to improve the facilities provided to them every year. That is how it should be. The Government of India, and the ministry of external affairs in particular, deserves credit for providing perhaps the best arrangements that any government makes for their Haj pilgrims.

And what exactly does the Government of India do? For starters, it provides an airfare subsidy to about 100,000 pilgrims selected by the Haj Committee of India who go for Haj annually. Pilgrims pay only Rs 12,000 for their air travel. This figure has remained unchanged for at least a decade or more.

According to official figures, this subsidy was Rs 280 crores in 2006, or about Rs 28,000 per pilgrim. Today, with rising fuel prices, this figure would have gone up to Rs 350-400 crores. Although there is a 2006 Allahabad high court judgment ruling against this subsidy, it continues to be given because the government got the Supreme Court to pass a stay order.

Add to this the losses suffered by Air India, and the inconvenience to passengers because its planes are diverted to carry Haj pilgrims. For the convenience of pilgrims, charter flights are operated directly from 16 airports in India to Saudi Arabia. Returning pilgrims can transport 10 litres of holy Zam Zam water with them free of cost. At Delhi airport there is a separate Haj terminal. To improve the comfort of pilgrims, Air India has been advised to use wide-body jets in future for their Haj flights.

Great attention and care to Haj matters is given at the highest levels of government. The United Progressive Alliance government has successfully lobbied with the Saudi government to increase the quota for pilgrims from India, as a result of which the annual quota has increased by 38,000 over the last four years. It will go up by a further 3,000 or so this year because of the exertions of External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee during his visit to Saudi Arabia in April this year.

There is a separate Haj cell in the ministry of external affairs. The Haj Committee of India has its own premises in Mumbai. Similarly the State Haj Committees have their own premises in various other Indian cities. These facilities have been built on land provided by the state governments.

Very high priority is given to Haj matters in the mandate given by the government to both the Indian ambassador in Riyadh and the Indian consul general in Jeddah. Every government in Delhi has ensured that only Muslims are appointed to these posts, a practical decision intended to facilitate their travel to Mecca and Medina, where non-Muslims are not allowed. There is also a separate consul for Haj matters in the Indian consulate general in Jeddah.

Accommodation in Mecca and Medina is decided keeping in mind the need to provide maximum convenience and comfort to the pilgrims. Typically, all accommodation has lifts, telephones, running water, electricity and telephone at the minimum. There is total computerisation of pilgrim location and movement. During Haj, a large contingent of seasonal local staff, supervisors, data entry operators, as well as drivers and messengers (whose job is to round up and bring home safely elderly pilgrims who may have got lost) is appointed by the consulate general of India, Jeddah, during the Haj period.

For Haj 2007, a contingent of 115 doctors (including 63 specialists with post-graduate degrees) and 141 nurses and other para-medical staff, 3 coordinators, 46 assistant Haj officers, 165 Haj assistants and 186 Khadimul Hujjaj were sent from India on short-term deputation to Saudi Arabia. Special attention is given to medical facilities for the pilgrims.

Some of the facilities provided by the government are: arrangements for polio, meningitis and influenza vaccinations for pilgrims before departure; a 75-bed hospital and 12 branch offices-cum-dispensaries in Mecca; a 15-bed hospital and 6 branch offices-cum-dispensaries in Medina; three medical teams at Jeddah airport to provide medical care round the clock to Haj pilgrims; 17 ambulances in Mecca and Medina; supply of medicines, medical supplies and critical medical equipment from India. All this adds up to the total money spent by the government to facilitate a hassle-free Haj pilgrimage each year for tens of thousands of Muslims from India.

Perhaps our self-righteous and petty Kashmiri politicians in India's only Muslim-majority state should reflect over these facts and tell us whether they think it is at least their moral if not political obligation to be more caring and sensitive to Hindu pilgrims visiting Amarnath. If we can do so much for Indians going on a pilgrimage abroad, should we not be able to do as much if not better for pilgrims at home?

For a start, should not the Jammu and Kashmir government at least try to match the facilities given to pilgrims to Vaishno Devi shrine, which is located in the same state? And is it too much to expect our politicians and other "secular" leaders to be a bit more courageous and vocal in trying to knock some sense into the heads of shortsighted and irresponsible Kashmiri politicians?

As those in power, both in Delhi and Srinagar, ponder over this matter, the litmus test has to be whether the decision finally taken adds to the comfort and convenience of the pilgrims.

Indian citizens and taxpayers deserve honest answers to the questions posed above.

SAM BAHADHUR-Field Marshal Sam Hormusji Framji Jamshedji Manekshaw

2008-06-27T10:35:00.001+05:30

The man eventually destined to be free India's first Field Marshal was born on 03 April 1914 at Amritsar. How did a Parsi couple settle for the holy city of the Sikhs? I once asked him and was told that in 1899, his father recently qualified as a doctor and just married, could make no professional headway in Bombay, and was advised to try his luck at Lahore in the Punjab. With his young wife, he set off by train for Lahore. The long dusty and hot journey took five days and by the end of it, his young wife, who had never left the comforts and civilization of Bombay, was in hysterics and cried to go back. Poor Dr Manekshaw did all he could to comfort her, but as the train steamed into Amritsar, with her first sight of the Sikhs the young bride screamed her lungs out and refused to go any further. So they left the train at Amritsar, and there they stayed for forty-five years.

The Manekshaws had six children, four boys and two girls, and Sam was the fifth child. Sam had his schooling at Nainital's Sherwood College. After completing his schooling, he should have gone to England to pursue higher studies; this was the promise made to him by his father but, fortunately for the Indian Army, Dr Manekshaw felt that this particular son was far too young to be on his own in a foreign country, even with his two elder brothers already studying there. So he was admitted to the Hindu Sabha College, Amritsar. If he had gone abroad, he often reminisces, he would have become a doctor. "What doctor?" I queried, and was told "Gynaecologist."

After a stint in Hindu College, he applied for and was accepted for entry into the first batch of the newly opened Indian Military Academy at Dehradun for training Indians for commissioned rank in the British Indian Army. He received his commission on 04 February 1934 and, after an attachment as was the practice then with a British Infantry Battalion, the 2nd Battalion the Royal Scots, he joined the 4th Battalion, 12 Frontier Force Regiment, commonly called the 54th Sikhs. In 1937, at a social gathering in Lahore he met his future wife, Silloo Bode; they fell in love and were married on 22nd April 1939. Silloo is a graduate of Bombay's renowned Elphinstone College and also studied at the JJ (Jamsetjee Jeejeebhoy) School of Arts there. A voracious reader, a gifted painter and an extremely intelligent and interesting conversationalist, she has made an admirable wife and a wonderful mother.

The outbreak of the Second World War saw the 4/12 Frontier Force Regiment in action in Burma with the famed 17 Infantry Division. Sam was separated from his family for over three years and this separation was the cause of a celebrated example he was later to give while answering questions put to him in his capacity as Chief of the Army Staff by the Pay Commission. The question, which triggered off the reply was, why should the army continue to get separation allowance? This, to clarify, is a token sum every officer and enlisted man gets when his unit moves to a non-family station thus necessitating separation. I say 'token' because the name is a misnomer; whereas it is meant to cover the expenditure incurred in running two establishments, the amount paid is, in fact, a pittance. For example, an officer used to get just seventy rupees a month and the men an even smaller amount. The answer to explain the need was "After my marriage, I went off to war and didn't see my wife for three long years, and when I returned I found I had a brand-new daughter, and the only reason I am sure the child is mine is because she looks just like me." Needless to say, the Pay Commission broke up in laughter, but went away convinced. The separation allowance continues.

On 22 February 1942, occurred the much publicised event when Sam Manekshaw was wounded. The retreat through the Burma jungle ended abruptly for him on 22 February 1942, when seven bullets from a Japanese machine gun whipped through his body. The young captain who had just led two companies in the courageous capture of a vital hill was awarded the Military Cross. "We made an immediate recommendation," a senior officer explained, "Because you can't award a dead man the Military Cross." His orderly Sher Singh evacuated him to the Regimental Aid Post where the regimental medical officer, Captain G M Diwan, treated him overruling his protestations that the doctor treat other patients first. Sam was evacuated to the hospital at Pegu where he was operated upon, and then evacuated further to Rangoon, from where he sailed for India in one of the last ships to leave that port before it fell to the Japanese. He still carries the scars of this wound and I am not quite sure whether it is that or regular exercise that keeps his stomach in -- to the envy of people much younger than he.

I was to see a great deal of Sher Singh during my tenure in Delhi. He and some other grizzled old veterans of the 4/12 Frontier Force Regiment were frequent visitors to Army House and South Block. The entire staff including all guards and sentries, had strict orders that if a man said he was from the 54th Sikhs he was to be led straight to the Chief, whatever the time or whatever the Chief happened to be doing. Consequently, these gentlemen would turn up whenever it suited them with a string of requests that ranged from wanting a bag of sugar for a daughter's marriage (easy to solve) to asking that a relative or friend's relative be given immediate out-of-turn promotion. When I patiently attempted to explained the impossibility of the latter request and others like it, the worthy would bristle and inform me: "In the British time if the Jangi Lat gave an order it was executed without question." No amount of explanation that times had changed and that such Nadirshahi orders would now invite representations which could not possibly be answered, would pacify them and they would go away and complain to the Chief about the incapable and unhelpful Colonel Sahib he had from the Gorkhas.

The war over, saw Sam working in the Military Operations Directorate at Army Headquarters, first as a General Staff Officer Grade I, and later as Director of Military Operations. It was from here that he oversaw the fighting that broke out between India and Pakistan, over Kashmir, the two nations that until so recently had been one. It was also under his direct supervision, when the cease-fire was declared, that the famous line called the Cease Fire Line was drawn. Many, many years later, by a strange coincidence, while he was Chief of the Army Staff, it was he whose brainchild it was to scrap the Cease Fire Line and call it the Line of Actual Control. Promotions followed in rapid succession and 1959 saw Sam as commandant of the Defence Services Staff College. There his outspoken frankness got him into trouble with the Defence Minister, V K Krishna Menon, and his protégé of the time, the late Lieutenant General B M Kaul; a court of inquiry was ordered against him. Despite persistent questioning I have not been able to ascertain from him the reasons and the facts that led up to a situation where the Indian Army could have lost its most brilliant up-and-coming general officer: he just refuses to talk, calling the entire episode, just another phase. Be that as it may, the court of inquiry that was convened with the late Lieutenant General Daulet Singh, then Western Army commander, as presiding officer, exonerated Sam, but before a no case could be announced, fate intervened in the shape of the Chinese hordes that swept over what we had always considered the impregnable Himalayas.

The Indian Army, that proud, disciplined and distinguished force that had fought and triumphed in practically every battlefield of the world, was outmatched, out manoeuvred and outfought; its remnants streamed back dazed and humiliated leaving among the lush green mountains of the North Eastern Frontier Agency and the stark white to Ladakh its dead, its wounded and its pride. The North Eastern Frontier Agency (NEFA), now called Arunachal Pradesh, was where we suffered our worst defeat, and it was to 4 Corps that providence ironically decreed and Army Headquarters ordered Sam Manekshaw to succeed Lieutenant General B M Kaul, the man who had almost ruined his professional career. He took over 4 Corps on 28th November 1962 on promotion to lieutenant general, and the same day addressed a conference of what must surely have been a very shaken group of staff officers. He entered the room with his usual jaunty step, looked as if he were meeting each eye trained on him and said, "Gentleman, I have arrived! There will be no more withdrawals in 4 Corps, Thank You," and walked out. But the charisma that surrounds the man had preceded him and soldier and officer alike knew the 'chosen one' had arrived and henceforth all would be well. It was as if the dark and oppressive atmosphere had suddenly been lightened and Sam was the bearer of the light.

On 04 December 1963, Sam took over as Army Commander in the west, the second rung from the top. One of his Brigade Commanders was H S Yadav, the man who had been the principal prosecution witness in the case cooked up against him in 1961. At a party in an officers mess in Kashmir one evening, talk veered round to Yadav, and the senior brass, knowing the background and not averse to making a few points with the Army Commander, started on what each planned to do to catch or embarrass Yadav. The Army Commander heard this for some moments and then butted in ('before I got sick' as he told me later) with "Look chaps, professionally, Kim Yadav is head and shoulders above most of you, so forget about trying to catch him out. He just lacks character and there is nothing anyone of you can do about that."

At a meeting in Delhi a few months later, Chavan, then the Defence Minister, asked him his views on which army command Sam considered most important, challenging and threatened. Eastern, said Sam, as it had the Chinese in the North, East Pakistan in the South and on its flank insurgency rampant in Nagaland and the Mizo Hills and, if all that was not enough to fill the hands of the incumbent, the troubled state of West Bengal certainly would. Chavan thought over the answer for a few moments and then asked if Sam would like to accept the challenge of taking over that command. He accepted immediately. Eastern Army had to keep one wary eye directed north on the Chinese; another eye had to be kept on erstwhile east Pakistan which lay in its gut, it had to fight insurgency in Nagaland which later spread to the Mizo Hills, and finally it had to watch over the politically volatile states of Assam and West Bengal. It was, therefore, no bed of roses, and the job of lower formations was not facilitated by the army commander's personally coming on the telephone every now and then and ‘grilling' staff officers and commanders with endless questions about detail.

I remember an occasion in Shillong where I once asked the senior staff officer why he was looking a bit off-colour. He told me he had just finished a telephone conversation with the army commander who had wanted answers to so many questions that, 'I am now in orbit.' His mastery of detail was fantastic and, as I was to learn later, he could quote an answer given verbally or in writing months previously to correct someone who was saying something else. A battalion employed in the Mizo Hills, paying perhaps a little more attention to the welfare of its troops and, in the process, a little less than desirable to the operational side received a rude reminder that 'someone up there' was watching, very keenly, every move that was made. A parcel of bangles was delivered to the Commanding Officer with the compliments of the Army Commander with a cryptic note: "If you are avoiding contact with the hostile give these to your men to wear." Needless to say, the next few weeks saw a flurry of activity by this battalion resulting in another, more soothing message: "Send the bangles back."

He was officiating as Army Chief in 1967 when the Chinese had their first clash with the Indian Army since 1962. This occurred at the 14,000 foot high pass, Natu La, in Sikkim where the Chinese learnt to their cost that the Indian Army of 1967 was a different kettle of fish from that of 1962. He was summoned to a meeting of the Cabinet where, as he recalled later, everyone present at the meeting was vying with the others to present to the Prime Minister his grasp of the situation and offering one suggestion after another as to what should be done. After hearing most of the speakers, the Prime Minister enquired whether the officiating army chief, until then a silent spectator, had something to say. "I am afraid they are enacting Hamlet without the Prince," he said. "I will now tell you exactly what has happened, and how I intend to deal with the situation." He then proceeded to do so.

Bengal in those days was a very troubled state where anarchy was prevalent, and law and order was almost on the way out. Sam was traveling to Dum Dum airport, Calcutta, once when he found the road blocked for traffic by a huge crowd being harangued by one person. The outrider and the staff officer accompanying him both advised a detour, but this would have meant running away and would have been noticed by the locals. So he got out of his staff car instead, and started walking up to the speaker who, he discovered to his disquiet as he approached, was a 'huge fellow, well over six feet tall.' Anyway, hiding his mounting uneasiness, he put his hand out and announced, "I am Sam Manekshaw." This unsettled the other person somewhat as he had probably anticipated an argument. He too, put his hand out and mumbled his name. He was then asked to clear the road, as otherwise "I shall miss my plane." The speaker, by now completely confused, hastened to obey, and the last glimpse the Army Commander had of his latest acquaintance was of that worthy helping to clear the road.

By then Sam Manekshaw had become one of the most popular and well-known officers in the Indian Army. Stories of the many admirable qualities he possessed and did not hesitate to display were legion. Always an unconventional dresser, he once met Lieutenant General Kulwant Singh, at that time commanding Western Army and an awe-inspiring man, in a jacket that could best he described as a cross between a regulation shirt and bush shirt. When the Army Commander pointed this out he was asked: "Have you come to see my formation or my dress?" While he could stand up to his superiors, he always stood by his subordinates. Service with him, it was rumoured, was certain to bring rewards in its wake. But, helpful as he was, he never consciously helped a subordinate at the cost of someone else. In other words, 'No throat was cut.' I once asked him if he was aware of the jealousy his so-called favourites aroused among others. He replied he was aware of this but as his 'favourites' were all competent officers he defied anyone to point a finger at them as far as their professional competence was concerned. On another occasion I asked him why he could not 'see through' the slick types who fawned and flattered him, and why he acceded to their requests. "Oh, I see through them all right," he replied. "I detest them, but I make use of them."

He was human and approachable to a fault. Once, so a story goes, while he was a Corps Commander, a junior officer on his staff asked for some leave, and the request was turned down by the officer's immediate superior. The officer then tried the indirect approach and made his problem known to the Corps Commander who called the man's immediate superior the next day and said, 'Look, I have had a letter from this youngster's father asking that the boy be sent on a spot of leave as there is some family problem to sort out. I am sure we can spare the bugger for a few days, let him go, we won't miss him.' The officer got his leave; no feathers were ruffled and everyone was happy, which brings us to his next great quality, the ability to run a very happy and contented team. His professional qualities ensured that the team was also a competent one. He was believed to finish his own work in an hour and spend the remainder of the time walking from one office to another, sitting down with the harried junior staff and helping them sort out the problems they were working on.

They said he never raised his voice, but even a mild reproving look from him with a 'Sweetheart, this won't do,' was enough to shake the stoutest heart. Sharply critical, but always constructively so, there was nothing his eye ever missed or his fantastically retentive memory ever forgot. He forgave easily, being basically a kind man. While he was Chief of the Army Staff, at an 'at Home' he attended in Rashtrapati Bhavan, as the guests came out into the Mughal Gardens he found himself walking beside Mr V K Krishna Menon, of whom mention has been made earlier. Polite to a fault, he wished Mr Menon the time of day and also enquired how the latter was progressing health-wise. He then turned to Mrs Manekshaw, who was also walking in line, and asked her: "Darling, you remember, Mr Menon?" Mrs Manekshaw, not quite as forgiving as her spouse, at least on this occasion, replied brusquely: "No, I don't."

Larsen & Toubro

2008-06-14T12:39:00.002+05:30

Larsen & Toubro Limited is the biggest legacy of two Danish Engineers, who built a world-class organization that is professionally managed and a leader in India's engineering and construction industry. It was the business of cement that brought the young Mr.Henning Holck-Larsen and Mr.S.K. Toubro into India. They arrived on Indian shores as representatives of the Danish engineering firm F L Smidth & Co in connection with the merger of cement companies that later grouped into the Associated Cement Companies.

Together, Mr. Holck-Larsen and Mr. Toubro, founded the partnership firm of L&T in 1938, which was converted into a limited company on February 7, 1946. Today, this has metamorphosed into one of India's biggest success stories. The company has grown from humble origins to a large conglomerate spanning engineering and construction. Larsen & Toubro Limited (L&T) is India's largest engineering and construction conglomerate with additional interests in electricals, electronics and IT. A strong customer-focus approach and constant quest for top-class quality have enabled L&T to attain and sustain leadership over 6 decades.

Technological brilliance of Ancient India

2008-06-10T15:06:00.003+05:30

Health Science:

The Indian vision on health, Aswini Devatha concept – Food & Exercise, need of exercise, yoga Asanas, soorya namaskaram, effect of medicines, identification of drugs, pathyas and fasting, selected food, rest and upasana, ethics for doctors cause of illness, pathogenic organisms, precautions to be taken for good health, solar therapy, water therapy, yoga therapy, music therapy, Reiki, energy healing, the knowledge on surgery and surgical equipments, practicing surgery and explanations given by Maharishi Susrutha. Acharas – customs and rituals influencing health.

Mental Health Psychology:

Description of mind given in Upanishads, mental influence on health, influence of puranic and related stories in mind, mental development, and yoga. Influence of yama and niyama as mentioned by Patanjali, controlling the mind, dhyaana, food and mind, saatwic food, dreams, effect of manthras on mind, customs influencing the mental health and family relations.

Food Science:

Variety of Indian foods, balanced nutritious foods, natural traditional baby foods, the medicinal components usually added in foods – like asafetida, turmeric, spices etc. – advised food during illness, specialized cooking, roasting, fermenting, processing, preserving, etc done for variety of foods ands their science. Generation of specific flavors in foods by suitable modifying spices. The science of altering the foods during fasting on specific days. Opting for integrated balance foods through fasting and vrathaas, science of selecting variety foods based on seasons, importance of selecting cooking vessels – for getting micronutrients like iron, zinc, copper, silica, magnesium, sodium, potassium etc. - variety of vegetable and their significance in balanced healthy foods. Many more significant scientific observations can be made in a student carefully examine the Indian foods, Naturopathy, Vegetarian food.

Chemistry:

The ancient Indian knowledge on chemicals and the subject of Chemistry given in Rasaratna Samucchayam, Rasarnavam, Rasendra Choodamani, Rasa Ratnakaram etc and many similar books. These books are available in Sanskrit with English and Hindi translations. Sanskrit names of chemicals, details of setting up a laboratory, scientific temper, qualification of chemists, laboratory assistant, research scholars, properties of inorganic chemicals, and their used described by Nagarjuna centuries ago. Chemicals used for a various purposes as described in Bharadhvaja in Yantra Sarvaswa, Varahamihira in Bruhath Samhita and also by others in the above chemistry books.

Bio-pesticides:

Variety of plant products, neem, tulasi, clove, pepper, turmeric, tobacco, oils like sesame oil, cotton seed oil, castor oil etc are used as bio-pesticides and some as preservatives. Traditional methods of pest control are also available from old farmers.

Plant Drugs Pharmacology:

Active plant bio-chemicals, processing medicinal plants, etc. Understand as many plants as possible which are good sources of the bio-active principles. Variety of plants used for curing diseases like herbs, shrubs, creepers, grass, trees etc. The plant leaves, buds, flowers, stems, roots, latex etc. used for treating specific diseases. Single drug treatment.

Medicines and Medicinal Preparations - Plant Biochemistry:

The descriptions of inorganic chemicals used as medicines in ancient Indian Rasa Chikitsa books, their preparations, processing, and prevention. The plant products used as drugs, the raw drugs, their harvesting, drying, storage, mixing, drug formulation, decoction preparation etc. Variety of Ayurvedic drug formulation obtained by mixing many raw drugs. Knowledge on the preparation while drying, storing, heating roasting, boiling with water, concentration etc in all Ayurvedic preparations. Here we have to focus only on the knowledge existed and their scientific merits in the area of plant drugs.

Basic Plant Sciences Botany:

Detailed description given in Vrukshayurveda by Saarngadhra, Katyayana, Varahamihira, Parasara, and others. Plant growth, grafting, irrigation, use of manure, seeds preservation, phototropism, agricultural practices both basic and applied. Varity of the traditional knowledge still practiced in villages in production of agriculture commodities.

Fermentation Technology:

Fermentation of milk to curd and yoghurt, fruit juice, medicinal preparations of arishtas etc. Fermentation procedures followed in four major types liquors mentioned in Chanakya's Artha Saastra, the source of microorganisms, cultures, fermentation products mentioned in the Ayurvedic and Vrukshayurvedic books. Fermented rice based common solid foods like pancake, fermentation of traditional liquors from coconut and palm products.

Ancient Indian Mines:

Knowledge on the ancient Indian mines which were active during last three or more millennia, mines of the ores and minerals of copper, gold, zinc, lead and silver which were distributed throughout Rajasthan, Haryana, Bihar, Bengal, Gujarat, Karnataka, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh etc. The technology adopted for digging, mining, transportation, processing on the spot, provisions given for aeration, and lighting in mines etc. The present day scenes of ancient metallurgical sites.

Ancient Indian Knowledge in Metallurgy:

The production and purification of metals, use of flux and slag, temperature attained, technology for production and purification of metals like tin, copper, iron, silver, zinc, lead. An understanding of the chemical reactions accomplished like oxidation, reduction, slag formation, distillation of low boiling metals etc. The fine technology used for the large scale production of bronze, brass, panchaloha, bell metal, coin making metals and many alloys mentioned in chemistry books and also in the books like Channakya's Arthasaastra. Impressive metallic alloy preparation techniques mentioned in the Rasa books, Rasopanishad and Bharadvaajaa's writings. The mental ingots, sheets, plates etc of Indian origin excavated from other countries like Athens, Babylonia, Rome, and Egypt.

Iron making Technology:

Production of pig iron, cast iron, and wrought iron in ancient India. Delhi and Dhar iron pillar, forge welding, lamination, paint coating for preventing rusting. Making of swords, the Banaras and Kodumanal swords, carburization in iron instruments used in agriculture and surgery. Rust free preservation techniques adopted for iron, woortz steel. Large scale production of iron alloys, export of iron to European and Middle East countries etc.

Ceramics Science and Technology:

The top quality ceramic vessels, tiles, glazed vessels, beads, bricks etc produced in Harappa, Mohenjo-Daro, Lothal, Varanasi, Thakshasila, Kalibhangan, Hastinapura and many other north and south Indian archeological sites. Variety of coloring materials used for the ceramic vessels and decoration ceramic articles.

Glass Technology:

Industrial and Instrumental Glass Technology existed in India. Variety of multi colored glasses with different size, shape, appearance, and capacity produced in India. The glass beads, ornaments, plates, vessels made using variety of inorganic coloring materials like the oxides, carbonates, sulfates, phosphates etc of chromium, lead, copper, iron, nickel, calcium, and sodium. The non metallic compounds used as coloring materials. Technology introducing the golden and silver leaf plates in glass.

General Instruments used in Ancient India:

Descriptions of a variety of instruments are given in Bharadvaja's Yanthra Sarvaswa – only a part of this book is available now. The Vaimanika Saastra, Dvaantha Pramapaka Yanthra etc. the numbering systems with serial numbers of the components of instruments, alloy preparations, quality of lenses, prisms, glass plates, variety of Kithara Aloha – artificial metallic alloys having non metallic compounds also- dies used for molding the instrument parts and components, in required size and shape. The instruments used in astro0nomical calculations know under the title of Jyothir Yanthra.

Musical Instruments:

Variety of string instruments for music and dance performances, the metallic alloys used for the preparation of strings, wind instruments, the knowledge of sound waves, the membrane instruments, preparation and processing of the membranes for these musical instruments. The basic knowledge of sound in music. The granite music pillars known as Sangeetha Mandapa seen in ancient south Indian temples. Traditional Indian musical instruments like flute, idakka, mrudanga, chenda, thaala, naadaswara, veena, violin, harmonium and so on. The basic principles adopted in their making and use.

Surgical Instruments:

The surgical instruments known as Sastras and Yanthras numbering more than a hundred as mentioned in Susrutha Samhitha. The metals used for making these
instruments, their size, shape, and comparison with the modern instruments used for the purpose. Description of plastic surgery techniques. The instruments for kidney stone removal, stitching, cutting open etc.

Laboratory Equipments:

More than 35 types of ceramics and metallic equipments mentioned in Rasaratna Samuchaya for the use in chemical laboratories for the processes like distillation, sublimation, extraction, drying, heating, roasting, mixing, decanting etc. Generally known under the name of Yanthras made using specific quality clays.

Kilns, Furnaces, Mushas & Putas:

Variety of furnaces, Kilns, and crucibles used for the production of various metals and alloys. The temperature attained for oxidation, reduction, slag preparation, and distillation of variety of metals and correspondingly suitable selection of putas or furnaces. Heating materials and their proportions, heating time, flux used for removing the impurities in the metal processing, description of maha gajaputa, gajaputa, kukkuta puta, kapotha puta etc, and their preparations.

Painting Technology & Colorants:

The chemistry of paints used in Ajantha, Ellora and other cave temple paintings, mural paintings, the inorganic colors and paint products used for paintings, their preparation, mixing, applying on the preprocessed surfaces. Selecting and processing plant products used as paints. The preparation of inks for variety of applications mural paintings, oil paintings, preparation of painting beds, walls, canvass etc. as done in cave temples and walls.

Textile Technology:

Ancient Indian textile industry as mentioned in Chanakya's Artha Saastra, textiles produced using cotton, silk, wool, jute, and also incorporation of gold, silver, and lead metallic threads as boarders for the textiles. The famous Kancheepuram,textile dyes, leather colors, variety of coloring materials produced in different parts of India and method of application of the dyes.

Architecture & Civil Engineering:

The civil engineering skill demonstrated in the famous south Indian temples constructed by the kings of the Chola, Chera, Pandya, Hoysaalsa, Kakateeya, and Vijaya Nagara periods. The huge and tall entrances or gopurams of these temples. The mortars, cements used for the construction of these temples. The instruments used for measuring, maintaining the geometry of these structures. The granite, marble, latté rite stone cutting and polishing equipments and devises existed during that time. The transportation techniques adopted for the huge granite pieces. Construction of marble temples, palaces, and lake palaces of Rajasthan. The temples of Kancheepuram, Rameswaram, Chidambaram, Kumbhakonam, Thiruvannamali, Sucheendram, Trivandrum, Konarak, and Khajuraho. The music pillars and music mandapas, the knowledge on the sound waves produced by these granite pillars and granite stone carvings – thick, thin, pointed and so on. The carvings undertaken with top precision in all the above structures. The construction of cave temples of Ajantha, Ellora, Elephanta, and the knowledge on geological aspects of rocks in which the Chaityaas and Viharas were carved out. Huge palaces constructed particularly like Jaisalamar palace, palaces in the pink city of Rajasthan, Gwalior, Mysore, Hyderabad etc. The air conditioning or temperature maintaining mechanisms adopted glazed and non glazed tiles and glasses used for flooring and windows. The ponds and water reservoirs made thousands of years ago. Try to learn as many structures constructed as possible and their technologies. The civil engineering sciences and technologies of forts and walls, channels, rivers etc. the archeologically important sites of Mohenjo-Daro, Lothal, Harappa, Dwaraka, the lost city of Cambay etc.

Physics in Ancient India:

The velocity of light, wave nature of sound, seven colors of light, Heisenberg's uncertainty principles, definition and explanation of atoms, gravitational forces, different types of rays like UV, IR, Heat rays, visible rays – as explained by Bharadvaja. Lenses, prisms, magnetic materials like iron and variety of magnets, time, weights, and measures, linear parameters. List the Ancient observations which are equivalent to modern scientific principles.

Mathematics & Astronomy:

Detailed knowledge in mathematics is given in the books written by Aryabhatta I, Aryabhatta III, Bhaskara I, Bhaskara II, Vateswara, Manjula, Lalla, Varahamihira, Parameswara, Sankaranarayana, and many other mathematicians. The four number systems – Sanskrit number, Aryabhatta number, Bhootha Sankya and Katapayaadi number. Progressions, various geometrical parameters connected with area, perimeter, volume of squares, triangles, circles, trapeziums, spheres, cones, cyclic quadrilaterals, polygonals, detailed algebra, quadratic equations, monomial, and binomial theorems etc. hundreds of theorems developed by Aryabhatta, Bhaskara, Sankaranarayana, Sangamagrama Madhavacharya, Puthumana Somayaji, Vateswara, Aryabhatta II, Sankara Varman, Paramewaracharya. The application of ka ta pa yaasi number and Bhootha Sankhya systems made by the above mathematicians. Sine, Cosine, and Tangent, Rsine values and their tables, method of determining these values, angles in degrees and radians, calculations and theorems connected with these values. Relation among radius-arc-chord- circumference-sine-cosine-tangent-angles etc.

Astronomical Parameters:

Various astronomical parameters mentioned in ancient Indian books. The spherical shape, size, diameter, circumference, gravity, declination, rotation speed, revolution, latitude, longitude, parallax in latitude and longitude, earthsine etc. of earth. many mote astronomical parameters described with definition by Vateswaracharya, like co-latitude, prime meridian and its relation with time, sunrise and sunset, eight type of revolutions of planets, visibility of planets, declination, precision equinox, alpha Aeries point, apogee, perigee, solar and lunar eclipse, calculation of eclipse diameter of shadow and movement of shadow, instruments used for time calculation and also for the calculation of various astronomical parameters know as Yanthras.

Indian Management Science:

Management principles explained by Chanakya in Chanakya Neetisara, Bharthru Hari in Upadesa Sathaka, Vidura in Vidura Neetisara, Bhishma in Bhishmopadesa and other books like Yoga Vaasishta, Bhagavath Geetha, Sukra Neetisara, Subhashitams mentioned in Panchathantra, Ramayana, Mahabharata, Thirukkural etc.

Economics in Ancient India:

The book of Artha Saastra written by Chanakya, also known as Koutileeyam, which is the book of ancient Indian Economics. There are many books mentioned in Artha Saastra like books of Saastras and Smruthies dealing with subjects like money, budget, banking, interest, loans, compound interest, penal interest, surety, witness, documents for loans, pledging of materials, leasing etc. The detailed method of implementing sales tax, agricultural tax, property tax, gift tax, land tax, house tax, customs duty, and penal taxes etc as described in Dharma Saastra.

Indian Philosophy:

The philosophical compilations known as Darsanas by Vyaasa, Jaiminee, Pathanjali, Gouthama, Kapila, and Kanaada – poorva & uttara Meemamsa, Yoga, Nyaaya,
Vaiseshikaa are the most important books known as Shad Darsanas. Many fundamental principals of physics, chemistry, biology etc are mentioned in the above Darsanas. Adi Sankara's Adwaitha and Madhava's Dwaitha. The book of Charvaka known as Charvaka Samhitha of atheism. Other than the specific philosophical compilations, the philosophy described in Upanishad, Bhaghavat Geetha, Yogavasishta etc.

Dharmic way of Life Style:

The unique Indian life style. The self imposed duties and responsibilities including privileges coming under Dharma Saastra. The Dharmas or duties of each family member know as Prithu-father, Mathru-mother, Putra-son, Putri-daughter, Pathnee-wife, Bhartru-husband Dharmas. Similarly Dharma of a teacher, village head, king, queen, four Purushaarthaas – Dharma, Artha, Kama, and Moksha, four Aasramas – Brahmacharya, Gruhasta, Sanyaasa and Vaanaprastha, selection of jobs or professions and specialization based on Varnas.

Be a proud Indian

Congo spotlight on India and Pakistan

2008-04-29T11:39:00.001+05:30

A BBC investigation into United Nations peacekeepers in the Democratic Republic of Congo has put the spotlight on Indian troops for the first time, and revived questions about Pakistani troops there.

Much of the report is based on confidential UN documents.

Concerns were first raised within the UN about Indian troop activities in eastern DR Congo in July, 2007.

After discussions between the UN and India, it was agreed that a UN investigation team would "determine whether the allegations are credible and require full investigation by India and the United Nations".

That team identified five areas involving Indian troops in which a UN report says allegations have been "corroborated":

The illegal purchase of gold from rebels of the FDLR - the former Rwandan army that fled to Congo following their involvement in the Rwanda genocide of 1994

The use of a UN helicopter to fly into the Virunga national park, to exchange ammunition for ivory with the rebels

The exchanging with the rebels of UN rations for gold

The buying of drugs from the rebels
The failure to support the disarmament of this rebel group.

'Trivial'

It says there is sufficient evidence to take action against three named Indian peacekeepers over attempts to trade in gold (some of which turned out to be counterfeit) and the unlawful detention of one of the traders.

It says that there is insufficient evidence to act against Indian peacekeepers over the other allegations.

The memo, from the UN's Vladislav Guerassev, says the allegations "may have the potential to damage the reputation of the Indian military and the United Nations".

Therefore it says the Indian authorities "may wish to consider other avenues of inquiry, which fall outside the purviews of the (UN's Investigation Division) investigations."

In response to the allegations the Indian High Commission in London told the BBC that the allegations over trading in gold were a "trivial case" and that the three soldiers concerned were being investigated by the UN's Office of Internal Oversight Services (OIOS).

If found guilty, they would face disciplinary action, the High Commission said.

It also said that the OIOS "has affirmed that there is no evidence of any other allegation against the Indian troops in DR Congo" including the allegations of "the arming of a militia".

'Alienating Pakistan'

The BBC first reported into allegations of corrupt practices by Pakistani peacekeepers in the DR Congo last year. These took place in a different area of eastern Congo to the activities of the Indian troops.

Now the BBC has found evidence that a UN enquiry into what took place in the gold mining town of Mongbwalu appears to have been blocked for political reasons.

Those close to this investigation told us that elements of the investigation were suppressed for fear of alienating Pakistan, which is the largest troop contributing country to the UN.

When the BBC last year published the first allegations that Pakistan peacekeepers had illegally traded in gold, as well as providing weapons to some of Congo's most notorious militia, the FNI, the reaction of the Pakistani authorities was one of denial.

In May 2007 the military spokesman at the time, Maj Gen Waheed Arshad, said the reports were "not only malicious but misleading and distorted" and without evidence.

Hard to believe

The UN's own report, dated 2 July 2007, which it has never published, concludes that the Pakistani contingent in Mongbwalu did indeed trade in gold with a group of Indian traders based in East Africa.

The UN goes on to hold just one Pakistani army officer responsible for what took place. It is hard to believe that one single officer, based in an isolated Congolese village, could organise a trade involving an estimated $7m in gold passing through four countries, but that was the UN's conclusion.

On the question of re-arming the FNI militia the UN report, which removed the names of those involved, was unequivocal: "In the absence of corroborative evidence, (the UN's Investigation Division) could not substantiate the allegation that (Pakistani peacekeepers) deployed to Mongbwalu had supplied weapons or ammunition" to FNI fighters.

Travelling back to eastern Congo the BBC has now found evidence the UN says it was unable to discover.

We interviewed several residents of the town, who told us they had seen FNI militia who were disarmed one day, in the town the next day with the same weapons.

We spoke to a man whose family members died fighting for the FNI.

"The FNI commanders - these were Dragon Masasi and Kung Fu Nyinga - took a vehicle to meet and negotiate with one of the Pakistani officers," he said.

"They went in and came back with seven boxes of ammunition. After receiving these boxes, all the militia - including my young brothers - took their arms to go and attack the Congolese army."

We also went into the maximum security prison in the capital, Kinshasa, to interview the two FNI leaders named above.

Kung Fu - real name General Mateso Ninga - was clear about what had taken place. "Yes, its true, " he said. "They did give us arms. They said it was for the security of the country. So they said to us that we would help them take care of the zone."

'Thirst for gold'

In fact the UN had compelling evidence of its own, which it failed to refer to in its report. This was the testimony of a Congolese army officer involved in the disarmament process.

He told the investigators during three interviews that he had repeatedly seen militia disarmed, yet had seen them with the same arms soon thereafter.

Asked why this was he put it down to what he called the "thirst for gold" on the part of one of the Pakistani officers.

Unofficially UN officials now accept that the trade in gold and the re-arming of the FNI militia did, indeed, take place.

And one Pakistani officer is reported to have been disciplined. The UN's Department of Peacekeeping Operations says it has been sending Pakistan "notes verbal" since last year in an attempt to discover what disciplinary measures these were, but has received no reply.

In response to the latest BBC report, the current Pakistani military spokesman, Maj Gen Athar Abbas, said the BBC was showing a "biased attitude towards Pakistan".

Maj Gen Abbas said there was "no evidence" of Pakistani troop involvement in the illegal exploitation of gold or the rearming of a militia. "One needs to ask what interests Pakistan peacekeepers could have in doing that" he said.

He also argued that the BBC was wrong to rely on the evidence of Mateso Ninga, a "criminal in the prison".

He also denied that the UN had been prevented from investigating the allegations.

Story from BBC NEWS

'Brain gain' for India as elite return

2008-04-20T11:50:00.000+05:30

Ashutosh Gupta's home in Richmond Park has all the lifestyle comforts that many educated Indians of his generation left India to attain - lush and peaceful gardens, a gym, a pool and, most important, unwavering electricity and water supplies.

This luxury block in the ultra-modern Delhi suburb of Gurgaon houses several hundred Indian families who have recently returned from living in the West, part of a 'reverse brain drain' migration which is gathering speed.

Indian politicians are beginning to highlight, approvingly, the emerging phenomenon of 'brain gain', as large numbers of Indian-born executives decide that job opportunities and living conditions are as good, if not better, in India and make their way home.

Gupta, 38, moved to this gated enclave after 15 years spent studying and later working as a Goldman Sachs banker in New York and London. 'Ten years ago, if I had considered moving back, people would have questioned my sanity, and assumed I couldn't hack it in the US,' he said. 'Now everyone recognizes that India is a very exciting place. There are tens of thousands of people like me making the decision to return.'

A survey published last week showed that graduates from India's most prestigious universities, the Indian Institutes of Technology (known as IITs), increasingly see India as the best place in the world to base themselves. Until about five years ago large numbers of these elite graduates would abandon home at the first opportunity to take up well-paid jobs or to continue their education in the US and Europe.

Between 1964 and 2001 (when the economy was sluggish), 35 per cent of the nation's most promising graduates moved abroad, according to research conducted by the Delhi-based organization, Evalueserve, but from 2002 onwards (the period when India's GDP began to soar) only 16 per cent chose to leave. Now, the research suggests, the West no longer seems synonymous with wealth and opportunity. Asked to predict which country would 'hold the most promise for success' in 10 years' time, 72 per cent of the 677 IIT graduates surveyed named India, with only 17 per cent citing the US, 5 per cent Europe, and just 2 per cent China. The number who feel the US offers a better standard of living than India has fallen since 2001 from 13 per cent to almost zero. The study is a clear sign that the lamented flight of India's best students, which has troubled the government for decades, may be reversing, in tandem with the turnaround in economic prospects.

The Indian government does not compile figures of the numbers of people emigrating or returning, but Alok Aggarwal, chairman of Evalueserve, who wrote the report, said the trend of returning Indians 'seemed to be very strong'. The pull of the West remained powerful for many Indians, he said, 'but at the very top level of graduates, the smart choice now is to stay'. The flow of reverse migration has been particularly striking in the southern Indian IT city of Bangalore, where research published last year estimated that more than 40,000 Indian technology professionals had arrived back from the US and the UK to take up work.

Aggarwal, now 48, left India after graduating from an IIT in the 1980s and moved to the US. 'There was a lot of guilt associated with the decision to leave. We felt like rats leaving a sinking ship. But at the time there were few employment opportunities here,' he said. In the late 1980s Delhi did not seem a very alluring place to return to; even getting a phone line installed involved a wait of about two and a half years.

Now the decision to choose India is much easier. Jobs are plentiful and, armed with good salaries, the newly returned can cocoon themselves in gated Western-style ghettoes, which shut out any trace of the ever-present slums, squalor and poverty. The golf clubs of Delhi and neighboring Gurgaon are full of recently returned Indians.

Gupta said his switch to a private equity job in Delhi was partly motivated by a desire to spend more time with his parents, and partly down to his sense that he could do much more with his talents in India, than he could in London. 'I would sit at my desk on Fleet Street, read about what was happening in India and I'd ask myself: What am I doing here? It was an obvious choice to return.' But the transition was painful. 'After so many years away, it was a shock to be back. The traffic, the chaos, it all takes a bit of adjustment.' But living alongside hundreds of other 'like-minded returnees' had helped to dull the culture shock.

Yusuf Hatia, India vice-president of the public relations firm Fleishman-Hillard, was conscious that his decision to return to live in Mumbai a year ago, with his wife and young son, was a peculiar mirror of his parents' choice to emigrate to the UK, when he was aged three, in 1975. 'My parents left India for the UK for economic reasons, and because they believed that they could give me a better education there,' he said, adding that the same reasons - the appeal of good schools, better lifestyle, and well-paid and interesting work - had persuaded him to move back. His shift from Hackney to India's business capital has afforded him a full-time nanny, a driver and private education for his son 'without any of it seeming a ridiculous luxury'. The cost of renting an apartment (about £5,000 a month, and rising) was an unexpected shock.

'A lot of my family who are of Indian origin, living in Britain, thought I was pretty crazy. They still see India as a place to escape from, a place of poverty, not somewhere to come and do business,' he said. 'Of course, India is still a place of poverty, but in the business world there is an extraordinary sense of optimism. The long term prospects for working here are better.'

Rising fortunes

· Once an unsuccessful 'mixed' economy, India opened up to foreign investment in the 1990s

· In the 1980s, 75 per cent of its top graduates emigrated to America

· Since 2000 only 28 per cent see themselves leaving

· Poverty rate has halved in 20 years

· Between 1990 and 2004 adult literacy rose from 50 to 61 per cent

· Population: 1,147,995, 898. Expected to overtake China as the world's most populous country in the next 25 years

· GDP stands at $1.09 trillion

Indian Army’s corruption blues

2008-04-14T11:19:00.000+05:30

The saga of corruption in the Indian Army seems unending much like the Indian TV soaps. With the involvement of some senior army officers in bribery and arms-purchase scandals, this belief is getting strengthened that corruption is deeply embedded in the everyday functioning of Indian Army. Nine months after an Indian Army major general was cashiered for corruption, the Indian Army has ordered a general court martial of two brigadiers on charges of fraud for diverting public funds with malafide intentions of personal gains. According to the media report, the two officers, Brigadiers G Illangovan and DS Grewal, during their postings in Uttarakhand, are said to have misappropriated government funds allotted from their division headquarters. Depending on the extent of crime the court establishes (which began the trial in Jabalpur on 25 June 2007) the two could be stripped of rank and denied all retirement benefits. They may also face up to 14 years of rigorous imprisonment:
The Defence Minister AX Antony has presented in parliament a long list of senior officers facing corruption charges which shows that action had been taken against 39 corrupt officers of the Indian Army. Last September, Major General Singh was also stripped of his rank and sentenced to three years of rigorous imprisonment for selling subsidized army liquor and misappropriating funds.

An alarming rise in the number of Indian military officers charged with corruption, senior ranks quitting due to frustrating service conditions and instances in which disgruntled soldiers have shot dead their seniors has started boggling the minds of India’s policy makers. For the past few decades, the Indian Army has experienced high-profile scandals, ranging from the infamous field-artillery deal with the Swedish arms company Bofors (for which former Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi had been accused) to the case for which another former prime minister, P.V. Narasimha Rao, was convicted in 2000. This is a sufficient proof of the fact that the Indian society as a whole is a moral wasteland, From everyday experience, Indians know that acquiring a job, a place in medical or engineering school, or even a telephone, gas or electricity connection frequently entails a bribe to someone who is controlling the affairs in that setup.

Amongst the foremost corrupt institutions within India, its armed forces rank a prominent position. The Indian army personnel are known to receive “commission” from politicians, bureaucrats and businessmen. When their cases are forwarded to court of inquiry, they usually manage to slip away unpunished. The corruption report published in the Times of India speaks volumes for the state of indiscipline and corruption in the Indian Armed forces. The crime rate within the Armed Forces is comparatively high in areas where the Indian army is deployed in order to suppress insurgencies and secessionist movements like Kashmir, Nagaland, Mezoram and Assam. Incidents of suicide, self-immolation, opening fire on commanding officers and colleagues, desertions etc are frequent. The crimes are not only committed by jawans, but also the senior officers are found involved in minting money through unfair means. So much so a Brigadier of Indian army has recently been sentenced to seven years imprisonment for his involvement in running fake currency notes business.
The Indian Army’s Central Command has initiated a court of inquiry against Major General G I Singh, General Officer Commanding of the 6th Mountain Division, to probe into the case of misappropriation of money and sale of illicit liquor. According to reports, four truckloads of army liquor, which were to be sold off illegally at Singh’s behest, were seized from Dehradun. The trucks were heading for Sangrur in Punjab (the hometown of the accused). The consignment was ostensibly sent to his hometown for sale. The reports have unfolded some more scandals in the Held Kashmir. Tanker owners in the valley have said that a scam to steal army diesel fuel involved Indian military officers and had been going on for years. The IHK Petrol Tank Owners Association says “the scam involves drivers, officers and middlemen and has cost hundreds of millions of rupees to the Government of India. It was found that diesel in seven tankers bound for Ladakh had been sold off and replaced with water. According to a report published in the Times of India on October 3, 2005 the Indian Armed Forces have held 6,000 court martials since 2000, and that by any standards is a disturbing picture for the Indian Armed forces.

According to the latest statistics of the Army discipline, 1,215 Indian soldiers were court-martialed in 2000, 1,034 in 2001, 1,031 in 2002, 945 in 2003, and 872 in 2004. Last year, around 30 officers were convicted in court martial proceedings. Because of the deteriorating service conditions, the charisma of army is diminishing with each passing day.

There is no rush of youths to join the once-favoured military, and the persisting shortage of officers in the 1.1-millionstrong army is now around 11,000. Standards of armed forces have gone from bad to worse. It is because of a deep seated cancer of bribery and corruption that Indian Army faces a severe crisis of discipline, confidence and self esteem today.

The 10 biggest falls of the Sensex

2008-03-23T17:21:00.001+05:30

The Bombay Stock Exchange benchmark Sensex sank by 951 points on black Monday March 17, 2008, on panic selling by funds, triggered by weak global cues. Similarly, the wide-based National Stock Exchange's index Nifty dropped by 243 points to 4,503.

The government meanwhile said that Indian stock markets are taking cues from the United States and Asian markets, even though the sub-prime mortgage crisis has only moderately impacted the credit and financial flows into the country.

The 10 largest falls of the Sensex

1. Jan 21, 2008 --- - 1,408.35 points

2. Mar 17, 2008 --- - 951.03 points

3. Mar 3, 2008 ---- - 900.84

4. Jan 22, 2008 --- - 875.41 points

5. Feb 11, 2008 --- - 833.98 points

6. May 18, 2006 --- - 826.38 points

7. Mar 13, 2008 --- - 770.63 points

8. Dec 17, 2007 --- - 769.48 points

9. Oct 17, 2007 --- - 717.43 points

10. Jan 18, 2007 --- - 687.82 points

"The sub-prime mortgage market crisis will not directly affect us, because except one private sector bank, which has made its exposure, none of our public sector banks has any exposure to sub-prime mortgage market," Finance Minister P Chidambaram said in his reply to a debate on the Budget 2008-09 in Rajya Sabha.

"But, when crisis moved from sub-prime mortgage market to housing market, and now housing market to the credit market, there is impact upon India. There is impact in terms of credit flows and financial flows. But, at the moment, I believe that impact is second order impact and a moderate impact," he said.

As regards the stock markets, they take cues from developments in the US and Asian markets, he added. "In fact, we now have to track what is happening in Asian markets. Hong Kong, Tokyo and Shanghai open before Indian market opens, and if you watch closely, you will find what is happening in Asian markets is impacting the Indian stock market," he said.

How Chindia will impact the world economy !!

2008-02-12T20:24:00.000+05:30

Among the large emerging economies such as Brazil, Russia, Nigeria and Indonesia, it is the rise of China and India (Ch-india) which will have (and already has) enormous business implications during the first half of this Century mostly beneficial to the world.

First, both nations will require enormous natural resources because not only are they manufacturing and service centers of the world, but because of their own rapidly expanding domestic consumer markets. And this demand for natural and industrial resources such as oil, gas, coal, copper, bauxite, aluminum, iron and steel will be for many years.

While China today is roughly nine times as big as India, it is expected that China will very soon become an aged and affluent nation, similar to what happened to Japan, Singapore, Taiwan and others and will begin to plateau its economic growth. Also, it will outsource manufacturing to other nations, especially in Africa and other resource rich nations.

The rapid aging of Chinese population attributed to its one child policy implemented over two generations will impact its domestic economic growth. On the other hand, while India is at present one tenth in size of China, it will experience accelerated growth in less than ten years with better infrastructure, political reforms and financial transparency.

Also, India will refocus on manufacturing both for global supply as well as for its domestic demand. Unlike China, however, India's manufacturing will be selective and largely concentrated on high-end aerospace, military, space and consumer durables including automobiles and appliances. It will begin to catch up with China and some experts even believe that its growth rate will surpass that of China. In any case, both nations with more than a billion people each, will have enormous need for industrial, agricultural and other natural resources and raw materials.

Since a vast majority of these untapped resources are in other dormant or emerging economies in Africa, Caribbean, Latin America, Central Asia and Russia, the rise of Chindia will create economic boom for them which otherwise did not happen for nearly 200 years of colonial rule.

Second, the global integration of China and India will be radically different. India's economy and enterprises will be globally integrated especially with other advanced countries (Europe, US, Canada, UK, Australia, Singapore, Japan, South Korea) through large scale acquisitions of well established and well respected foreign companies with technology, branding and manufacturing assets.

The journey has already begun with Mittal Steel's acquisition of Arcelor, Tata Steel's acquisition of Corus Steel, and Hindalo's acquisition of Novelis (largest North American sheet aluminum company). And it will not be limited to industrial raw materials and to private enterprises of India. For example, several large public sector units (PSUs) of India such as ONGC (Oil and Natural Gas Corporation), Indian oil and SBI (State Bank of India), who have the domestic scale and capital reserve, are starting to fl ex their acquisition muscles. Similarly,

Wipro, an information technology (IT), engineering services, as well as consumer products company, has recently made several worldwide acquisitions (including Infocrossing, a data center company in the US, and Unza, a personal care consumer products company in Singapore).

Finally, Ranbaxy and Dr. Reddy's have become significant players in the global pharma industry largely through acquisitions. So have Mafatlal and Raymonds in fashion and garments. In other words, India will contribute to global growth as much, if not more, through revitalizing and investing in Western assets as it would through growth of its domestic consumer markets.

On the other hand, China's growth will be proportionately more domestic and only on a selective basis through global acquisitions. This is due to several reasons. First, China has begun to focus on domestic demand especially in consumer markets such as consumer electronics, appliances, automobiles and financial services. It has the physical infrastructure as well as large scale domestic state-owned enterprises such as Haier, Lenovo, China Mobil, Petro China and China Development Bank to capitalize on domestic demand.

Second, the advanced world seems less willing to sell their assets to China (especially technology assets) due to what I believe are myopic misperceptions about the peaceful rise of China (in contrast to rise of India).

For example, Chinese oil company, CNOOC's attempt to buy Unocal as well as Haier's (the largest Chinese appliance company) attempt to buy Maytag Company in the US, met with political resistance. The obvious exception is IBM's sale of its personal computer (PC) business to Lenovo. But it is more an exception.

Consequently, Chinese enterprises that have the scale and incumbency advantage to dominate the domestic Chinese markets will end up expanding globally by first going to other emerging economies such as countries in Africa, Caribbean, Latin American and the ASEAN as well as in Central Asia and India, both through trade as well as foreign direct investment (FDI). In addition, despite history and current uneasiness of rise of China, it is inevitable that both Japan and South Korea will quickly integrate their economies with China, just as what Taiwan has already done.

This will result in rapid growth in bilateral trade as well as reciprocal foreign direct investment between China and Japan and China and South Korea. Consequently, the largest trading bloc will be Asia especially with free trade with India. This will require formation of a new currency comparable to the Euro; and it will become the dominant currency of the world similar to the rise of the dollar as a global currency after World War I.

While the global integration paths taken by China and India will be different, their impact on businesses worldwide either as suppliers, customers, partners or competitors will be benefi cial and enormous. In fact, it is no exaggeration to state that the future survival of most admired enterprises from all advanced economies including the United States, Canada, Europe, Australia, Japan, and South Korea will depend on how quickly they participate in ensuing rise of China and India even if they have to distance from their own government's politics and public opinion.

This includes companies such as General Electric, HSBC, Mercedes Benz, Siemens, Alcatel and many others.

Is a US slowdown good for Indian markets?

2008-02-11T11:45:00.000+05:30

January has turned out to be the cruellest month for the Indian stock markets. A news report I came across claimed that it was the markets' worst start to a year in the last 28 years.

From its peak of 21,207 on January 10, the Sensex has lost about 16 per cent as I write. Foreign institutional investors have pulled out about $3.2 billion over the month.

This sudden bearishness is underpinned by a number of changes in the market dynamic. The most critical, in my opinion, is the de-linking of the local market from US interest rates.

Until recently, declines in US rates invariably saw an uptick in Asian markets (including India) as fund-managers borrowed at cheaper rates and bought high-yielding Asian stocks.

However, this time the unprecedented a one-and-a-quarter percentage point cut in the US central bank's policy rate has failed to bring succour.

This reflects two things. First, there has been a rapid escalation in risk aversion, which has reduced the appetite for all risky asset classes, including emerging market stocks.

The best index of the reduction in risk-preference has been the yen-dollar rate, which has moved down from levels of over 120 in mid-2007 to current levels of about 106. I suggest that local stock market investors watch this rate very closely to get a sense of what the FIIs are likely to do.

Let me just elaborate on this a bit. The Japanese money market, with its exceptionally low interest rates, has been the principal funding currency ("carry currency") for higher-yielding assets across the world. With rising risk, investors sold risky assets and bought back the yen to pay off their yen loans. This led to a rapid appreciation of the Japanese currency. Only a significant depreciation of the yen would signal a change in risk appetite and the possible return of FIIs to our shores.

Second, investors are slowly pricing in dimmer growth and profit prospects for India as the US heads towards recession. Elevated valuations (at its peak the Sensex was trading at a price earning multiple of 22, using projected earnings for a year ahead) have not helped India's case.

The result has been fairly sharp and sustained sell-off by foreign funds. Domestic investors have been more optimistic about India's prospects. If they hadn't been around to support the market, the plunge would have been sharper.

I suspect that the negative sentiment towards Indian and other emerging equity markets will continue for a while. While the jury is still out on whether the US is already in a recession or not, the US Fed's somewhat panicky policy gestures seem to suggest that it is preparing for the worst.

That might, ironically, bring global funds back to America. Past recessions have shown that investors don't flee American shores in times of crisis. Instead, they start buying the safest of the safe assets, US treasury bonds, with a passion. The fact that the dollar has tended to appreciate against major currencies over most recessions reflects this flight to safety.

Indian stocks are likely to remain in the dumps for a while but I don't think it is the beginning of a prolonged bear market. While I have argued against the notion of decoupling -- the theory that business could go on as usual in Asia even if the US economy were to slide -- it is unlikely that economies like India or China will see a severe slowdown.

Thus company earnings growth could disappoint if the effects of the US slowdown spill over but it is unlikely that they will plummet. Stock prices may fall more but this will make stock valuations look increasingly attractive relative to growth prospects.

The US Fed's response to the apprehension of recession is to cut interest rates relentlessly. Other central banks might not match the Fed, cut for cut, but it's likely that they will pare rates to a degree.

Thus by the middle of the year or perhaps another quarter ahead, investors would be looking at significantly lower cost of borrowing leverage in most markets.

When investors get the first signal that the US economy is bottoming out (a couple of months of falling unemployment rates, for instance), their risk appetite will rise sharply.

Rising risk appetite and low borrowing costs can turn out to be a heady mix for markets like India where valuations have corrected and growth has, as I anticipate, sustained at fairly healthy levels.

In short, the Indian market might thus be one of the first to gain in the advent of resurgence in preference for risky assets.

When could this happen? The US Fed has taken a bit of flak for pandering to the whims of the financial markets. However, its strategy of cutting rates relentlessly is likely to buoy not just the financial markets but the real economy as well somewhat soon.

There are various channels through which lower rates could work. Adjustable rate mortgages, the bane of cash-strapped US households, could reset at significantly lower rates and set off benign income effects.

As risk-free treasury bond yields plummet, banks might just start to jettison their government bond holdings and start lending to the real sector instead. I will thus not be surprised if the US economy finds a bottom by the third quarter of 2008.

I am not suggesting that America's problems will disappear overnight in the third quarter. Problems could linger both in the financial markets and the real sector but one could just see the mix of data and news emerging from the US turning favourable. This could be the turning point for Indian equity markets.

Who’re Cong spin docs trying to fool ?

2007-12-14T12:19:00.000+05:30

SONIA Gandhi’s unabashed admirers are thrilled to bits with her hysterical invective — merchant of death — and are touting it as the body blow that could fell Narendra Modi. From Delhi’s balcony seats, they have termed her speech a defining statement in the Gujarat campaign.

Really? Congress leaders, who understand the electoral game slightly better that Delhi’s arm chair brigade seem to have a somewhat different opinion. Ms Gandhi made the speech at a time when Narendra Modi was testing waters about the electoral ace up his sleeve. Ignoring suggestions from his colleagues, Mr Modi had even concluded that he could confidently go ahead and seek a fresh mandate on the basis of his developmental track record alone.

Did the unsuspecting Sonia —- or her spin doctors, spech writers et al— walk into Modi’s trap? It would appear so and even Congressmen are kicking themselves in the shin that her intemperate remarks have brought the necesary distraction to enable Modi evade answering questions about the muchridiculed “laundry list” of development issues. Incidentally, the Congress’ campaign against Modi in the past five years was centred around his alleged bias towards big business and the well-off. Given this, those who don’t believe in ideological group-think see the speech of Ms Gandhi as a sign of her party’s desperation in the face of Mr Modi’s continued popularity, despite rebellion in the BJP’s ranks and the lack of ethusiasm in the RSS.

There is hushed acknowledgment in Congress circles now that Sonia’s attack on Modi will ultimately help the BJP. Her party was already on a slippery slope. By making the Gujarat riots — the violence that took the lives of 790 Muslims and 254 Hindus — the central theme of the political narrative, Sonia Gandhi instead of lending a hand, has given it a push.

Her charges being what they are, there are now demands that the Congress also start answering a few questions on the Centre’s record on tackling terrorism. The cold government statistics are thus: Islamic terrorists have killed 5,617 Indians in the last three years, but only one died in Gujarat. Thursday’s Dec 13th 2007 death toll is 8 — five in a train blast in the north east and murder of three policemen by Naxalites in Chattisgarh.

If the response of the Modi campaign is anything to go by, he has been successful in ramming in his party’s point that the government controlled by Sonia Gandhi at the Centre suffers from an utter lack of credibility when it comes to leading, supporting and respecting anti-terror initiatives. Barring the familar “never again” declarations after terror attacks, there has been little sign of the government stepping in to contain the menaces lurking at our doorsteps.

The anti-BJP brigade’s rhetorical hitman and the commentariat who draw their wisdom from 24X7 channels have been hectoring the voters to make Modi answerable to the Gujarat riots. This is a question that can easily be put to the presiding deities of Delhi. The Centre, which has investigating agencies at its command, is yet to file a single case against Modi, who is the target of the anti-BJP side’s vilification and scorn.

The mob that that screams its lungs out on behalf of the murderous Afzal Guru’s human rights is now licking its fingers in anticipation of Modi’s defeat. The Congress cannot afford to opt for this narrative. It’s easy to mock at the “laundry list of development issues”, but as Nitish Kumar and Mayawati have shown, these are saleable commodities that got them landslides. In any case, “merchants of death” formulation’s chutzpah will speak for itself on December 23.

Interesting Facts about India and Indians!

2007-12-01T15:58:00.000+05:30

38% of Doctors in America are Indians.

12% of Scientists in America are Indians.

36% of NASA employees are Indians.

34% of MICROSOFT employees are Indians

28% of IBM employees are Indians

17% of INTEL employees are Indians

13% of XEROX employees are Indians

(These facts were recently published in a German Magazine which deals with WORLD HISTORY)

More interesting Facts

India is the world's largest, oldest, continuous civilization

Varanasi, also known as Benares, was called "the ancient city" when Lord Buddha visited it in 500 B.C.E, and is the oldest, continuously inhabited city in the world today?

India never invaded any country in her last 10000 years of history.

India is the world's largest democracy.

Grammar constitutes one of India's greatest contributions to Western philology. Panini, the Sanskrit grammarian, who lived between 750 and 500 BC, was the first to compose formal grammar through his Astadhyai.

India invented the Number System. Zero was invented by Aryabhatta.

The World's first university was established in Takshashila in 700BC. More than 10,500 students from all over the world studied more than 60 subjects. The University of Nalanda built in the 4th century BC was one of the greatest achievements of ancient India in the field of education.

Sanskrit is the mother of all the European languages. Sanskrit is the most suitable language for computer software - a report in Forbes magazine, July 1987.

Ayurveda is the earliest school of medicine known to humans. Charaka, the father of medicine consolidated Ayurveda 2500 years ago. Today Ayurveda is fast regaining its rightful place in our civilization.

Although modern images of India often show poverty and lack of development, India was the richest country on earth until the time of British invasion in the early 17th Century. Christopher Columbus was attracted by India's wealth.

The art of Navigation was bornin the river Sindh 6000 years ago. The very word Navigation is derived from the Sanskrit word NAVGATIH. The word navy is also derived from Sanskrit 'Nou'.

Bhaskaracharya calculated the time taken by the earth to orbit the sun hundreds of years before the astronomer Smart. Time taken by earth to orbit the sun: (5th century) 365.258756484 days.

More facts about India

The value of "pi" was first calculated by Budhayana, and he explained the concept of what is known as the Pythagorean Theorem. He discovered this in the 6th century long before the European mathematicians.

Algebra, trigonometry and calculus came from India. Quadratic equations were by Sridharacharya in the 11th century. The largest numbers the Greeks and the Romans used were 106 whereas Hindus used numbers as big as 10**53(10 to the power of 53) with specific names as early as 5000 BCE during the Vedic period. Even today, the largest used number is Tera 10**12(10 to the power of 12).

India exports software to 90 countries?

According to the Gemological Institute of America, up until 1896, India was the only source for diamonds to the world.

USA based IEEE has proved what has been a century old suspicion in the world scientific community that the pioneer of wireless communication was Prof. Jagdish Bose and not Marconi.

The earliest reservoir and dam for irrigation was built in Saurashtra.

According to Saka King Rudradaman I of 150 CE a beautiful lake called 'Sudarshana' was constructed on the hills of Raivataka during Chandragupta Maurya's time.

Chess (Shataranja or AshtaPada) was invented in India..

Sushruta is the father of surgery. 2600 years ago he and health scientists of his time conducted complicated surgeries like cesareans, cataract, artificial limbs, fractures, urinary stones and even plastic surgery and brain surgery. Usage of anesthesia was well known in ancient India. Over 125 surgical equipment were used. Deep knowledge of anatomy, physiology, etiology, embryology, digestion, metabolism, genetics and immunity is also found in many texts.

When many cultures were only nomadic forest dwellers over 5000 years ago, Indians established Harappan culture in Sindhu Valley (Indus Valley Civilization)

The four religions born in India, Hinduism, Buddhism, Jainism, and Sikhism, are followed by 25% of the world's population?

Islam is India's and the world's second largest religion?

Jews and Christians have lived continuously in India since 200 B.C.E and 52 A.D respectively.

The Vishnu Temple in the city of Tirupathi built in the 10th century, is the world's largest religious pilgrimage destination, larger than either Rome or Mecca, with an average of 30,000 visitors every day giving donations to the temple of $6 million (U.S.) daily?

The place value system, the decimal system was developed in India in 100 BC.

The Co-founder of Sun Microsystems, Vinod Khosla, is Indian.

The head of the team that developed the Pentium co-processor, Vinod Dham, is Indian.

The founder and creator of Hotmail, the world's best-known web-based email program, Sabeer Bhatia, is Indian.

The testing Director of Windows 2000, Sanjay Tejwrika, is Indian.

Why Do Hindus Chant "Om"

2007-12-01T15:47:00.000+05:30

Om is one of the most chanted sound symbols in India.

It has a profound effect on the body and mind of the one who chants and also on the surroundings. Most mantras and vedic prayers start with om. All auspicious actions begin with om. It is even used as a greeting - om, Hari om etc. It is repeated as a mantra or meditated upon. Its form is worshipped, contemplated upon or used as an auspicious sign. Om is the universal name of the Lord. It is made up of the letters A (phonetically as in "around"), U (phonetically as in "put") and M (phonetically as in "mum"). The sound emerging from the vocal chords starts from the base of the throat as "A". With the coming together of the lips, "U" is formed and when the lips are closed, all sounds end in "M". The three letters symbolise the three states (waking, dream and deep sleep), the three deities (Brahma, Vishnu and Shiva),the three Vedas (Rig, Yajur and Sama) the three worlds (Bhuh, Bhuvah, Suvah) etc. The Lord is all these and beyond.

The formless, attributeless Lord (Brahman) is represented by the silence between two om Chants. Om is also called pranava that means "that (symbol or sound) by which the Lord is praised". The entire essence of the Vedas is enshrined in the word om. It is said that the Lord started creating the world after chanting om and atha. Hence its sound is consi dered to create an auspicious beginning for any task that we undertake. The om chant should have the resounding sound of a bell (aaooommm).

Om is written in different ways in different places. The most common form symbolises Lord Ganesha. The upper curve is the head; the lower large one, the stomach; the side one, the trunk; and the semi-circular mark with the dot, the sweet-meat ball (modaka) in Lord Ganesha's hand. Thus om symbolises everything - the means and the goal of life, the world and the Truth behind it, the material and the Sacred, all form and the Formless

The Wrath of Khan

2007-11-30T12:08:00.000+05:30

How A. Q. Khan made Pakistan a nuclear power—and showed that the spread of atomic weapons can't be stopped

Rawalpindi is a city of two million residents on the northern plains of the Punjab, in Pakistan. It is a teeming place, choked with smoke and overcrowded with people just barely getting by. A large number of them live hand to mouth on the equivalent of a few hundred dollars a year. Much of their drinking water comes from a lake in the peaceful countryside north of town. The lake is surrounded by tree-lined pastures and patches of sparse forest. The navy of Pakistan has a sailing club there, on a promontory with a cinder-block shack, a dock, and one small sloop in the water—a Laser 16 with dirty sails, which sees little use. Though fishermen and picnickers sometimes appear in the afternoons or evenings, the lakefront on both sides of the promontory is pristine and undeveloped. The emptiness is by design: though the land around the lake is privately owned, zoning laws strictly forbid construction there, in order to protect Rawalpindi's citizens from the contamination that would otherwise result. This seems only right. If Pakistan can do nothing else for its people, it can at least prevent the rich from draining their sewage into the water of the poor.

But Pakistan is a country corrupted to its core, and some years ago a large weekend house was built in blatant disregard of the law, about a mile from the navy's sailing club, clearly in sight on the lake's far shore. When ordinary people build illegal houses in Pakistan, the government's response is unambiguous and swift: backed by soldiers or the police, bulldozers come in and knock the structures down. But the builder of this house was none other than Dr. Abdul Quadeer Khan, the metallurgist who after a stint in Europe had returned to Pakistan in the mid-1970s with stolen designs, and over the years had provided the country—single-handedly, it was widely believed—with an arsenal of nuclear weapons. Though he worked in the realm of state secrets, Khan had become something of a demigod in Pakistan, with a public reputation second only to that of the nation's founder, Muhammad Ali Jinnah, and he had developed an ego to match. He was the head of a government facility named after him—the Khan Research Laboratories, or KRL—which had mastered the difficult process of producing highly enriched uranium, the fissionable material necessary for Pakistan's weapons, and was also involved in the design of the warheads and the missiles to deliver them. The enemy was India, where Khan, like most Pakistanis of his generation, had been born, and against which Pakistan has fought four losing wars since its birth, in 1947. India had the bomb, and now Pakistan did too. A. Q. Khan was seen to have assured the nation's survival, and indeed he probably has—up until the moment, someday in a conceivable future, when a nuclear exchange actually occurs.

In any case, by the time he built the house on the lake, he believed wholeheartedly in his own greatness. In his middle age he had become a fleshy, banquet-fed man, unused to criticism and outrageously self-satisfied. Accompanied by his security detail, he would go around Pakistan accepting awards and words of praise, passing out pictures of himself, and holding forth on diverse subjects—science, education, health, history, world politics, poetry, and (his favorite) the magnitude of his achievements. As befits such a benefactor, he would also give out money, of which he seemed to have an unlimited supply, despite the fact that he was a government official with a government official's salary and no other obvious means of wealth; he bought houses for his friends, funded scholarships, set up his own private charity, made large donations to mosques, and bestowed grants on Pakistani schools and institutions, many of which duly named themselves or their buildings after him. To understand Khan correctly—which to some degree is to understand the spread of nuclear arsenals beyond the traditional great powers—it is necessary to recognize that his largesse was not merely a matter of self-aggrandizement. He has been portrayed in the West as a twisted character, an evil scientist, a purveyor of death. He had certainly lost perspective on himself. But the truth is that he was a good husband and father and friend, and he gave large gifts because in essence he was an openhearted and charitable man.

As to why, therefore, he insisted on building a weekend house that drained into Rawalpindi's drinking water, the answer is indeed twisted, though in a standard Pakistani way: the attraction was not in the setting on the lake (there are prettier lakes nearby) but, rather, in the open defiance of the law—an opportunity for the display of personal power. In a country whose courts have been made captive, and whose most fundamental laws have been systematically ignored by corrupt civilian governments and successive military regimes, once wealth has been achieved there can be no more gratifying display of success than such a brazen act of illegality. Khan's house on the lake served as a barely coded message, and one that was universally understood by Pakistanis at the time. It was a public brag. People did not disapprove of Khan for what he had done. Even in Rawalpindi they tended rather to admire him for it. It remained illegal to build on the lake, and as a result, by twisted logic, the restricted property there became some of the most sought after in the region. A. Q. Khan had pioneered the ground. Within a few years other houses had been built near his, perhaps a dozen in all, and each for the same reason—because of the extraordinary influence it took to get away with such a public crime. Some of the builders were generals. Some were Khan's associates from the secret laboratory. All of them derived additional glory from their proximity to the beloved Khan.

Then for Khan, in January of 2004, the good life came crashing down. He was sixty-eight at the time. U.S. agents had intercepted a German ship named the BBC China carrying parts for a Libyan nuclear-weapons-production program, and Libya, in subsequently renouncing its nuclear ambitions, had named Pakistan, and particularly the Khan Research Laboratories, as the supplier of what was to be a complete store-bought nuclear-weapons program. The price tag was said to be $100 million. At about the same time, it was revealed that the Pakistani-run network had provided information and nuclear-weapons components to Iran and North Korea, and had begun negotiations with a fourth country, perhaps Syria or Saudi Arabia. The current dictator of Pakistan, General Pervez Musharraf, denied any personal knowledge or governmental involvement, and with his masters in Washington, D.C., looking sternly on, accused Khan of running a rogue operation, outside the law. It was theater of the diplomatic kind. But Musharraf was an unconvincing actor. In the context of Pakistan he might as well have expressed surprise that Khan had built a house on the shores of a drinking-water supply.

Khan's top lieutenants had already been detained. Now Khan himself was arrested—taken away by plainclothes security agents who came in the night and drove him to a secret location for a few days of questioning and persuasion. An agreement was reached, and on February 4, 2004, in a stage-managed event, Khan appeared on television and made a public confession, in which he apologized to the nation and absolved the military regime of involvement. Musharraf called Khan a national hero for his earlier work, and then pardoned him and confined him to house arrest at his grand Los Angeles—style residence in the nation's tightly controlled capital, Islamabad, a short drive north of Rawalpindi. Khan has been there ever since, in isolation with his European wife, surrounded by guards and security agents, cut off from contact with the outside world, not allowed to read the newspapers or watch television, let alone to use the telephone or the Internet, and held beyond the reach of even the intelligence services of the United States. The intelligence services would like to debrief him, because of the likelihood that much of the network he established remains alive worldwide, and that by its very nature—loose, unstructured, technically specialized, determinedly amoral—it is both resilient and mutable, and can resume its activities when the opportunity arises, as inevitably it will. Pakistan has mounted its own investigation, and is parceling out some information to the United Nations' International Atomic Energy Agency, the IAEA, in Vienna. But for obvious reasons the Pakistani regime cannot allow deep scrutiny to occur, and neither, out of perceived geopolitical necessity, can the current leaders of the United States.

Khan therefore remains an enigma—a man who may die in isolation, still carrying his secrets with him. Some news does filter out about the conditions of his captivity. He has aged considerably, and has lost weight and sickened, but apparently he is not being poisoned. After decades of soft living he suffers from various physical ailments, including constipation and, more significant, chronic high blood pressure, which led last summer to a brief hospitalization. He is also deeply despondent—convinced that he served his nation honorably, and that even as he transferred its nuclear secrets to other countries, he was acting on behalf of Pakistan, and with the complicity of its military rulers. He sleeps poorly at night. Last spring he managed to slip a note out to one of his former lieutenants. It was a scribbled lament in which he asked about General Musharraf, "Why is this boy doing this to me?" The answer seems obvious: it is a requirement for maintaining power. Ordinary Pakistanis remain on Khan's side. But out of self-protection the elites must turn away from him now.

Even his longtime scribe, a journalist named Zahid Malik, who for years praised Khan in public, and published an adoring biography of him in 1992, told me recently that Khan's arrest was necessary. We met in Malik's Islamabad office, at the newspaper he founded, called the Pakistan Observer. He emphasized his loyalty to the military regime. He said, "After 9/11 Pakistan has emerged as a trusted and responsible ally of the West. Pakistan has adopted a principled position, you see, of working against terrorism, extremism, al-Qaeda, and all that. When Pakistan came to know of certain complaints, Pakistan reacted, you see, and very forcefully. Because as President Musharraf has been saying, and rightly so, whatever Dr. Khan did was his personal act."

He also said that Musharraf is rooting out corruption.

Since we were on the subject of law, I asked him what he knew about the formal basis for Khan's continuing detention. He did not directly answer. He said, "The government says it is because of his security. His own safety."

I asked, "Do you believe that yourself? That it's in his interest to be confined?"

Malik did not hesitate. Almost eagerly he said, "I think so, I think so."

It pays in Pakistan to be politically realistic. Khan's days on the lake are over, but other people are still out there building or expanding their houses. The most noticeable place is next door to Khan's. It is under construction, and showy in the style of an international hotel. Khan's house by comparison seems modest now, all the more so because it is shuttered and abandoned. Even on sun-filled days there is a sadness to the scene; in the afternoons when the wind comes up, there is nonetheless a stillness. Khan's garden, which slopes to the shore and was once his pride, is growing wild. He has a little speedboat beside a private dock, but it is open to the rain and is slowly swamping, settling nose-down into the water.

Khan's personal history is obscured as much by adulation as by secrecy. Something is known of his childhood. He was born in 1936, to a Muslim family in Bhopal, India—a city now known for the 18,000 deaths caused there by an accidental venting, one night in 1984, at a Union Carbide insecticide plant. Bhopal in the 1930s was split between Hindus and Muslims. The two groups lived in wary but peaceful proximity, despite growing sectarian animosity elsewhere on the Subcontinent. Khan was one of seven children. His father was a retired schoolmaster of modest means, with a thin, severe face, a white beard, and a turban. He was a partisan of the Muslim League, and when visiting the bazaar would warn like-minded men of Mahatma Gandhi's craftiness, and his ambition to annihilate the Muslims. These were of course common fears at the time, and they were reflected on the Hindu side as well. After World War II, as Great Britain rushed to withdraw from its burdensome colonial charge, and India's factions deadlocked over a power-sharing arrangement, a partition was decided upon that would carve a separate Muslim nation, called Pakistan, from Indian soil. The new nation would itself be split in two, between the Muslim-majority area of the west, primarily along the Indus River, and a smaller Muslim area far to the east, on the delta of the Ganges, in Bengal. It was an awkward exit strategy, but better than trying to control a full-blown civil war. A British official was sent from London, and with no previous expertise in the region, he drew up the boundaries within a few weeks.

Khan by then was a schoolboy, and according to Zahid Malik, he was a perfect one. He was devout, studious, and respectful of his teachers, and for good measure he was also a perfect son. All this and more, Malik believes, had been foretold. He writes that some months after Khan's birth his mother took the infant to a fortune-teller, known as the Maharaj, to look into his future. After performing calculations the Maharaj said, "The birth of this child will bring good fortune to his family. The child is very lucky. He is going to do a lot of good deeds in his life ahead. He will receive two kinds of education."

In the book Malik pauses to explain: "Probably the Maharaj referred to the Science of Metallurgy and Nuclear Physics, or perhaps to a local and foreign education system."

The fortune-teller continued, "Up to the age of eight months, he will suffer from stomach pain and a cough, after which he will have a long and healthy life. He will outstand in his family and will be a source of great pride and honor to his parents, brothers, and sisters. He is going to do very important and useful work for his nation and will earn immense respect." Furthermore, "Due to your son's good luck, you will soon be rewarded with great wealth."

But first there were troubles to endure. At the time of the Partition, in 1947, one of the greatest migrations in human history got under way, as over the course of a few months more than 10 million people—Hindus, Sikhs, and Muslims—fled the hostility of their old communities and sorted themselves out in the new nations. They moved by train and bus, and on foot. In the absence of governmental power India's social hatreds took form, and the migrants were attacked by mobs. The history is obscure and highly propagandized, but it seems that entire trainloads were massacred on both sides, that rape was rampant, and that several hundred thousand people died. In Pakistan perhaps seven million Muslims arrived, however traumatized.

Abdul Quadeer Khan was not initially among them: his parents chose to remain in Bhopal, where their lives seemed comfortable enough. But the city was no longer really their home, and over the subsequent few years its Muslim residents endured increasing harassment by their Hindu neighbors and the Hindu police. Three of Khan's older brothers and one of his sisters eventually left for Pakistan, and in the summer of 1952, having passed his matriculation exam, A.Q., at the age of sixteen, followed them there. He traveled across India by train, among a group of other Bhopali Muslims who were intimidated and attacked by Hindu railroad officials and the police. Jewelry and money were stolen from his companions, and people were beaten. Khan lost merely a pen, but the bullying marked him for life. The train ride ended at the border town of Mona Bao, beyond which lay a five-mile stretch of barren desert, and Pakistan. Zahid Malik describes Khan's crossing in the style of a founding epic. Carrying his shoes and a few books and belongings, the young A. Q. walked barefoot across the blistering sands to arrive at last in the Promised Land. He went to live with one of his brothers in Karachi. His mother arrived soon afterward. His father stayed in Bhopal, and died there some years later. Khan enrolled at the D. J. Science College of Karachi, where he excelled.

Pakistan by then was five years old. It was still a democracy, albeit a messy one. It had already fought and lost its first war with India over the disputed territory of Kashmir, a mountainous and predominantly Muslim region which for complex political reasons went to India at the time of the Partition. Pakistan had drawn the wrong lessons from its battlefield loss. It was born a poor nation and could not afford war, but its people hated India, and its military was on the rise. In 1958, on the pretext of threats to the nation, the army of Pakistan overthrew the democratic government and declared martial law. It is not known how Khan reacted. He was twenty-two, and in his final years in college. He believed, as many Pakistanis still do, that India had never accepted the Subcontinent's partition, and (as he told his friends) that Hindus were tricksters with hegemonic designs. It is possible, therefore, that he accepted the need for firm leadership. In later years he argued publicly against military rule despite the fact that he was providing Pakistan's generals with the ultimate weapon, and with that weapon, increased arrogance and strength. But in 1958 he was still essentially an apolitical young man, intent on studying science.

He graduated from college in 1960, and at the age of twenty-four became an inspector of weights and measures in Karachi. It was the sort of government job that might have lasted a lifetime, but Khan was more ambitious, and he secured the funding to pursue his education abroad. In 1961 he resigned from his job, and flew to West Berlin to study metallurgical engineering at a technical university there. His German grew fluent. He was lonely for Pakistan, but open to the experience of living in Europe, and to making new friends.

In 1962, while on vacation in The Hague, he met the woman who would become his wife. He had written a postcard home, and when he inquired about the price of a stamp, she was the stranger who happened by with an answer. Her name was Henny. She was a frumpy-looking girl of twenty, in glasses, who had been born in South Africa to Dutch expatriates, and had spent her childhood in Africa before returning with her parents to the Netherlands. She held a British passport, and though she spoke native Dutch, she lived in Holland as a registered foreigner. She and Khan corresponded for a few months, after which she took a job in Berlin to be closer to him. After a year they returned to Holland, where Khan transferred to a university in Delft to continue his studies in metallurgy. In 1963 he and Henny were married in a modest Muslim ceremony at Pakistan's embassy in The Hague. The marriage was performed by an embassy official and witnessed by the ambassador, as a standard service to citizens abroad. There was a small tea party, as was usual. Khan had no special connections to the Pakistani government, and was not yet working as its spy.

Nonetheless, he was making university contacts in the fields of engineering and applied science, and unintentionally laying the foundation for the European network that would help Pakistan to produce nuclear arms. Khan spent four years in Delft, where he earned a master's degree and learned to speak good Dutch. He and Henny then moved to Leuven, in Belgium, where he pursued doctoral studies at Catholic University under a professor named Martin Brabers—a metallurgist who was later to serve (innocently, he claimed) as an important consultant to the Pakistani nuclear-weapons program. In Belgium, Henny gave birth to two daughters, two years apart. Khan said that he did not need a son, and that given the overcrowding of the world, two children were enough. He was not a brilliant researcher but a willing and hardworking one. Over the course of his studies in Delft and Leuven he published twenty-three papers and edited one book (with Brabers) on a variety of arcane metallurgical topics. His superiors were impressed, and so were his friends. To top it off, he was affable and outgoing and, as everyone agreed, just a very nice guy.

In 1972 he received his Ph.D. in metallurgical engineering, and having cast about for jobs, went to work in Amsterdam for a consulting firm called FDO. He might just as easily have taken a position at a university, a steel mill, or an aircraft manufacturer; he certainly was not setting out to build a bomb. But FDO happened to specialize in the design of machines called ultra-centrifuges—rapidly spinning tubes used to separate and concentrate certain isotopes in gasified uranium, in order ultimately to produce enriched uranium. FDO was a major subcontractor for a consortium called URENCO, which had been founded jointly by the governments of Britain, Holland, and Germany two years before. It had built a large state-of-the-art centrifuge plant in the Dutch town of Almelo, on the border with Germany, to enrich uranium for the nuclear-power-generation industry. The process there is in broad strokes not difficult to understand. The fissionable isotope known as U-235 exists in natural uranium at a concentration of only 0.7 percent; for the purposes of a power-generation reactor the concentration of that isotope has to be increased about fivefold, to at least three percent; the trick is to isolate and shed a similar isotope known as U-238, which is infinitesimally heavier. By spinning at very high speeds—electrically driven to 70,000 revolutions per minute, in perfect balance, on superb bearings, in a vacuum, linked by pipes to thousands of other units doing the same—this is what the centrifuge achieves. At URENCO the purpose was peaceful. One problem, however, with nuclear technology is that often the difference between a peaceful and a military purpose is merely a matter of the mind. Tangibly, the type of centrifuges in use at URENCO were (and are) capable of continuing the enrichment process past the commercial mark, and of concentrating the U-235 to more than 90 percent, which is the threshold necessary for a fission bomb.

As a result, the operational details at both URENCO and FDO were held as state secrets, and Khan—like other employees—needed to receive a security clearance before going to work there. This turned out not to be an obstacle. The Dutch internal security service ran a background check, and Khan was approved. Much has been made of this since then, as if the background check was too perfunctory; but Khan had strong references and a clean record, and even he did not yet know what was soon to be on his mind. He was thirty-six years old, a diligent husband, and the father of two. He moved with his family into a nice little house in a nice little town, and settled in to enjoy a quiet Dutch life.

But then history came chasing Khan down. It took the form of war. In the spring of 1971, after years of discriminatory treatment by Pakistan's dominant west, East Pakistan rose up in rebellion and began to agitate for independence as a new nation, called Bangladesh. The Pakistan military reacted brutally, and a terrible civil war broke out on the Bengali deltas and plains. The fighting went on inconclusively for most of the year, generating huge casualties among civilians and sending several million refugees streaming across the borders into India. Pakistan's international reputation sank to an all-time low. Having gauged the geopolitical effect of this correctly, and emboldened by its friendship with the Soviet Union, India then seized the opportunity to dismember its foe, and mounted a full-scale invasion of East Pakistan with overwhelming force. The battles were short. Pakistan's once strutting army collapsed, and in December of 1971, at a humiliating ceremony in a stadium in Dacca, it unconditionally surrendered. Ninety-three thousand Pakistani soldiers were taken prisoner. For what it's worth, an independent Bangladesh was born.

Thirty-four years later it may seem obvious that the loss of Bangladesh was a blessing—but it is still not seen so today in Pakistan, and it was certainly not seen so at the time. The trauma was severe. The military regime fell, and Pakistan's greatest civilian leader—the democratically elected, populist, and some would say demagogic Zulfikar Ali Bhutto—assumed power. Bhutto was a visionary, and seems to have believed that he had been born to save the nation. The lessons he drew from the defeat were similar to those of almost all Pakistanis, and therefore probably to those of A. Q. Khan as well. Khan was still in Leuven, wrapping up his dissertation, but with a close eye on his homeland. Pakistan was engaging in a certain amount of introspection and self-criticism, but no sooner had the domestic purges occurred than the blame for Bangladesh shifted primarily to the outside. A fifth of Pakistan's territory and more than half of its population had been lost—and to crafty Hindus who now seemed certain to want to finish off the rest. To make matters worse, Pakistan in its time of need had been abandoned by its important allies, China and the United States, whose power had been checked by the Soviet Union, and whose nuclear arms had proved to be of no value at all. Only the Islamic nations had rallied to its side, but they were weak and disdained, and incapable of providing much beyond symbolic help. When all was said and done, twenty-four years after the Partition, Pakistan seemed to be in mortal danger, and quite obviously could rely on no one but itself.

What Khan may not have known, but Bhutto certainly did, was that India was well on its way to possessing nuclear weapons. The intention to acquire them apparently dated back to even before the Partition, when Jawaharlal Nehru, looking forward to independence, said, "I hope Indian scientists will use the atomic force for constructive purposes, but if India is threatened, she will inevitably try to defend herself by all means at her disposal." In the literature on nuclear proliferation today, positions are staked out to explain why nations choose to develop nuclear weapons. Is it because of external threat and strategic defense? International prestige and diplomatic power? Bureaucratic striving? Populism, nationalism, and the need to impress constituents on the streets? In India it seems to have been all of the above, with added emphasis on strategic defense after India's humiliating 1962 defeat by China and China's subsequent test of a nuclear weapon in 1964. India's program was pursued in semi-secret, closely linked to a public program of nuclear-power generation and partially masked by it: it would not use enriched uranium as the fuel for weapons but rather would use plutonium, a byproduct of nuclear reactors that can be extracted from their radioactive wastes. On the receiving end the difference between enriched uranium and plutonium would not matter: the former had been used against Hiroshima, the latter against Nagasaki, and either material suitably compressed in a few fission bombs could release enough energy to devastate Pakistan. Pakistan protested in capitals around the world, and asked for diplomatic intervention, but to no avail. Though the likelihood of an Indian nuclear military program was evident, no sanctions were imposed; and indeed, Canada, France, and the United States continued to help India with its nominally peaceful nuclear plans.

Pakistan had its own nuclear plans, though less well developed. In the 1950s President Dwight D. Eisenhower launched a since discredited program called Atoms for Peace, under which a benevolent United States, while ensuring world peace with its rapidly growing nuclear arsenal, would assist governments with technology and training in the development of nuclear-power generation—as if such capacities were unrelated to the development of atomic bombs. Pakistan answered with the creation of the Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission, known as the PAEC, which initially had little interest in weapons, and to the extent that it progressed at all, did indeed concentrate on the possibilities for electric-power generation. By the mid-1960s, however, influential Pakistanis had begun to argue for nuclear deterrence against India. Bhutto, who was then the foreign minister, uttered the now famous remark that Pakistanis would eat grass if necessary, but they would have their bomb.

Given the desperate circumstances of Bhutto's subsequent rise to the national leadership, in 1971, it is not surprising that he set out almost immediately to make those dreams real. One month after the surrender of Pakistan's army in Bangladesh he called a secret meeting of about seventy Pakistani scientists under an awning on a lawn in a town in the Punjab. He asked them for a nuclear bomb, and they responded enthusiastically, promising delivery within an impossible five years. The largest obstacle, as usual, would be not with the design of a nuclear device but with the acquisition of the fissionable material to fuel it. At the meeting Bhutto placed responsibility for the weapons program with the PAEC, under an envoy to the IAEA named Munir Ahmed Khan. Munir Ahmed Khan was not related to A. Q. Khan, and would soon become his mortal enemy. Intending to exploit the radioactive waste from a small Canadian-built power reactor just coming on line, he set off, as the Indians had, on the path toward a plutonium bomb. Though Pakistan was not a signatory to international nonproliferation accords, the Canadians had required that their reactor be placed under IAEA controls: its fuel was to be accounted for before and after use, to verify that none was being diverted. Given his familiarity with the IAEA, Munir Ahmed Khan was not unduly concerned: presumably he believed that Pakistan could somehow secretly acquire additional nuclear fuel. His main need, therefore, was for a plutonium-extraction plant—a facility that the French eventually signed a contract to provide.

There is no evidence that A. Q. Khan was yet aware of the growing nuclear escalation on the Indian Subcontinent. But on May 18, 1974, an event occurred that left no room for doubt: beneath the desert of Rajasthan, near the Pakistani border, India detonated a fission device of roughly the same yield as the bomb that had destroyed Hiroshima. Prime Minister Indira Gandhi was watching. The desert floor heaved, and a message of success was sent to the capital, New Delhi. It read, "The Buddha is smiling." India explained to the world that this had been a peaceful test, and asserted that a nuclear device is no more inherently threatening than any other explosive—that the character of a device depends on its intended use. The world was unconvinced, but did little in response.

Far away in Amsterdam, A. Q. Khan believed that the Buddha had smiled in anticipation of Pakistan's death. He had been working at FDO for two years, and with the access he had found to the URENCO centrifuge technology, he realized that by chance he was in a position to help Pakistan face the threat. Apparently on his own, he decided to take action. It is said that soon after the Indian test he sought out a couple of senior Pakistani engineers who were visiting Holland to buy a wind tunnel, but when he mentioned his background and expressed his desire to return to Pakistan to help develop its nuclear capabilities, they discouraged him, saying that his expertise would not be appreciated and he might not even be able to find a job. That particular story is typical of those Khan later told (with increasing rancor) to bolster his heroic self-image—Khan as the national savior, struggling against the complacency, if not outright treachery, of nearly everyone else—but the story is plausible enough, perhaps, to be true.

His next move was more aggressive. In the summer of 1974 he sent a letter to Prime Minister Bhutto, presenting his credentials, summarizing the purpose of centrifuges, and again volunteering to help. Bhutto responded through the embassy in The Hague. The two men met in Karachi in December of 1974, after Khan and his family arrived for a holiday. Khan argued for a Pakistani effort to enrich uranium—a route to the bomb that, he assured Bhutto, would be faster than Munir Ahmed Khan's pursuit of plutonium reprocessing, then under way. The plutonium project was troubled, because the Canadians had responded to the Indian test by beginning to withdraw their support for the Pakistani reactor they had built. Pakistan had expressed outrage, but could not escape the fact that Bhutto had effectively renewed his call for a bomb. Munir Ahmed Khan and his engineers at the PAEC believed that they could run the reactor without Canadian assistance, and they insisted that with the French extraction plant in the offing, Pakistan should stick with its original plan. Bhutto did not disagree, but he saw the advantage of mounting a parallel effort toward enriched uranium, and decided on the spot to place A. Q. Khan in charge.

And Khan was a self-starter. Even before the go-ahead from Bhutto, he had gotten to work. For sixteen fruitful days in the fall of 1974 he had stayed in Almelo on a special assignment to URENCO, where he had helped with the translation of secret centrifuge plans from German into Dutch, and in his spare time had walked freely through the buildings, taking copious notes—in Urdu. Some of the places he had visited were nominally off limits to him, but not once had he been challenged. A few people had asked him what his notes were about, and he had answered, half truthfully, that he was writing letters home.

With Bhutto's approval, Khan now returned to Amsterdam to gather more information. It was early 1975. He was thirty-eight years old, and much liked at FDO. As was his habit, he arrived at the lab with postcards, sweets, and other little presents for the staff. Despite the secrets held at FDO, the atmosphere there was even more open and relaxed than at URENCO, with no visible security and none of the culture of suspicion that governments might have wished to impose. One bin held discarded prototype centrifuge parts—components that were perhaps not quite within specifications—and employees were free to scavenge keepsakes from it to put on their desks. Either immediately before or after his trip to Pakistan, Khan began not merely to scavenge them but to take them home. Presumably, some of those components made their way to Pakistan's embassy, which had received instructions from Islamabad to help.

Thirty years later I met Khan's office mate of 1975, an FDO machinist and staff photographer named Frits Veerman, now sixty-two, who drove me to Almelo, on his first return to the URENCO site in all this time. Veerman turned out to be a typically moralistic Dutchman with a maddening manner, as a driver, of strictly respecting the speed limits, to the point of braking frequently to slow down. Riding with him was a rare form of torture not yet known to Pakistan. I soon understood that living with him would have been worse: his wife and children believed he was obsessed with Khan, and wished he would leave the subject alone. But Veerman had been marked by Khan's actions, and whether because of this brush with fame or because he was truly troubled by the spread of nuclear weapons, he could not stop repeating the story.

He told me that he and Khan had been close friends. They were fellow geeks, I suppose—at least to the extent that centrifuges seem truly to have excited them both. Whenever Khan discovered something interesting on the laboratory floor, or Veerman did, they would troop off together to study it and share their joy. They shared other enthusiasms as well. When the weather turned warm and women in Amsterdam took to walking around in scanty clothes, the two friends would go sightseeing through the city, in earnest appreciation of the female form. Khan in particular was easily smitten, and occasionally would wander off to ogle some woman despite Veerman's entreaties to return to work. I asked Veerman if he meant to say that Khan had frequented prostitutes. He answered as he often did to my questions about those times, with a bewildered and plaintive "I don't know!"—as if he couldn't be sure of anything anymore.

But Khan was almost certainly a good family man, and for that reason a better spy. Veerman was still a bachelor then, and sometimes was invited over for dinner. Henny was less gregarious than Khan, and a bit overshadowed by him, but she was gracious and polite, and the two girls were young and very nice. The family spoke English at home. Veerman would arrive with ten pounds of Dutch cheese, or more, because some of his relatives were cheese makers, and Henny liked cheese a lot. The meals typically consisted of barbecued chicken and rice. Khan had a special fondness for the chicken. The drinks were non-alcoholic. In the style of small Dutch towns, the curtains were left open at night and the illumination was kept high, so anyone passing on the street could see that inside the house everything was just right. Veerman believed nearly the same for a while, though on several occasions he noticed classified documents on a desk in Khan's home, in apparent violation of the lab's security procedures. Khan explained that Henny was helping with translations. He was so clearly unconcerned with hiding the documents away that Veerman assumed Henny was being paid, and therefore had been checked out and approved. Sometimes other Pakistanis came for dinner. They did not explain their jobs. Much later, when Veerman himself was accused of having helped Khan, Dutch intelligence agents showed him photographs confirming that these men had come from the Pakistani embassy, and were its spies. It appears likely that at the very dinners Veerman enjoyed, blueprints and other documents were being collected and taken away. But everything seemed so aboveboard—so normal and brightly lit—that Veerman was mostly just glad to have this friend. He was probably also proud. The pattern was similar at the lab, where Khan formally and in writing asked Veerman to take detailed photographs of the centrifuges and their parts. Taking photographs was one of Veerman's regular jobs. And because he had a European sense of hierarchy ("Abdul was a doctor, and I was just a normal person—do you understand?"), he unquestioningly complied.

Finally, however, it was Veerman who suspected that something was wrong. He enjoyed vacationing in foreign lands, especially when he could lodge with local people and see life through their eyes. He was not much drawn to Pakistan, but when Khan suggested warmly that he should visit, and held out the promise that he could stay with Khan's friends and family, Veerman jumped at the chance. Khan suggested places to see, and provided Veerman with information about direct flights from London. Veerman began to make his plans. Veerman was of course more than a staff photographer: he was a highly specialized centrifuge technician, full of secret knowledge and useful skills. In retrospect it is obvious that Khan hoped to tangle him up or seduce him somehow, and to use him in the project to build a bomb. But then Khan made a rare miscalculation, if only of Veerman's sense of right and wrong: after a short delay, during which he must have consulted with Pakistani officials, he came back to Veerman with an offer to pay for the trip. Veerman was shocked, and immediately declined. He told me that suddenly a light lit up in his mind. Khan's wanderings at FDO and Urenco came back to him, as did the classified documents in Khan's home, his Pakistani guests, the frequent conversations he had conducted in Urdu on his office phone, the photographs he had requested, and his very enthusiasm for centrifuges. He remembered that Khan wore a large gold ring, and that once he had joked that when he had to run away, he could sell it and get home to Pakistan—he carried his ticket on his finger. Veerman no longer thought of this as a joke. He realized that his friend Abdul was a nuclear spy.

The stakes were obviously high. Veerman feared that if his suspicions were discovered, his life would be at risk. He invented an excuse not to visit Pakistan, and began gingerly to distance himself from Khan. But these were temporary measures at best; the next time Khan submitted a formal request for photographs, Veerman would have no choice but to disregard it, and would have to explain why. Furthermore, as a man trusted to handle state secrets, he believed that he had a moral responsibility to sound an alarm. The question was how. He had no proof, and was intimidated by the idea of making serious allegations against a man of much higher rank. As best he knew, neither URENCO nor FDO had procedures in place to handle such a case, or to ensure his anonymity.

He tried to ensure it himself. He went to a public phone and called the head office at URENCO, but was unable to get through to the director. He then sent the same message to the director of FDO, also without effect. Finally he took his concerns in person to his manager at the laboratory. The manager was visibly skeptical. He later got back to Veerman, scolding him that such allegations were too serious to be made without proof, and advising him not to stir up trouble at the lab. FDO was overcome, in other words, by a sort of institutional inertia. Veerman assumed—and still assumes—that nothing was made of his warnings. Paradoxically, FDO's unwillingness to confront the problem provided Veerman with the anonymity he desired: to the end, Khan never suspected that his friend had turned against him. But at roughly the same time, the Dutch government learned that a certain Pakistani agent, working out of the embassy in Brussels, had attempted to buy a highly specialized centrifuge component, the knowledge of which seemed perhaps to have come from Khan. Highly specialized components are rare in the business of building bombs. The Dutch government quietly communicated its concern to the lab—acknowledging, however, that the evidence was ambiguous and inconclusive. In October of 1975 FDO finally roused itself and promoted Khan to a new and less sensitive job, which would keep him away from the centrifuge technology. Khan's stay in Europe had come to an end. He was never, however, under such pressure that he had to sell his ring and flee. Two months after his promotion, in December of 1975, he simply flew his family back to Pakistan on another holiday, and this time did not return.

He had succeeded by then in stealing the plans for the most advanced uranium-enrichment process known to the West. Such was the appearance of normalcy, however, that neither urenco nor FDO quite woke up to what had happened. Initially Khan sent word from Pakistan that he had come down with yellow fever and would have to extend his stay into 1976; later he explained that he had found an important new job, and that regretfully he would resign from FDO, effective March 1. Relations remained friendly, in part because Khan showed no tendency to duck and hide. He may have been something of a sociopath, and from early on. In any case, such was his self-centeredness that apparently he felt no regret, even on a personal level, for the trust he had betrayed, and he refused to believe that decent people—for instance, his old friends in Europe—might consider that he had done something wrong. These attitudes predated his return to Pakistan. He had known enough while at urenco to lie about the nature of his letters back home, and he must have had some sense that he might be subject to prosecution; but he was an effective spy largely because, for reasons of personality, he was such an open one. For their part, the managers at FDO remained confused. They knew that Khan was now involved in a large government project in Pakistan, probably in the construction of centrifuges. Nonetheless, they continued to communicate with him, and in 1977, having sent a representative to Islamabad, they went so far as to sell him expensive instrumentation originally designed for urenco.

Khan continued to cultivate Veerman as a friend and a source of secret information. In January of 1976 he wrote Veerman, "Dear Frits, it is now almost a month since we left the Netherlands, and I am gradually beginning to miss the delicious chicken. Every afternoon I think: ask Frits if he feels like eating chicken." After another chatty letter, in which he extolled the spring beauty of Islamabad and renewed his invitation to Veerman to visit, he wrote twice again, and this time got down to business. In one letter, for instance, he wrote,

Very confidentially, I request you to help us. I urgently need the following for our research program: 1. Etches of pivots: (a) Tension—how many volts? (b) Electricity—how many amperes? (c) How long is etching to be done? (d) Solution (electrolytic) HCL or something other is added as an inhibitor. If it is possible, [I would be] grateful for 3-4 etched pivots. I shall be very grateful if you could send a few negatives for the pattern. You would be having negatives of these. 2. Lower shock absorber. Can you provide a complete absorber of CNOR [a type of centrifuge]? Please give my greetings to Frencken, and try to get a piece for me. You can ask for it, or get it in pieces. In any case I shall like to request you very strongly to send me a few pieces (3 or 4) of membranes, and a few pieces of steel springs that are used in the absorber ... Frits, these are very urgently required, without which the research would come to a standstill. I am sure you can provide me with these. These two things are very small, and I hope you will not disappoint me.

Veerman did not answer the letters. Instead, as a dutiful employee, he took them to his supervisor, who told Veerman that he should destroy them and that if he didn't, he would go to jail. Ultimately he lost his job, as whistleblowers tend to, because he was no longer appreciated at FDO. During the subsequent period of unemployment he was picked up by Dutch security agents belatedly following Khan's trail. The agents took him to a prison in Amsterdam, where representatives of various government organizations questioned him for two days. The questioning grew confrontational. According to Veerman, the agents accused him of spying, but backed down in the face of his outrage. He in turn accused them of having made a huge mistake in allowing this technology to escape. And for what—the financial benefit of a few companies?

They said, "You have made trouble."

He said, "No, you have made trouble! I was a technician with a security clearance, and I found a spy in my laboratory!"

"This is not your problem."

"Yes, it is. I have a top security clearance."

"Go home. You may not talk about this anymore. It is dangerous for Holland. Go home."

Veerman did go home, but he began talking to the local press. Word gradually spread, not only about what Khan had done in Amsterdam but, by implication, about what he was doing now. Veerman remained under surveillance by the Dutch security services for more than a year. Eventually he found a safe job in the bureaucracy of a health-insurance company, where he spent the rest of his working life.

Press reports about Khan's spying continued to emerge, and they provoked emotional responses from Khan and his friends, who believed by the late 1970s that a smear campaign had been organized in the West. In 1980 Khan responded to a report in the British Observer with a vitriolic letter to the editor, in which he wrote,

The article on Pakistan in the issue of 9.12.1979 by Colin Smith and Shyam Bhatia was so vulgar and low that I considered it an insult to reflect on it. It was in short words a bull-shit, full of lies, insinuations and cheap journalism for money and cheap publicity. Shyam Bhatia, a Hindu bastard, could not write anything objective about Pakistan. Both insinuated as if Holland is an atomic bomb manufacturing factory where, instead of cheese balls, you could pick up "triggering mechanisms." Have you for a moment thought of the meaning of this word? Of course not because you could not differentiate between the mouth and the back hole of a donkey.

Despite such transparent bluster and prevarication, and the fact that Khan had indeed obtained state secrets, the truth is that by European legal standards it was difficult to prove that Khan had been a spy. In 1980 the Dutch government issued an embarrassed report, concluding that Khan had probably stolen centrifuge designs but pointing out that the evidence remained weak and circumstantial. Indeed, three years later, after further investigations, when the Dutch finally prosecuted Khan, it was not for espionage but for the letters he had written to Veerman requesting classified information. "Attempted espionage" was apparently the best they could do. Khan was convicted in absentia, and sentenced to four years in prison.

Khan saw dark forces at play. Zahid Malik faithfully writes, "This court was comprised of three judges, and was presided over by a woman who was a Jew. Another of the judges was also a Jew. It looked as if this case was instituted under pressure from the Israeli Prime Minister, and its verdict was also written in Tel Aviv."

If so, the Zionist conspirators were uncharacteristically sloppy, because Khan was never properly served with the charges, as a result of which a Dutch court overturned the conviction two years later. Khan appeared on Pakistani television for the first time soon afterward. He said, "This case was false and mala fide. I am happy that it is all over, because my prestige, which had been affected, has now not only been vindicated, but all the allegations which were being leveled against Pakistan's nuclear program have also been quashed." Not even Khan could have quite believed these claims. But Khan was gloating. By then it was June of 1986, one decade after his return, and as the world was coming to recognize, Pakistan in that short time had already achieved the capacity to build a nuclear bomb. People had said that in such a place it could not be done.

W hen, someday, the nuclear arming of the world is nearer to being complete—when, say, a few dozen fourth-rate countries have been able to acquire such destructive power—people may still be blaming the Dutch, as they do today, for having allowed Khan to obtain such dangerous knowledge and run away. The fact of the matter, however, is that once the technology of nuclear weaponry became manifest in the ruins of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, in 1945, the spying that led to its subsequent spread was as difficult to prevent at Los Alamos and elsewhere as, later, at Almelo. By the time Khan began to steal from the Dutch, similar acts of intellectual "borrowing" had to varying degrees contributed to the acquisition of nuclear weapons by the Soviet Union, China, Israel, France, India, and white South Africa—and also to nuclear-weapons projects that were ultimately (and perhaps temporarily) abandoned in Argentina, Brazil, South Korea, and Taiwan. It is true that Khan's success came as a particular shock, because it turned this runt called Pakistan into something like a runt with a gun. But to see that success clearly, and to understand the further proliferation that has resulted, it is insufficient to focus on the loss of state secrets, or to single out the Dutch.

Khan himself has accurately said that the designs he obtained in Holland were not nearly enough. Building the thousands of centrifuges that were necessary, and then putting them to use, required solving untold numbers of practical problems, and equipping a new industrial plant with technology that lay beyond the indigenous capabilities of Pakistan. Khan's solution, once he returned to Pakistan, was to buy the technology in bits and pieces from manufacturers and consultants in the West. He knew where to shop because he had kept names and addresses from his years in Europe, and he knew who might provide what, and why. Later he bragged that it was this knowledge, and not his so-called theft of designs, that counted most in enabling Pakistan to build the bomb. The market he worked was gray rather than black, because with few exceptions the equipment and materials he sought had multiple uses, and usually would trigger questions only if a nuclear purpose was openly declared. For the most sensitive items Khan used front companies, false end-user certificates, and third-country destinations to obscure the intended use; but generally he or his agents simply went out and bought the stuff. The list was long. Machine tools, magnets, exotic steel. Vacuum pumps, ball bearings, instrumentation of all kinds. The manufacturers who sold to Khan, like the European professors who signed on as his consultants, tended to be willingly naive and greedy. Those who were confronted by Western authorities invariably claimed to believe they were helping an impoverished country to pursue peaceful research. Pakistan was indeed an impoverished country, and all the more so because it was spending a fortune on this. I've been told that Khan was willing to pay two or three times the going rate for what he bought, as a premium for working fast and in the shadows. And having such money was fun. Spending it gave Khan power. He felt vindicated somehow that in the same nations where he was being pilloried as a spy, there were so many people who, as he described them, would come begging for his business. Nor did it escape his attention that one of those nations was Pakistan's former colonial master, and that the beggars now were whites. At times it was nearly enough to make a man glad for the nuclear success, next door, of all those Hindu bastards.

Khan particularly resented two of the traditional nuclear powers. Responding to criticisms of Pakistan's program, he wrote a bitter letter in 1979 to the German newsmagazine Der Spiegel, in which he said,

I want to question the bloody holier-than-thou attitudes of the Americans and the British. Are these bastards God-appointed guardians of the world to stockpile hundreds of thousands of nuclear warheads and have they God-given authority to carry out explosions every month? If we start a modest programme, we are the satans, the devils ...

He had overstated the numbers, but he was expressing widely held opinions, and indeed making a legitimate point. Since the 1960s the possession of nuclear weapons had been considered the exclusive prerogative of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council—the Soviet Union, France, Great Britain, China, and the United States—with a special exception made for Israel, and with Japan and the rest of Europe tagging along unarmed but under the protection of the American or the Soviet nuclear umbrella. The inequity of this arrangement was formalized in 1970 (when Khan was still a graduate student) by an openly discriminatory global agreement: an American initiative known as the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, or NPT, which recognized the overlap between electric power generation and the construction of weapons, and attempted to place controls on the spread of fissionable fuel and nuclear technology. That treaty today, having at best slowed the emergence of some new nuclear-weapons states, still constitutes the foundation for nonproliferation efforts worldwide. It has four essential parts. The first prohibits the traditional non-nuclear-weapons states (or the 184 that have signed—India, Pakistan, and Israel never have) from attempting to build nuclear weapons. The second assures those same states that as a consequence of joining the treaty they have the right to acquire peaceful nuclear technology—subject, however, to intrusive IAEA inspections and controls. So far, so good—why insist on equity in the world if that lets the world go up in smoke? But the third part, which is an operational understanding, works as a subversive display of just the sort of political power that nuclear weapons can provide: it is a blanket exemption from any such international intrusion for the traditional "club of five." Finally, the fourth part is a feeble promise that the declared nuclear powers will themselves somehow, someday, disarm—standing down from power in a dream world without nuclear weapons, which no one can realistically expect to see.

In the West the weaknesses of the Non-Proliferation Treaty were understood from the start. For the treaty to have weight it would have to be backed by the threat of sanctions—but even then, given the willingness of governments to "eat grass" to acquire such military capabilities, it was unlikely to deter serious aspirants from pursuing the bomb. The solution, therefore, would lie in the complex realm of export controls—restrictions on the sale of nuclear-related materials and components that might appear to be for peaceful purposes (research, health care, power generation) but could be used for weapons development. Emphasis was to be put on technologies that would allow countries to become self-sufficient in nuclear fuels—on uranium-enrichment and plutonium-extraction plants. Exports would be allowed to countries that had joined the treaty, subject to IAEA scrutiny on the ground, but would be banned to countries that had refused to sign, like Pakistan. The reliance on the United Nations posed obvious operational problems: the IAEA was a politicized bureaucracy, awash in national jealousies, and staffed by functionaries who considered themselves to be in the business primarily of encouraging nuclear-energy development. Nonetheless, in the early and mid-1970s two groups of technologically advanced countries (diplomatic assemblies known as the Zangger Committee and the Nuclear Suppliers Group) began to meet to decide on the lists of restricted materials and equipment and to negotiate the tricky terrain of national implementation and cooperation between participating governments. Over the thirty ensuing years their record has been mixed. Though they have produced ever longer export control lists that have helped to slow the nuclear trade by forcing more of it underground, they themselves have been stymied by national bureaucracies, slowed by governmental reluctance to interfere with lucrative business deals, and frustrated by the depths of global trade. As a result their lists have lagged behind the market they intend to regulate. And at no point have they been a match for energies like those of A. Q. Khan.

In fairness, Khan was an extraordinarily aggressive man. After his return to Pakistan, in December of 1975, he spent a few months within the confines of the Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission, but he was frustrated by its slow pace, and he angrily burst free. In a private conversation with Bhutto he accused the PAEC chairman—the despised Munir Ahmed Khan—of betraying the country. As he later remembered the conversation to Zahid Malik, Khan said to Bhutto, "Munir Ahmed Khan and his people are liars and cheats. They have no love for the country. They are not even faithful to you. They have told you a pack of lies. No work is being carried out, and Munir Ahmed Khan is cheating you." What he did not say, but at some point apparently believed, was that Munir Ahmed Khan had been turned by his tenure at the IAEA, and was actively subverting Pakistan's nuclear goals. Evidently Bhutto was too shrewd to be convinced, because he never took action against A. Q. Khan's enemies; but with nothing to be gained by frustrating Khan, and with perhaps some benefits to accrue from setting up a competition with the PAEC, he decided to give Khan full autonomy, and promised him a large and secret budget. He must have thought he was doing Khan a favor.

On July 31, 1976, Khan founded the Engineering Research Laboratories to set up and operate a centrifuge plant based on the stolen urenco designs. The raw uranium was to be mined in central Pakistan, converted to gas, and sent to Khan to spin very fast. If anyone asked, the stated purpose was to produce uranium enriched merely to the level necessary for electric-power generation—albeit completely outside of IAEA verification and controls. The plant was to be built as a complex of industrial-looking buildings among low hills about forty miles southeast of Islamabad, in an out-of-the-way town called Kahuta, which could be locked down and guarded by Pakistani security forces. Because Khan felt that his nation's survival was at stake, he proceeded not sequentially but simultaneously on multiple fronts—hiring staff, laying out the installations, initiating the construction of the Kahuta plant, and setting up a pilot project elsewhere to resolve the practical intricacies of linked centrifuges and to make the first trial runs. This was a big operation. Ultimately he hired as many as 10,000 people. Most important, he launched the procurement effort in Europe and the United States.

The U.S. government knew very well what was happening; Bhutto had made no secret of his ambitions, and by conventional logic it made sense for Pakistan to acquire a nuclear bomb. As an element of Cold War strategy, Pakistan remained a U.S. client state, somewhat prickly under Bhutto, but supported by American aid, and still quite accessible to American diplomats and officials. It is reasonable to assume—and was always presumed within Khan's inner circle to be true—that the CIA had penetrated both the PAEC and Kahuta from an early date. Given the size of the programs under way, this would have been easy to do. The view from the inside was sobering: despite an assumption among European governments that Pakistan lacked the necessary technical expertise, it became clear that this effort was serious, and that it was likely to succeed. Such an outcome seemed all the more worrisome in Washington, D.C., because Bhutto had resentfully mentioned Christian, Jewish, Hindu, and Communist bombs, and the possibility therefore existed that a Pakistani device would amount to more than a counterbalance to India—that it would be handled as a "Muslim" bomb to be spread around. Apparently other countries had the same idea, though with hope rather than fear: Libya and Saudi Arabia, for example, are both suspected of having funded Khan early on, probably with the expectation of a return. In any case, by the late 1970s, as Khan proceeded determinedly and American appeals to desist were rebuffed by the government in Islamabad, U.S. officials realized that the only chance they had to stop Pakistan from building a bomb was to take the supply-side approach—to block Pakistan's procurements abroad.

Blocking procurements within the United States proved to be relatively easy, because Khan had few American contacts, and U.S. export-control lists were already quite extensive—significantly more so than those that had been agreed upon by the international supplier groups. Moreover, deep within the customs and commerce bureaucracies, where such regulations are effectuated (or not) day to day, American officials, as representatives of a dominant nuclear power, tended naturally to agree on the importance of nonproliferation, and were alert to hints of violations that appeared in the paperwork that crossed their desks. As a result, though some transactions slipped by unseen, the U.S. government thwarted most of the attempted acquisitions from American suppliers.

The export-control record was altogether different in Europe, where constellations of companies were selling their wares to the Pakistanis, often with the tacit or explicit approval of their governments. In a breathless but generally reliable book titled The Islamic Bomb, published in 1981, the reporters Steve Weissman and Herbert Krosney tell a typical story of three of Khan's purchasing agents, who in 1976 went to a small Swiss company in a small Swiss town and proposed to buy its specialized high-vacuum valves for the express purpose of equipping a Pakistani centrifuge enrichment plant. The company dutifully checked with the Swiss authorities, who sent back a printout of their export regulations, including the list of restricted items as defined by the Nuclear Suppliers Group. Weissman and Krosney write,

Complete centrifuge units were listed, and could only be exported to [IAEA] safeguarded facilities, which the Pakistani enrichment plant was not. High-vacuum valves were not listed, even if expressly intended for a centrifuge enrichment unit. The valves might be necessary to the centrifuge. But, in the logic of the ... list, they were not "nuclear sensitive," and did not directly separate the two different uranium isotopes, uranium 235 and uranium 238.

The company, in other words, was informed that it could proceed with the sale, and so it did—as did others throughout Western Europe. In Holland, also in 1976, a Dutch company in the automotive-transmission business sold 6,500 high-strength steel tubes to Pakistan—tubes that could serve as the basic components of centrifuges. The Dutch government knew of the deal and advised against it, but the company sent their product anyway (initially claiming that the tubes were for agriculture), and argued that no export license was required by Dutch law. The argument was accepted, and further shipments went through without delay. Ultimately there were several paltry prosecutions, including one that led to the conviction of a Dutch businessman named Henk Slebos for illegally exporting an American-made Tektronix oscilloscope in 1983. Slebos was a personal friend of Khan's, and one of his main European suppliers. He was sentenced to a year in prison, but never served the time, and continued brazenly to send equipment to Pakistan. Controls were so loose that for more than a decade Khan himself kept visiting Europe.

Such was the scene American officials faced in the global nuclear marketplace as they grappled with the inadequacy of the UN's multi-party approach, and tried through private entreaties to European governments to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons. They were undercut, as they are today, by the thousands of nuclear warheads that the United States insisted on retaining for itself, and the resentment that such an obvious double standard provoked even within countries such as Germany and the Netherlands, which were said to be direct beneficiaries of American nuclear strength. They did, however, experience a few successes—particularly in 1977, when they pressured the French into backing out of the lucrative agreement to provide Pakistan with its long-desired plutonium-reprocessing plant. The cancellation set back the PAEC's nuclear-weapons plans by a decade or more. In consequence it further legitimized A. Q. Khan, and helped him to pursue his alternative goals—but nothing could be done about that anyway. For France the cost of killing the deal was several billion dollars, because of the loss of associated contracts for French products such as airplanes and trucks. The decision was all the more difficult because, with its "force de frappe," France embodied the right (and perhaps the need) of independent nations to bear nuclear arms. Such was its ambivalence that it had refused to join the Non-Proliferation Treaty. (It would not join until 1992.) Nonetheless, as an established power pretending to diplomatic relevance, it had little choice but to back away once it was faced with evidence of Pakistan's ambitions. By American estimation France this time behaved well.

West Germany, however, did not. Thirty years had elapsed since World War II, the German economy was strong, and the government had embarked on an ambitious program of energy self-sufficiency, which was to be achieved largely through nuclear-power generation. Germany had joined the Non-Proliferation Treaty in 1970, but from the start it had been concerned almost exclusively with the provisions that promoted the rights of member states to acquire peaceful nuclear technology. In practice the German government did not rigorously differentiate between countries that were member states and countries that were not. In the mid-1970s it entered into a major nuclear deal with Brazil, which had not joined the treaty but agreed in this case to accept IAEA safeguards as if it had. Such safeguards were weak, and everyone knew it. Nonetheless, Germany was going to sell Brazil no fewer than eight nuclear reactors, a uranium-enrichment plant, a fuel-fabrication plant, and plutonium-reprocessing facilities. Presumably the centrifuges would be of the same urenco design that A. Q. Khan was stealing for Pakistan at that very time. U.S. officials were angry, because they had indications that Brazil was secretly seeking a bomb. (So was Argentina, which had rejected the NonProliferation Treaty as "the disarmament of the disarmed.") But when the Americans took their concerns to Bonn, the Germans reacted skeptically, and said they would proceed with the deal. In Bonn an inside observer recently said to me, "The Americans said, 'Hey, wait a minute! This is what we can show you.' And they showed the Germans a little bit of information. Apparently it was just enough to persuade the Germans that they were off the reservation." The Germans gave in and reluctantly let the Brazilian contracts drift. Fifteen years later both Brazil and Argentina, for domestic political reasons, formally renounced their nuclear-weapons ambitions.

But the Germans were increasingly restive. Reflecting a sentiment that was organic and widespread in Europe, they resented the disproportionate power of the United States, and suspected the Americans of wanting to use nonproliferation to corner the free-world market in nuclear fuels. The founding of urenco was an act of resistance to such perceived domination. Moreover, resentment toward the United States was greatest not among the national policymakers, who could sometimes be swayed, but deep within European bureaucracies, among the ordinary diplomats and officials who transacted the daily business of government and were largely immune to American pressure. It was on that level—or lower—that the Pakistani purchasing network operated, and that the American attempts to stop Khan failed. The patterns were repetitive. Whenever American intelligence discovered that one company or another was about to export devices to Khan, U.S. officials would pass the information along in writing to their European counterparts in the expectation that the activity could be stopped. In some cases the Europeans refused to act because the sales were unambiguously legal. In many others interpretation would have been possible, and with sufficient commitment and energy the companies could have been approached and warned off. Instead, the Europeans closed ranks. Their attitude toward the Americans was them against us. The reports were slid into drawers, and the drawers were slid shut.

In Islamabad, A. Q. Khan was riding high. Such was the perceived importance of his work that he seemed safe from the political dangers even of Pakistan. His mentor Zulfikar Bhutto was overthrown in 1977, and later hanged, but the new dictator, General Zia ul Haq, proved to be just as committed to the bomb. By cutting off foreign aid for a year starting in September of 1977, the United States tried forcing Zia to cancel the French plutonium plan, but the effect was only to heighten Pakistan's nuclear resolve. People don't like being pushed around. In April of 1979 the United States tried for a second time, suspending aid because of Pakistan's nuclear activities—but only eight months later, on Christmas Day, the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan, and suddenly it seemed to Washington that more-important issues were at stake. Aid was resumed and nuclear nonproliferation quietly de-emphasized, as over the following decade Pakistan bled the Soviets on behalf of the United States. Much has been written about the folly of that tradeoff—and certainly the wisdom of the Afghan war will be argued for years to come—but the truth is that nothing the United States had done or could feasibly do was going to keep Pakistan from arming.

Khan, for one, never doubted his success. As long as he was granted autonomy and the budget he demanded, he was going to build the bomb. It is believed that as early as 1978 he may have had a prototype centrifuge running, and have been able to show some increase in the concentration of the isotope U-235. Three years later, in 1981, the production plant at Kahuta was ready to start up, and with such promise that General Zia renamed it the Khan Research Laboratories. This was the sort of gesture that made Khan inordinately proud. The work continued. There were difficulties with balancing the centrifuges, and with earthquakes and floods, but in just a few years Kahuta would probably have 10,000 centrifuges in place, and already a good number of them were linked and running. Around 1982 the plant achieved the first weapons-grade uranium, enriched to 90 percent or more; by 1984 it was producing enough fissionable material to build several bombs a year. Nor had Khan neglected the need for a warhead: his was an implosion device, based on a simple Chinese design, with an enriched-uranium core the size of a soccer ball surrounded by a symmetrical array of high explosives wired to a high-voltage switch to be triggered all at once. Soon he was going to work on a missile, too.

He had a problem, however, and it was poisoning his soul. Despite his repeated attempts to discredit Munir Ahmed Khan and his staff, the PAEC was still officially heading up Pakistan's nuclear-weapons program. They were going to restart their quest for plutonium reprocessing, which if successful would diminish the importance of Kahuta. Worse, they were already working on a missile, and they were developing their own warhead—one so similar to Kahuta's that Khan believed they had stolen his design. Khan fought back with transparent emotion, and increasingly in public. His surrogate Zahid Malik, for instance, published this description of Munir Ahmed Khan:

Although some of his loyal friends rank him as a good administrator (or a shrewd manipulator), nobody accepts him as a good scientist. He lacks moral values and is very devious. He can even be cruel where his personal interests are concerned. According to the authors of "The Islamic Bomb," Dr. I. H. Usmani had declared Munir Ahmed Khan a liar and a selfish person who disgraced Pakistan internationally by his conspiracies. According to these authors, he is a treacherous fellow, and time has also shown that he not only cheated Mr. Bhutto but also created a lot of problems for Pakistan in the development of nuclear power and capability. Mr. Goldschmidt, Director General of the French Atomic Energy Commission, said, "I never trusted anything Munir Khan said. He could lie while being charming. I never believed a word that he said."

The leaders of Pakistan must have smiled at such crude denunciations. The rivalry between the two groups suited them well. They heaped praise on A. Q. Khan, and allowed him to become wealthy. But they kept stringing him along.

Khan knew it, too, but apparently could not help himself. His ego was inflamed. He had developed such a need for power and recognition that there was little room for anyone else. It was frustrating to him that the weapons work at Kahuta was supposed to be secret: he could not shout to the world quite as loudly as he would have liked. In his interviews and speeches, which were increasingly frequent and long, he had a way of insisting that uranium was being enriched to only 3.5 percent, and purely for peaceful purposes, but then letting his pride get the best of him and proceeding at length to discuss the logic and technology of nuclear weapons. The pattern was strange. In part it stemmed from a deliberate position of nuclear ambiguity, similar to the Israeli choice to neither confirm nor deny; but to the extent that Khan kept talking and talking, it also reflected his personal needs. He was poor at keeping secrets, because he acted too clever when he lied. He was too eager to claim credit. His denials were not intended to be believed. What he seemed to be saying was We have the bomb, and because of me.

By 1986 Pakistan had crossed the threshold, and was able to fabricate several nuclear devices. Within a few months it put its new strength to use. Toward the end of the year India mounted a large military exercise on the plains along Pakistan's borders. The exercise was dubbed Brasstacks, as in "getting down to …" Pakistan responded by mobilizing its own troops, moving the two countries again toward war, and then apparently issued a veiled nuclear warning. It took the form of an interview that Khan gave to a freelance Indian reporter at his house in Islamabad in January of 1987, during which, according to the reporter, he reiterated earlier boasts that Pakistan had succeeded in enriching uranium to weapons-grade levels, and added, "Nobody can undo Pakistan, or take us for granted … And let me be clear that we shall use the bomb if our existence is threatened." Publication of the story was delayed for several weeks while the reporter shopped it around, diminishing its immediate effect—and Khan later denied having said any such thing, accusing the reporter of being a typical Hindu hack. But in India a message had been received nonetheless, and it would resonate for years to come. There may have been other messages as well. Despite subsequent Pakistani denials, the Indians claimed they had been threatened in Islamabad, through diplomatic channels. Moreover, at the time when the opposing armies stood face-to-face along the border, and India was contemplating a pre-emptive strike, General Zia flew to an Indian-Pakistani cricket match in India, where he sat beside Rajiv Gandhi and, it is alleged, at one point leaned over and said, "If your forces cross our border by an inch, we are going to annihilate your cities." Whether or not he spoke those words, India soon withdrew its army. And by the time the crisis was over, whatever warnings had or had not been sent, somehow Pakistan had emerged as a nuclear-weapons state.

Zia died in a mysterious airplane crash in 1988, and Pakistan entered a decade of political turbulence during which it endured various corrupt and incompetent governments, generally with the army holding real power in the background. For a while the White House continued to certify, as it had since the start of the proxy war in Afghanistan, that Pakistan was nuclear-weapons free. Maintaining that fiction was an annual requirement for providing Pakistan with financial aid. But after the Soviets withdrew from Afghanistan, in 1989, the fiction no longer seemed necessary, and with concerns about nuclear proliferation again predominating, American aid was cut off. The cutoff saved U.S. taxpayers some money, but of course it was sapped of moral weight by America's own nuclear stance, and in Pakistan, as usual, it failed to achieve the desired results. For Khan the sanctions were a point of pride. He had never been particularly religious, but his position was increasingly Muslim and hard-line. A Pakistani general asked him if he minded the descriptions of him in the West as an evil Dr. Strangelove, and Khan answered accurately enough: "They dislike our God. They dislike our Prophet. They dislike our national leaders. And no wonder they dislike anybody who tries to put his country on an independent and self-reliant path. As long as I am sure that I am doing a good job for my country, I will ignore all such insinuations, and concentrate on my work."

And concentrate he did. In the face of increasing export controls in the 1990s, Khan expanded his global procurement network and took it largely underground. At Kahuta he continued to improve the centrifuge plant, to tweak the laboratory's warhead designs, and to develop an alternative ballistic missile to one being built by the PAEC. He also led the laboratory into the design and manufacture of a variety of conventional weapons, including surface-to-air missiles, anti-tank weapons, multi-barrel rocket launchers, laser range-finders, laser sights, reactive armor, minesweeping charges, and armor-piercing tank rounds. On the civilian side Kahuta launched into the manufacture of electronic circuits, industrial switches and power supplies, and compressors for window-mounted air-conditioners. In 1992 it even established a Biomedical and Genetic-Engineering Division. Furthermore, it began to hold seminars and conferences on topics related to the experience of enriching uranium, including six International Symposia on Advanced Materials; two International Symposia on Mechanical Vibrations; the International Conference on Phase Transformations; three Vacuum Courses, some in cooperation with the Pakistan Vacuum Society; and, finally, every bomb-builder's favorite, the National Conference on Vibrations in Rotating Machinery.

In other words, Khan was going great guns. And he was having fun. Pakistan's nuclear position remained officially ambiguous, but once the American sanctions had been imposed, Khan was freer to praise himself for what he had done. Word filtered through the streets until even ordinary people knew of this grand man, and some recognized him as he whisked by in his cavalcades, surrounded by loyalists and guards. Medals and awards were showered upon him, and every one of them he counted, and every one, he felt, was justified. Ultimately he received six honorary doctoral degrees, forty-five gold medals, three gold crowns, and, twice, the Nishan-i-Imtiaz, Pakistan's highest civilian award. He played his fame for what it was worth. This was the era when he began to buy houses and luxury cars, and to go around bestowing grants on hospitals, mosques, and schools. He shared his wisdom openly, on many public occasions. He sat on the governing boards of more than two dozen universities and institutes. He was personable, charming, and sometimes apparently humble—though in the way politicians can be, without being humble at all. When people visited him at his office, he gave them pictures of himself. When those people were reporters, he allowed them to fawn.

REPORTER: You seem to be very fond of learning different languages. In fact, you appear to be almost a linguist. In how many languages have you attained proficiency, and how? Any comments on this rather strange blend of being an exceptionally brilliant scientist and a linguist? KHAN: I know a few languages. First of all, Urdu is my mother tongue. Then after the Partition I had to learn Hindi, which I still can read and write. Later on I learned some Persian. When I went to Europe, I learned German and Dutch. I know both languages quite well. While in Europe I also took some lessons in French. And of course English has been my second language all these years. I wish I could learn Russian and Chinese, but I couldn't find the time. REPORTER: Do you have any hobbies, and how do you relax after a strenuous day? KHAN: I used to go fishing, fly kites, and play hockey in my young days. Then I played volleyball at university. Now it is so difficult to do these things. I do some walking, and play with our dogs and cats. It is very relaxing. I also read quite a bit. We go to bed very late, usually after midnight, as my wife is also always doing something, knitting, reading, etc. REPORTER: Thank you, Dr. A. Q. Khan.

On two days in May of 1998 India broke a twenty-four-year hiatus and tested five atomic bombs—the largest of which was claimed to be a thermonuclear (fusion) device with a temporarily dialed-down yield of forty-three kilotons, roughly three times that of Little Boy, which took out Hiroshima. Independent analysts expressed skepticism about the stated size and nature of the explosions, but these were technical quibbles of little importance compared with the new political reality of an India that wanted to make such a show of its earth-shattering might. Just a few weeks earlier Khan's laboratory had successfully fired its new intermediate-range missile (a North Korean derivative dubbed the Ghauri) on a maiden 500-mile flight, and Khan had followed up with his typical saber-rattling and bluster. Flown to its full 1,000-mile range, his missile, carrying his bomb, could devastate Mumbai, Delhi, and a slew of other Indian cities, including Bhopal (perhaps occasioning bittersweet satisfaction). The missile's flight, however, does not seem to have played heavily into the Indians' decision to test—in part because of their tendency to view Khan as a bigmouth and a buffoon. In fact, physical preparations in India had been under way for a month, and the decision to proceed was made for domestic political reasons by the insecure leaders of the governing Hindu Nationalist Party, the BJP, who wanted to impress the masses with their strength. Sure enough, after the tests there was widespread jubilation on the streets. The celebrants ignored the possibility that the next time a nuclear weapon was ignited in India, it might be dropping in from Pakistan and vaporizing them.

In Pakistan the Indian tests were seen as a direct threat. Special attention was paid to an overexcited Indian home minister named L. K. Advani, who declared that Islamabad would have to submit to this reality, particularly as it affected the dispute over Kashmir, and that Indian troops would henceforth chase Kashmiri insurgents in "hot pursuit" right back across the border into Pakistan. So much for the sobering effect of atomic bombs. As part of the package, the Indian press was full of taunts, challenging the Pakistanis to show, if they could, that their nuclear arsenal was anything more than a bluff. Either way the Indians figured to gain: if the Pakistanis did not now test a nuclear device, they would demonstrate their weakness, with delicious consequences for the local balance of power; if they did test, and successfully, they would join India as a target of international sanctions, and would suffer disproportionately because of their greater dependence on the charity of the world. The Pakistanis knew they were in a bind. They had weapons ready to go, and had prepared a test site years before by boring a horizontal tunnel into the center of a desert mountain, in a remote district called Chagai, in the southwestern province of Baluchistan. However, they were getting clear warnings that if they answered India in kind, they would lose not merely direct American aid, which had slowly been increasing since the last cutoff, but also the large infusions of cash from other donor nations and international lending organizations that were keeping Pakistan's economy alive. A rare public debate broke out among Pakistani elites, during which a "peace faction" urged the country's leaders to assume the moral high ground and let India take the heat alone. The soon-to-be-deposed prime minister, Nawaz Sharif, accepted repeated calls from Bill Clinton and Tony Blair, who urged the same. Sharif hoped for positive inducements—solid security guarantees and financial payoffs—and some were promised. Public sentiment, however, was overwhelmingly in favor of a test, as was sentiment within the army—Pakistan's real center of power. After several weeks of hesitation the logic of the Subcontinent prevailed, and Sharif decided to proceed.

On the night of May 27, 1998, just hours before the scheduled test, word was received from Saudi intelligence that Israeli fighters, flying on behalf of India (of course), were inbound to take out Pakistan's nuclear facilities—specifically the laboratory at Kahuta and the test site in Chagai. Pakistan scrambled its own fighters and rolled its missiles out of their shelters in preparation to launch. Months later Khan gave an interview in which he was alleged to have said that at Kahuta that night nuclear weapons were loaded into the Ghauris—a statement he subsequently denied, and which for technical reasons seems dubious. In any case, the Indians responded immediately by preparing their own aircraft and missiles, and for a few hours the countries came close, perhaps, to a nuclear exchange. Had this occurred, it would have been just the sort of reflexive slaughter that people fear—particularly from countries like Pakistan, with insecure political and military institutions, primitive commandandcontrol systems, inadequate information sources, and ultra-short windows for response to their nuclear neighbors. But on the night of May 27, at least, the leaders of Pakistan had the sense to hesitate and pick up their phones. The United States and other nations assured them that they were safe, the Israeli attack never materialized, and May 28 dawned normally for the residents of the great cities on both sides of the border.

That afternoon a small group of Pakistanis associated with the weapons program, including, of course, A. Q. Khan, gathered in a concrete bunker in Chagai, facing the chosen mountain seven miles away. Pakistan later reported that five nuclear bombs had been placed inside the test tunnel where it hooked sharply, 800 feet beneath the mountain's peak. The bombs were fission devices, based on either the Kahuta or the PAEC's design, or both, and containing highly enriched uranium—though a remote possibility exists that a plutonium device was among those tested. The details remain secret. One bomb was said to be large, and four to be small. They were wired to detonate simultaneously—a practical arrangement that has led, however, to endless disputes about how many were actually involved. The official number of five was intended to match India's test exactly—with the special surprise of a sixth bomb tested elsewhere two days later, to one-up the score. The tunnel was sealed with heavy concrete plugs. At 3:15 p.m. a PAEC technician directly under Samar Mubarakmand, the leader of the test site, pushed the button, saying "Allah-o-Akbar!"—"God is great." After a delay of thirty-five seconds (during which, it is said, some observers prayed) the mountain heaved, shrouding itself in dust. The command post rocked. When the dust settled, the mountain's color had turned to white. In announcing the news Pakistan claimed a total yield that roughly equaled India's, of course, because if it was to be a response in kind, the numbers had to match. Independent analysts downgraded the actual yield by a factor of three—but so what? As far away as Cairo people danced in the streets.

Khan posed for pictures with the mountain behind him. He looked more subdued than pleased. It should have been his moment, the apogee of his life, and an occasion for the entire nation to praise his name. Khan-o-Akbar, people could have said; Islam has its bomb, and Pakistan is saved. Indeed, people did give him thanks, and over the next few years, by external appearance, he rose to new heights of glory and fame. But he was beginning to face serious troubles now—political forces that ultimately would lead to his arrest and disgrace—and a small but clear warning was being sent to him on that day. Control of the test had been pointedly awarded to the treacherous—no, traitorous—PAEC. Munir Ahmed Khan was seven years retired by then, but the institutional rivalry had not eased. Now this Samar Mubarakmand—a PAEC flunky, a carpetbagger, a twit—had been parachuted in to lead the site. It was Mubarakmand who had been given the honor of orchestrating the event. And Khan had been allowed to visit as a "courtesy."

This treatment continued after Khan flew back to Islamabad. There was no official delegation to greet him. That welcome was reserved for Mubarakmand, who arrived later, and was met by the prime minister and a cheering crowd of hundreds. Khan, in contrast, was met by a small group of friends from the Kahuta plant, who waited for him in the "VVIP lounge," and then drove with him to his house for tea with Henny. Khan looked haggard, perhaps because the near nuclear war had kept him up the night before, but more likely because of the frustrations of the day. Either way, he was not his normal irrepressible self. One of his companions at the tea recently told me that out of concern he had asked Khan what was going on, and that Khan had not responded. It was a shock, he said, because for once Khan had seemed uncertain.

But looking back now, seven years later, the answer can be known. In Pakistan people understand more than they will ever admit out loud. There are cultural understandings about what goes on, houses on the shores of Rawalpindi's drinking supply. Pakistan had its bomb, and it was a good thing, but the utility of Khan was almost over. He was a genuine patriot, much to be admired, but too strong for anyone's good anymore. If he had become a monster, as some said, then some in the government and the army were implicated too. Was he out of control? For the moment he just needed to be reined in, and reminded that he was just one among a number of important men. Khan's activities were if anything about to expand. But it was only 1998, and there was no thought yet that he would have to be destroyed.

by William Langewiesche

‘Nuclear Black Markets: Pakistan, A.Q. Khan and the rise of proliferation networks - A Net Assessment’

2007-11-30T12:01:00.000+05:30

SOURCES AND ASSESSMENT CHALLENGES

Some nuclear black market activity has been well-documented by various sources, including the International Atomic Energy Agency and the press. The IISS has also benefited from discussions with knowledgeable experts employed in both the public and private sectors. Naturally, much of the open-source information concerning such clandestine activity is fragmentary or ambiguous. In addition, some countries are reluctant to share information on illicit activities within their borders or involving their citizens. Where information is too fragmentary to make a firm judgement, we have made this clear.

Recognising the open questions, we have tried to present a balanced and cautious set of assessments on nuclear black markets. These include a history and overview of Pakistan’s nuclear programme and its imports; an analysis of A.Q. Khan’s proliferation activities involving Iran, North Korea and Libya; a review of the involvement of other states in the nuclear black market; an examination of the reforms made by Pakistan and the efforts undertaken by the international community to prevent the reoccurrence of another proliferation network; and an assessment of illicit trafficking in radioactive materials.

The dossier’s final chapter summarises our judgements about the current and possible future state of the nuclear black market in materials and technology, and assesses the policy options available to governments to minimise further illicit trade.

PAKISTAN’S NUCLEAR PROGRAMME AND A.Q. KHAN

Pakistan’s motivation to acquire nuclear weapons was sparked in large part by competition with India. Although the seeds of Pakistan’s weapons programme can be traced back to the early 1960s, the major boost came in December 1971 after Pakistan’s traumatic defeat by India. Embitterment over the loss of East Pakistan also provided a psychological motivation to Dr A.Q. Khan to offer his services to his home country by stealing enrichment technology from his workplace in the Netherlands. With that boost, it took Pakistan only ten years to reach the point where it could produce a nuclear weapon, despite the withdrawal of nuclear assistance from Western countries.

A.Q. Khan has been described incorrectly as ‘the father of the Pakistani bomb’, which exaggerates his contribution. Khan’s mission was to provide Pakistan with an indigenous capability to produce the enriched uranium required for an atomic bomb. After India’s ‘peaceful nuclear explosion’ in 1974, supplier countries became much more reluctant to sell sensitive technology to states suspected of harbouring nuclear ambitions. Part of Khan’s mission therefore was to circumvent increased controls on technology so Pakistan could obtain the imports it required to feed its nuclear programme.

Many of the techniques Khan perfected were replicated by other proliferating states. Pakistan has not been the only country to engage the private sector in nuclear technology to further a military programme. Others include Iraq, Iran, North Korea and, to a lesser degree, India. These countries have all relied on similar methods of black market procurement, including systematically using the country’s foreign embassies, paying a premium over the market price, using multiple connections and buyers to search for a given item, using front companies, falsifying end users, and altering product specifications so they would appear to operate below the international guidelines. Iraq, Pakistan and Iran all made extensive use of free ports, some of which have since tightened controls, while others still have a long way to go.

A.Q. KHAN’S ONWARD PROLIFERATION ACTIVITIES

From the outset, Pakistani governments gave A.Q. Khan a remarkable degree of authority and autonomy, partly because of the highly sensitive nature of his work, and partly because he was able to achieve tangible results. Concerns about foreign intelligence operations targeting Pakistan’s nuclear programme, and the increased secrecy and compartmentalisation that resulted, allowed Khan to operate more independently. An unhealthy rivalry with other Pakistani nuclear organisations contributed to even greater secrecy and shady business practices. Unquestioned, Khan began to order many more components than Pakistan’s own enrichment programme required.

As Pakistan shifted to a more advanced centrifuge design during the 1980s, Khan was left with an excessive inventory of older centrifuges and components that gave him and his foreign-based partners the opportunity for a more profitable business model by exploring export markets. In two notable instances, however – those of Iran and Libya – it may have been the interested customers reaching out to the network, rather than the other way around, although accounts differ on this and many other points. The dossier provides a comprehensive analysis of Khan’s business deals with Iran, North Korea and Libya, which began in the mid 1980s, and only came to an end with the roll-up of the network in late 2003 and 2004.

Khan’s contacts with Iran date from the mid 1980s, and extended into the following decade. Khan probably had some signal, if not explicit permission, from his superiors for nuclear cooperation with Iran. However, no evidence has yet emerged that a clear directive was ever given to Khan to provide nuclear technology to Iran. Khan provided Iran with centrifuges, technical designs, components and an ‘address book’ of suppliers. Some details concerning exactly what Iran received are still uncertain. What is clear is that Khan’s sales helped Iran to make significant advances in its clandestine nuclear programme.

In a written confession in 2004, Khan admitted to supplying North Korea with about two dozen centrifuge machines together with sets of drawings, sketches, technical data and depleted uranium hexafluoride (UF₆) gas. These items were probably transported to North Korea in unmarked containers on chartered Pakistani air force flights. This small number of centrifuges would have been insufficient to produce enough highly enriched uranium for a nuclear bomb. Along with the centrifuge designs Khan provided, however, they gave North Korea a template on which to base their own centrifuge production plans. As with the Iranians, Khan also reportedly provided a ‘shopping list’ to the North Koreans,which enabled Pyongyang to purchase additional components directly from other foreign suppliers. The transfers precipitated the breakdown of the US–North Korea Agreed Framework and Pyongyang’s resumption of its plutonium programme, with as yet unknown ripple effects.

Successive Pakistani governments have insisted that their country’s ballistic missile cooperation with North Korea was based on a cash payment, and that there was no official nuclear-for-missile technology exchange. Khan may have acted largely on his own volition, for his own profit. The broad cooperation between Pyongyang and Islamabad, however, is significant reason to suspect state complicity, at least in terms of having knowledge of and thereby implicitly condoning the centrifuge deal.

The Khan network’s business with Libya, which involved nuclear specialists, middlemen, and supplier companies from three continents, showcased the organisation’s complex and transnational nature. Libya had almost no pre-existing nuclear capability and wanted the Khan network to provide the entire enrichment process from start to finish. By the time of the Libya deal, the network had become a ‘globalised supply chain’. An official Pakistani nuclear connection with Iran and North Korea can be logically discerned, but the A.Q. Khan network’s cooperation with Libya is more puzzling, unless understood as a straight business deal.

Khan cannot be characterised strictly as either a government representative or a businessman acting independently. He was in fact both, in varying degrees according to the circumstances. Pakistan’s complicity in his proliferation ranged along a spectrum. At one end, his procurement for Pakistan’s nuclear programme was state authorised, supported and funded, although he had great autonomy in making his own purchases. At the other end of the spectrum, the Khan network’s sales to Libya of centrifuge equipment produced in Malaysia, Turkey, Europe and South Africa and transshipped in Dubai were almost exclusively private business transactions beyond state control. A 1990 offer to provide Iraq with enrichment technology and project designs for a nuclear bomb also appears to have been a private venture by the network, although the dearth of evidence makes it hard to draw conclusions.

PAKISTAN’S REFORMS

Whatever reasons led Pakistani leaders to ignore, acquiesce in, and in some cases possibly abet Khan’s nuclear-related sales, the terrorist attacks on New York and Washington on 11 September 2001 dramatically changed the dynamic, forcing President Musharraf to ensure that his country was not on the wrong side of the United States.

Many of Pakistan’s internal reforms since 2001, and then following Khan’s confession and confinement to house arrest in 2004, have been transparent and appear to have worked well. A robust command-and-control system is now in place to protect Pakistan’s nuclear assets from diversion, theft and accidental misuse. A.Q. Khan and his known cohorts are out of business and Khan Research Laboratories is now confined exclusively to enrichment work. These steps go some way toward overcoming the international opprobrium and label of irresponsibility that Pakistan earned as a result of the Khan saga.

However, there are still too many unanswered questions about the role Pakistani technology played in aiding nuclear programmes in Iran and North Korea for other countries to conclude that Pakistan has done all it can to account for Khan’s activities. His nuclear assistance to Iran led to a further breakdown in the global non-proliferation regime and an international crisis over a budding uranium enrichment capability that many fear could escalate to armed conflict. By freely selling enrichment equipment to at least three countries and putting the designs on computer disks, Khan significantly lowered the technical barriers to nuclear weapons development. Who else might have access to the nuclear technology he and his network proliferated remains a daunting question.

Pakistan has never made public Khan’s confession, the details of its investigation into the network, including who was arrested and who was simply detained ‘for debriefing,’ the charges and laws under which Khan’s associates were detained, the grounds for their release, or the identities of those who were put under a form of continued ‘house arrest’. The lack of transparency extends to Pakistan’s interactions with other governments. Privately, officials in various Western capitals are frustrated that Pakistan has stopped providing information on the grounds that the Khan interrogation is complete.

Light sentences meted out to nuclear scientists who met Osama bin Laden reflect a disturbing pattern reminiscent of the secrecy with which Khan was dealt. The understandable need to protect national security secrets conflicts with the government’s desire to dispel hints of lingering corruption in the nuclear programme, notwithstanding the multilayered internal security system that Pakistan has implemented since Khan’s heyday.

International conclusions about whether the Khan case is truly closed will depend on the world seeing a sustained record of responsible nuclear stewardship that lasts for successive administrations in Islamabad.

Fears that the India–US nuclear cooperation agreement will free up Indian domestic uranium for additional weapons purposes gives Pakistan an additional motivation to continue to produce weapons-grade fissile material of its own. Pakistan has resisted any nonproliferation regimes that it believes would give a ‘perpetual edge’ to India. This is one reason Pakistan has been the country most resistant to negotiating a fissile material cut-off treaty. However, an FMCT that froze arsenals at current levels, before India’s greater capacity took off, would appear to be in Pakistan’s advantage. Estimates of the number of warheads in both Indian and Pakistani arsenals vary widely, and each country tends to adopt a worst-case assessment of the other. Based on the best available information, there does not appear to be a significant overall imbalance in favour of either side.

If Pakistan were to conclude that it already has a sufficient credible nuclear deterrent and if India capped its own fissile material production then Pakistan would have no further reason to continue enriching uranium and producing weapons-usable plutonium. Nor, in this case, would it have an incentive to keep black market suppliers in place for its own nuclear weapons programme. An end to Pakistan’s enrichment-related foreign procurement and the evasion of foreign export controls that this entails would remove one obstacle blocking Pakistan’s receipt of the same exemption to nuclear supplier rules that President Bush offered India.

INTERNATIONAL REFORMS

In failing to exact harsh punishment on the domestic end of Khan’s black market network, Pakistan is hardly exceptional. Most of Khan’s foreign accomplices remain free and only three have been convicted and imprisoned. The international framework of export controls still contains serious gaps that could be exploited by a network similar to that of A.Q. Khan.

Firstly, many countries still lack laws and regulations governing trade in nuclear-related goods and technologies. Secondly, an even larger number of countries have yet to implement controls, as reflected by the lack of licences issued by national authorities. In many cases, governments have not identified potential exporting companies and educated them about export licensing requirements. As a result, firms sometimes unknowingly export controlled items without approval. Thirdly, only a handful of countries are actually enforcing controls with thorough investigations and strict penalties. As a result, exporters of dual-use items may calculate that the risk of being caught for exporting controlled goods without a licence is minimal. In fact, enforcement officials in most countries have few resources upon which to draw for targeting dual-use trade. Even worse, most Customs authorities are ill-equipped and poorly motivated to identify and detain controlled goods. Thus, although many states have officially committed themselves to enacting export controls, their effective implementation is still years, if not decades, away.

TRAFFICKING IN NUCLEAR MATERIALS

Nuclear-material trafficking differs from the nuclear technology black market insofar as it only involves radioactive materials. Although the final objective of both activities is the same – construction of a workable nuclear device – the means of achieving it are quite different: illegal acquisition of weapons-usable nuclear material from existing stockpiles versus the development of a complete infrastructure to produce such material.

The available data on nuclear-material smuggling are less alarming than the comparable known incidents in the illicit trade in nuclear technology. Assessing the magnitude of nuclear trafficking is a complex task, however, because the available data on thefts and seizures – while offering useful insights into the diversion schemes, trafficking methods, routes and actors involved – provide only a partial glimpse into what may be taking place. Thus far, little hard evidence of the direct complicity of proliferating states in any nuclear-materials trafficking cases has surfaced. In contrast, there have been various reports of attempted purchases of both nuclear material and actual warheads by terrorist groups, although none of these appear to have been successful.

UNANSWERED QUESTIONS

How much help Khan gave Iran and North Korea and whether the Khan network had other customers are questions of intense interest to investigative agencies. What happened with the rest of the nuclear equipment the Khan network had but did not send to Libya is another of the major questions remaining after the network was broken up, along with what other countries or non-state actors may also have received copies of a nuclear weapon design besides Libya. The bomb designs were apparently digitalised and copied onto computer disks at one of Khan’s offices in Dubai. One of the Swiss members of the network admitted to having atomic bomb construction plans in his own office. Swiss and American authorities, as well as the IAEA, have been trying to discover what other use may have been made of these bomb designs, including the alarming scenario of whether any copies were sold to terrorist groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Past Pakistani government knowledge of and even involvement in A.Q. Khan’s secondary proliferation activities remains open to debate. The connection between A.Q. Khan and the Pakistani government does not lend itself to easy delineation. The Pakistani government should have known what key officials such as Khan were up to in an area so fundamental to Pakistan’s national security and international reputation, and it is logical to assume that its intelligence apparatus did know more than Pakistan has ever let on. While knowledge of a transaction implies complicity, however, it does not necessarily denote authorisation. Most of Khan’s dealings were carried out on his own initiative.

Today, Iran remains the most active customer in the international nuclear black market and it has built a network equivalent to, if not larger than, Khan’s. Iran has sought dual-use goods from some of the same people and firms previously linked to Khan, but has also turned to new technology brokers. Although supplier countries have heightened their vigilance, Iran still tries to evade export controls by repeatedly changing front companies and financing arrangements.

Today’s black market suppliers are far less integrated than Khan’s ‘one-stop shopping’. His enterprise was unique in its ability to provide nearly the entire array of materials and services needed to produce highly enriched uranium. The supply side of the post-Khan market is comprised of individuals selling selected dual-use goods. It is the demand side, most prominently in Iran, that is centralised.

However, at least some of Khan’s associates appear to have escaped law enforcement attention and could, after a period of lying low, resume their black market business. Decapitating the nodes of non-hierarchical networks does not necessarily eradicate the enterprise. In seeking to pre-empt proliferation trends of the future, concerned governments should anticipate new ways in which black market suppliers may integrate their services. Future proliferation networks may assume various forms of quasi-state involvement, building on Khan’s previous blurring of the lines distinguishing private criminality from state-authorised activity. They will also follow Khan’s lead in fully exploiting the globalisation of manufacturing capabilities, which allows complex components to be produced in less industrially-developed states, and has further complicated efforts to control nuclear technology.

Up to now, the history of the non-proliferation regime has been a game of catch-up: regulators belatedly tighten controls after digesting the lessons learned from previous rounds of proliferation, but states intent on acquiring strategic weapons capabilities find new ways to keep one step ahead. Unless further reforms are made, and then rigorously enforced, it seems likely that this pattern will repeat itself.

The governments and international bodies that seek to control the trade in nuclear technology and related goods face a daunting task. Not only by analysing the historical and current activities of nuclear procurement and proliferation networks, but also by providing a thorough list of policy options, this dossier seeks to assist those engaged in this vital effort.

How you helped build Pakistan's bomb

2007-11-30T11:53:00.000+05:30

Globalization, what a concept. You can get a burger prepared your way practically anywhere in the world. The Nike Swoosh appears at elite athletic venues across the United States and on the skinny frames of T-shirted children playing in the streets of Kolkata. For those interested in buying an American automobile, a word of warning: it is not so unusual to find more "American content" in a Japanese car than one built by one of Detroit's Big Three.

So don't kid yourself about the Pakistani bomb. From burgers to bombs, globalization has had an impact. Pakistan's nuclear arsenal - as many as 120 weapons - is no more Pakistani than your television set is Japanese. Or is that American? It was a concept developed in one country and, for the most part, built in another. Its creation was an example of globalization before the term was even coined.

A proliferation chain reaction

So where to begin? Some argue that Pakistan started down the nuclear road under president Dwight D Eisenhower's 1953 Atoms for Peace program, billed as a humanitarian gesture aimed at sharing the peaceful potential of atomic energy with the world. But Atoms for Peace was a misnomer - a plan to divert growing domestic and international concern over radioactive fallout from America's nuclear tests. It would prove to be a White House public relations campaign to dwarf all others.

In fact, Atoms for Peace educated thousands of scientists from around the world in nuclear science and then dispatched them home, where many later pursued secret weapons programs. Among them were Israelis, South Africans, Pakistanis and Indians.

Homi Sethna, chairman of the Indian Atomic Energy Commission, spelled out the program's impact after his country tested its first nuclear device in 1974. "I can say with confidence," he wrote, "that the initial [Atoms for Peace program] cooperation agreement itself has been the bedrock on which our nuclear program has been built".

If you think that India's program, in turn, did not inspire Pakistan's, think again.

Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, the late Pakistani prime minister and father of Benazir Bhutto, first talked publicly about nuclear weapons in the early 1960s when he was Pakistan's energy minister. In his 1967 autobiography, Bhutto wrote, "All wars of our age have become total wars ... and our plans should, therefore, include the nuclear deterrent." But Pakistan's generals rejected his ideas, arguing that the cost of producing a nuclear bomb would cut too deeply into spending on conventional weapons. It wasn't until after Bhutto became prime minister that he officially launched Pakistan's nuclear weapons program in 1972.

Consider here, yet another atomic beginning: Pakistan, a poor, backward country, with little indigenous technical or industrial infrastructure, made next to no progress on the nuclear front, despite Bhutto's enthusiasm, until the arrival of Abdul Qadeer Khan at the end of 1975.

The Indian-born Khan had fled his home in Bhopal in the 1950s to settle in the new state of Pakistan. There, he went to university, quickly becoming frustrated by the lack of opportunity. Study and advanced degrees in Europe followed until, finally, Khan found himself working at the Physics Dynamics Research Laboratory in Amsterdam in the spring of 1972.

At the time, powerful companies like Westinghouse and General Electric controlled the facilities that provided enriched uranium to civilian reactors throughout the Western world. In 1971, in an effort to protect the fledgling US commercial nuclear industry, president Richard Nixon had ordered that the closely guarded enrichment technology not be shared with any other country, not even allies.

That led other nations to begin developing their own enrichment technology to ensure continual access to an adequate fuel supply. The lab where Khan was employed, known by its Dutch initials FDO, was the in-house research facility for a Dutch conglomerate that worked closely with Urenco, a consortium formed by the governments of Britain, West Germany and the Netherlands to design and manufacture centrifuges.

To cut right to the chase, Khan, who was able to work at the lab without serious scrutiny from the Dutch security police, found that he had easy access to the latest uranium-enrichment technology. Within three years, he had left the lab - in possession of plans for Europe's most advanced centrifuge and a shopping list of relevant equipment manufacturers, experts for hire, and sources for the necessary raw materials to enrich uranium for a nuclear bomb, all scattered across the globe.

Before leaving the lab, Khan wrote to prime minister Bhutto offering his services, and he returned to Pakistan to launch that country's own uranium-enrichment laboratory.

FDO was just the start of Khan's reliance on the outside world for bomb-making help. With the support of Pakistani scientists and military officers working undercover as "diplomats" at the country's missions around the world, he set up what became known as "the Pakistani pipeline", securing high-tech equipment from literally hundreds of companies in 20 or more countries.

While some of this is well known, a series of little-publicized letters between Khan and a Canadian-Pakistani engineer, Aziz Abdul Khan, in 1978 and 1979 offer a revealing look at the degree to which globalization shaped Pakistan's nuclear program. The so-called Islamic bomb turns out not to be an indigenous product, but instead a little bit American, Canadian, Swiss, German, Dutch, British, Japanese and even Russian.

Aziz Khan was one of dozens of Pakistani scientists living abroad whom Khan tried to recruit for what he described as a "project of national importance". According to the letters between them, while Aziz Khan declined the offer, he agreed to provide A Q Khan with scientific literature and to spend his vacations at A Q Khan's laboratory outside Islamabad, training and mentoring young engineers.

We obtained the letters - which cover the comings and goings of nuclear experts from nine different countries - from an American government official, who, in turn, received them from Canadian law-enforcement officers after they were taken from Aziz Khan following his arrest in Montreal in 1980.

These exchanges provide a rare behind-the-scenes glimpse into Khan's nuclear Wal-Mart in its infancy, long before he began peddling his finished wares to Iran, North Korea and Libya. After a decade of diplomatic rhetoric about the need to stop the spread of nuclear technology, they also offer a window into the ineffectiveness of American and European export controls. By setting these letters - often colorfully translated from Urdu by the Canadian authorities - against the backdrop of the news coverage of the time, you can see just how disturbingly international the assistance was that Khan received.

Buying 'ducks' from Russia

It was an exciting time for Pakistan's fledgling nuclear program. On June 4, 1978, A Q Khan wrote to Aziz Khan, describing early tests of his centrifuge designs, referring to the process of substituting helium for uranium gas as putting "air in the machine".

"June 4 is a historical day for us. On that day we put 'air' in the machine and the first time we got the right product and its efficiency was the same as the theoretical ... As you have seen, my team consists of crazy people. They do not care if it is day or night. They go after it with all their might. The bellows have arrived and like this we can increase the speed of our work."

Khan's international nuclear shopping spree was soon on display as he wrote proudly to his Canadian friend just a week later to recount the trip made by a member of his clandestine procurement network to Japan to obtain some critical, though unexplained help. "Colonel Majeed is back from Japan and thanks God all the problems have been solved. Next month the Japanese would come here and all the work would be done under their supervision."

The following month, he wrote Aziz Khan about one of his Pakistani proteges: "Dr Mirza is back from America. He had gone to get the training for the control room of the air-conditioning plant." In the same letter, he announced that "the plant of Switzerland has arrived", probably a reference to a specialized pumping system to move uranium gas in and out of the centrifuges during enrichment.

In August, the scientist told Aziz Khan that Colonel Majeed was on the road again, "leaving for Germany, England and Switzerland. He would be looking for cable and sub panels. Our friend from Kuwait will join us in November and in this way we will not have to worry about generators and emergency power supply. He has 15 years' experience." Within weeks, Khan wrote enthusiastically that "a German team was here. After staying five days, they went back. It was quite a busy time."

A Q Khan was also in the hunt himself. Mentioning that he had sent a cable to California, he wrote in the autumn of 1978, "If our two units are ready, then myself and Dr Mirza would come for thanks and maybe we could meet you." The "two units" was probably a reference to two huge air-conditioners that Khan bought from an unidentified US company.

In the spring of 1979, Khan would explain: "Dr Alam, Dr Hashmi and myself are going to Germany and Switzerland for two or three days. We have to buy some material there and then we will return through London."

Khan's project was seen abroad as a potentially profitable market, and the Russians, too, were rushing to sell their wares. Using a primitive code, Khan wrote: "Hopefully, in winter there will be ducks from Russia. This is a big job. Now the emergency generators are going to be installed very soon."

But all was not perfect. During the summer of 1978, a British member of Parliament asked why a British subsidiary of the American Emerson Electric Co was selling Pakistan the same high frequency inverter that Britain was using in its own uranium-enrichment project - and by the autumn, shipments to Pakistan had been stopped. Khan complained that a German supplier had tipped the British off when he did not get the nod on a business deal.

"That man from the German team was unethical. When he did not get the order from us, he wrote a letter to a Labour Party member and questions were asked in Parliament. Work is still progressing satisfactorily but the frustration is increasing. It is just like a man who waited for 30 years but cannot wait for a few hours after the marriage ceremony."

By the spring of the following year, Khan's team was feeling the strain. He once again wrote Aziz Khan about his troubles in a clumsy code: "For such a long time, no one has taken a single day's holiday. Everybody is working very hard so that by the end of the year, the factory should start working and should start providing cake and bread. Here there is shortage of food and we need those things very badly. From everywhere our food is being stopped."

Khan's success in obtaining nuclear material abroad did not go unnoticed. American intelligence watched his procurement operation and US officials occasionally complained in public, prompting Aziz Khan to write in June 1979: "There is no doubt that you guys made people here sleepless ... These days you are famous all over the world."

In August of 1979, still struggling, Khan wrote his friend of a deal that he could not consummate in Canada, probably a reference to difficulties in obtaining a specialized type of inverter essential to operating the uranium enrichment plant.

"You must be reading that your countrymen have decided to drink our blood. The way they are after us, it looks as if we have killed their mother. Their building of castles in the air has beaten the Arabian Nights. There is lots of pressure, but I have trust in God in doing my work. I am thinking, if I finish this job, then I would solve the purpose of my life."

Khan did indeed overcome the obstacles - with plenty of help from his friends around the world. And he had learned his lesson well. When he was finished helping Pakistan build its bomb, he turned his talents to another kind of globalization - marketing his wares, and those of his associates from Europe, Asia and South Africa, to a new set of clients.

by
Douglas Frantz, the former managing editor of the Los Angeles Times and a two-time Pulitzer Prize finalist, is a senior writer at Conde Nast Portfolio. Catherine Collins, a former Chicago Tribune reporter, is now a Washington-based writer.

The Real Musharraf

2007-11-16T12:51:00.000+05:30

The Real Musharraf

By Asma Jahangir from the Washington Post November 9, 2007

Asma Jahangir, a Pakistani lawyer under house arrest in Lahore, chairs the Human Rights Commission of Pakistan. She is a member of the international board of the Open Society Institute.

It was close to midnight last Saturday when Gen. Pervez Musharraf finally appeared on state-run television. That's when police vans surrounded my house. I was warned not to leave, and hours later I learned I would be detained for 90 days.

At least I have the luxury of staying at home, though I cannot see anyone. But I can only watch, helpless, as this horror unfolds.

The Musharraf government has declared martial law to settle scores with lawyers and judges. Hundreds of innocent Pakistanis have been rounded up. Human rights activists, including women and senior citizens, have been beaten by police. Judges have been arrested and lawyers battered in their offices and the streets.

These citizens are our true assets: young, progressive and full of spirit. Many of them were trained to uphold the rule of law. They are being brutalized for seeking justice.

Musharraf justified his draconian measures by saying he needed to be able to use all his might to fight the terrorists infecting our country. Yet the day after he declared an emergency, the Dawn newspaper reported that scores of terrorists were released by the government. While tyranny was being unleashed on peaceful citizens, the notorious militant Fazalullah (also known as Maulana Radio) had seized the beautiful town of Madyan, according to the Daily Times, and hoisted his "Islamic" flag over buildings while the security forces surrendered.

Musharraf has implied that militancy increased in Pakistan because of judicial interference in governance. But until this past March, the judiciary had yielded to all executive demands. Five years ago, the general dismissed the then-chief justice and his colleagues, charging that they were obstructing his process of democratization. What is democratic about a judiciary that's not independent?

In recent days police have raided the home of the president of the Supreme Court Bar Association -- his wife has gone into hiding -- and the law chambers of two former presidents of the bar. Their clerks have been harassed. Military intelligence officers are interrogating leading attorneys. Meanwhile, unknown lawyers are being elevated to the bench.

Since Saturday, police officers have barged into my house twice after receiving (false) warnings that I had escaped. On seeing me, they sheepishly admitted they were misled.

I have tried to make them understand the difference between people such as myself and terrorists. "If I did run away, how far would I go?" I asked them. "In any event, I am not likely to blow myself up around the corner." One police officer said that he agreed but that his job was at greater risk if I got away than if a terrorist escaped the law. Terrorists, he pointed out, outnumber rights activists in our country.

The officer argued that lawyers and judges hamper law enforcement. "How can we bring law and order if we cannot torture criminals? We must be given a free hand to deal with terrorists, and the chief justice has no business to ask us to produce them in courts. We are itching to lay our hands on all those judges who humiliated us for carrying out our duties," he told me. When I asked how he knew who the terrorists were, he insisted that the intelligence was infallible.

Yet he didn't know I hadn't escaped from my house.

The international community is alarmed at Musharraf's actions, but Pakistanis expected this. The Bush administration had built up the general as moderate and benign, but the true face of this regime has been exposed.

A balanced picture of Pakistan had begun to emerge in recent weeks. Thousands turned out to greet Benazir Bhutto upon her return last month; Pakistanis were progressive-minded enough to elect a female political leader years ago. Hundreds of progressive-minded lawyers have rallied for democratic values. I welcome Bhutto's call for the Pakistan People's Party to join the demonstrations.

But Pakistan is threatened by Islamist militants, and our civil society suffers the worst of this creeping Talibanization. Woefully, the Musharraf regime is neither inclined to reverse this trend nor capable of doing so. No one has exact solutions, but there is virtual unanimity that Pakistan's political leadership must take charge and that the military must cooperate with an elected civilian government.

Musharraf's promises to hold elections by Feb. 15 or to resign from the army are a red herring. He has pledged before to give up his uniform and failed to follow through. Any election held under these circumstances will not be free and will only put the crisis on hold. Furthermore, militarization will kill the spirit of the progressive forces while boosting the terrorists' morale.

A transition to democracy is crucial, but unless freedom of the press and the judiciary's independence are restored, any changes will remain toothless. It will be difficult to put Pakistan on the path to democracy, but we must begin now, before it is too late.